Mini Russell notes 12/06/2005

P

phillyflipper

687.20 is the top of Monday's value . If 687.20 is support we can trade to
691.60 which is the top of the 5 day bracket. the top of this bracket can
provide resistance. If we go through this bracket we can trade to 695-700 no
one really knows but shorts will be forced to cover.

If 687.20 is resistance, then we can trade down value to 684.00
If 684.00 breaks down then we can go to 677.50



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Quote from phillyflipper:

687.20 is the top of Monday's value . If 687.20 is support we can trade to
691.60 which is the top of the 5 day bracket. the top of this bracket can
provide resistance. If we go through this bracket we can trade to 695-700 no
one really knows but shorts will be forced to cover.

If 687.20 is resistance, then we can trade down value to 684.00
If 684.00 breaks down then we can go to 677.50

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More...

How do you plan on trading your analysis ???

What I mean is this...I see a few if statements in your analysis.

For example, 687.20 can be either a support level or a resistance level.

Therefore, the key question here is what does ER2 need to do for you when it reaches 687.20 to determine if its support or resistance ???

Then your following statement begin with another if statement...followed by some specific numbers then followed by the infamous no one really knows statement.

If we go through this bracket we can trade to 695-700 no
one really knows
More...

My point is if no one really knows...why make such a statement in the first place ???

I'm not trying to debate your analysis.

I just need a little more clarification to understand how you trade this type of dynamic s/r level that has two faces sort'uv speak.

Think about, if ER2 reaches 687.20 as a support and moves back upwards...

Your analysis is correct.

However, if ER2 reaches 687.20 as a resistance and moves back downwards...

Your analysis is correct.

Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
 
I understand the dilema, which is why trading works. You see 687.20 can be both support and resistance at different times during the trading day. Market profile is not predictive it is an interpretation of the Market participants. I will wait at least 25-30
minutes to see which side of this area holds up.....sometimes you need to wait an hour and sometimes like yesterday the move happened more quickly

Today for instance we can trade up first to 691.60 near the bracket. Now you must decide will we go through the bracket or trade back down. who will get scared first?? Will the shorts cover
and push price higher or will the commercials see real value and keep buying or will the commercials responsively sell the top of the bracket??

You see, I am providing points of reference but no really knows how the market will actually trade those reference points.

Pre-market we are trading above value and below the bracket.
We are in no man's land. we must wait to see how the market acts around 687.20 and 691.60.

You must always be evaluating the market as it trades to try to pick up clues. This is no easy game
 
Quote from phillyflipper:

...I will wait at least 25-30
minutes to see which side of this area holds up.....sometimes you need to wait an hour...
More...

Hi phillyflipper,

Thanks for the clarification.

Out of curiosity, how do you determine which side of this area (687.20) is going to be either support or resistance ???

If that question gets too deep into the private specifics of your trade methodology...

I understand if you can't provide any specifics.

Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
 
Mark, you have to wait and see and evaluate. Right now we are in the middle of two reference points so there is no trade until we see who is in control......longs, shorts, floor, or combination

I know you want an absolute. but the only absolute is that there is no absolute. i know it sounds like I am talking out of both sides of my mouth but that is because this is what the Market has taught me. The language of the Market is there but we have to learn the language. I am still learning.
 
Quote from phillyflipper:

Mark, you have to wait and see and evaluate. Right now we are in the middle of two reference points...
More...

Yes...completely agree.

My s/r analysis and trend analysis has me currently on the sidelines for ER2 and in the market for EuroFX.

Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
 
Mark, the ER today answered your question and visually explained my point that a price can be both support and resistance in the same day and result in probable trades in each case.

691.60 was first resistance and then it became support. I could not have told you this is how it would trade but it gives you an idea of what you are looking for and where you are looking
 
Problem is that not many 'probable' trades result in *profitable* trades for a lot of guys.


Quote from phillyflipper:

the ER today answered your question and visually explained my point that a price can be both support and resistance in the same day and result in probable trades in each case.
More...
 
Quote from phillyflipper:

Mark, the ER today answered your question and visually explained my point that a price can be both support and resistance in the same day and result in probable trades in each case.

691.60 was first resistance and then it became support. I could not have told you this is how it would trade but it gives you an idea of what you are looking for and where you are looking
More...

Yes...its common knowledge that a specific price can be support at a particular time and be resistance another particular time.

What I was curious about what is it that price must do when it reaches a support level to tell you its a Long signal or a Short signal.

Just the same...what does the price action need to do to tell you that its either a Short signal or Long signal when it reaches a resistance level.

You've already answer a little of that via the following...

Quote from phillyflipper:

...I will wait at least 25-30
minutes to see which side of this area holds up.....sometimes you need to wait an hour and sometimes...
More...

Also, to let you know where I'm coming from with this...I myself do not use s/r levels as entry signals.

Instead...I use them as profit targets.

Thus, if I get a trade signal that happens to occur at a key s/r level for me...

It's just coincidence.

Further, my s/r levels are based upon candlestick reversal and continuation patterns.

Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
 
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