MILLIONS of small businesses at risk of closing for good!!

[lovethetrade]

They are in for the long term. Loaded on cruise lines as well

It will be interesting to see whether such a strong gambling element and blind optimism pays dividends on this occasion. My personal opinion is the market should reward some degree of prudence and patience however, what it should do and what it does can be two different things.

 

[gaussian]

This doesn't surprise me at all. Small businesses don't carry a ton of cash. 1-20 employee companies are probably cash strapped most months. The hardest hit businesses will obviously be service businesses, and my SWAG is that these comprise most small businesses due to the relative ease of starting one.

I posted a figure a while from the BLS that showed 60% of Americans are employed in the service industry. I wonder how many of these Americans are employed by a small business.

Government keeps printing money, no one thinks this will cause inflation?
World long overdue for depression, should have had it in 2008, but American citizens baled out the banks.

Inflation is unlikely. American dollars are a reserve currency and any money people make will likely be stuffed under mattresses for the foreseeable future. Consumerism will likely die the death it deserves for a good while. This would point to deflation in my eyes. It will be interesting to see what tricks the fed pulls out of it's hat to induce spending by consumers. Car lots might be a leading indicator - locally they are offering 72 month or more loans just to get cars moving.

For our sake I hope we don't plunge into a depression. Suicides may outpace coronavirus deaths if that happens.

 

[Overnight]

...Consumerism will likely die the death it deserves for a good while...

God bless you if this turns out to be true. We have been inundated with runaway consumerism for way too long. WHO THE HELL NEEDS A SALAD SHOOTER™!?!

Teehee.

 

[lovethetrade]

If all the problems we're dealing with were simply fixed by a flattening of a curve or an announcement of stimulus, which one would presume was forthcoming anyway, we'd all be trillionaires.

Global health pandemic and economic depression.
The opportunity of a lifetime. Buy the dip.
A toast to our good fortune, darling.

 

[FrankInLa]

I am confused. Nobody here freaks out over poorly managed large corporations going bankrupt. But when the same dumb people manage a small business then we ought to save such business? How is this a good thing to keep small businesses alive that are constantly cash strapped? Sounds to me that some here are talking their books rather than argue coherently. Or should I be convinced that small businesses that are at the brink of collapse each single month pay their employees great salaries that can feed entire families? Sorry, I don't buy that.

 

[maxpi]

The US is preparing to flip it's strategy. Instead of quarantining the entire population we will quarantine the people at risk and let the rest of us get back to business. Meanwhile our adversaries will be doing their socialism s%^t, or their authoritarian dictatorship s^&t or whatever and we'll be back to building the greatest economy ever in all of history.

 

[vanzandt]

Commercial REITS....
Oh are they gonna feel some pain. The 2 trillion dollar band-aide will help for now, but its not gonna raise the dead. (That would be the tenants btw.)

Leasing rates per sqf were already off the charts and so many businesses were barely getting by to start with. Tomorrow, if any of you get out and about.... look at the various businesses in your local high end strip center. I mean obviously they'll all be closed... but think real hard about the kind of cash flow those places needed to pay employees and make that rent every month. The numbers weren't there to start with tbh. These triple-net leases... pfff.... we are looking at default city. And to boot, you can bet your ass all these municipalities in which these fancy centers reside... will have no choice but to raise taxes. In a big way. They aren't the Feds... they have to have a balanced budget. Insult to injury on the store-owners.

Even if a vaccine came out in 6 months... there is so much damage done as it stands right now, it is sooo plain to see. I'm not making light of it and I'm not being a bear... I'm just calling it the way I see it. I mean if someone else see's it playing out differently, I'm all ears.

And you can bet, another couple trillion of aid is damn near a given. How that plays out... pfff... I have no idea. I hear people on here say "the dollar is the world's reserve currency so it doesn't matter". Well I'll plead ignorance on understanding that logic, I mean maybe its true.... but at some point there has to be a line. There has to be, else we could have free college and free meds and free everything right? What am I missing? Newton's laws in some way shape or form have to apply to finance. I would think.

Whatever. Beats me... but I do know REITS that are geared towards commercial retail... and they're all high end retail centers btw, stuff that's been built in the last 15 years with investor money, ... they're f'd. You can mark this post.

 

[FrankInLa]

Greatest, ever, biggest, most, history... Sorry, but this sounds like a broken record. Nothing has been great and nothing will ever be great for the average Joe in the US. What has always been great, is great, and will be great is life for the top 1%. Otherwise, scholastic aptitude sucks, health care sucks, job security sucks, welfare sucks, life expectancy sucks, safety and security sucks, tax levels suck, hunting and fishing sucks (formerly accessible land is being more and more privatized). Life for the average Joe sucks big time and will suck for the foreseeable future. So, not sure what you are talking about. By the way before you question my above points, each single one can be easily looked up online and in international comparison tables. Of course, the mind can be greatly deluded. Life may appear to be on the up swing when one lived in the trailer park before and had to hitchhike to the factory job and now advanced to rent a room in the suburbs with a Ford Focus parked in the drive way. ;-)

What we need in the US is a total reset, formatting of the disk. A new start. A new self definition.

The US is preparing to flip it's strategy. Instead of quarantining the entire population we will quarantine the people at risk and let the rest of us get back to business. Meanwhile our adversaries will be doing their socialism s%^t, or their authoritarian dictatorship s^&t or whatever and we'll be back to building the greatest economy ever in all of history.

 

[FrankInLa]

Sounds about right, and here is the perfect example of a system that only benefits one of two groups. The picture you paint affects everyday people. Contrast that with the stock market and who mostly profit from that. The dispersion could not possibly be more pronounced.

Commercial REITS....
Oh are they gonna feel some pain. The 2 trillion dollar band-aide will help for now, but its not gonna raise the dead. (That would be the tenants btw.)

Leasing rates per sqf were already off the charts and so many businesses were barely getting by to start with. Tomorrow, if any of you get out and about.... look at the various businesses in your local high end strip center. I mean obviously they'll all be closed... but think real hard about the kind of cash flow those places needed to pay employees and make that rent every month. The numbers weren't there to start with tbh. These triple-net leases... pfff.... we are looking at default city. And to boot, you can bet your ass all these municipalities in which these fancy centers reside... will have no choice but to raise taxes. In a big way. They aren't the Feds... they have to have a balanced budget. Insult to injury on the store-owners.

Even if a vaccine came out in 6 months... there is so much damage done as it stands right now, it is sooo plain to see. I'm not making light of it and I'm not being a bear... I'm just calling it the way I see it. I mean if someone else see's it playing out differently, I'm all ears.

And you can bet, another couple trillion of aid is damn near a given. How that plays out... pfff... I have no idea. I hear people on here say "the dollar is the world's reserve currency so it doesn't matter". Well I'll plead ignorance on understanding that logic, I mean maybe its true.... but at some point there has to be a line. There has to be, else we could have free college and free meds and free everything right? What am I missing? Newton's laws in some way shape or form have to apply to finance. I would think.

Whatever. Beats me... but I do know REITS that are geared towards commercial retail... and they're all high end retail centers btw, stuff that's been built in the last 15 years with investor money, ... they're f'd. You can mark this post.

 

[gaussian]

I am confused. Nobody here freaks out over poorly managed large corporations going bankrupt. But when the same dumb people manage a small business then we ought to save such business? How is this a good thing to keep small businesses alive that are constantly cash strapped? Sounds to me that some here are talking their books rather than argue coherently. Or should I be convinced that small businesses that are at the brink of collapse each single month pay their employees great salaries that can feed entire families? Sorry, I don't buy that.

Small business is the heart of American economy. The True American Dream. Start a small business, employ a few family friends, maybe a few neighbors, and grow yourself and your community into something it never dreamed of becoming. The manifestation of the true power of a free market, and a free people.

Corporations are blight on our society. The worst of capitalism made manifest. We are seeing this today with the billionaires doing buybacks and then begging for the tax payer to come and save them. The Fed printing money endlessly to save the specter of what we once stood for, the laws written to prevent people from properly competing against well funded and well armed teams of lawyers designed to stifle innovation and small business. The corporations are not Americans. Americans do pull themselves up by the bootstraps. Americans define themselves by their struggle. Let the corporations suffer. Save small business by any means necessary. It is the American way. Americans do not enrich the billionaires. Americans enrich themselves, their family, and their neighbors.

We have lost our way. I can only hope this is our call to find it again. You are either for small business, a bulwark of free commerce, or you are against the very foundation America was built on. It truly is that simple.