Quote from jbt:
I have an intern at the office who is just starting to learn trading and we were going over the charts in GBPUSD today.
Her first inclination was to try to bottom pick and go long. This is such a common novice mistake and brings to mind an observations made by one of our interviews Ashkan Balour.
"Turn Happens Only Once but Trend Is Continuous
For anyone who is a fade trader trying constantly to pick tops or bottoms, Ashkan Balourâs deceptively simple observation should provide a moment of pause. He states, âBasically I am a continuation trader. When the trend is going in that direction, I donât see any point in trying to find the turn. It will tell you when itâs reversed. If a daily reversal. Reversal only happens once, but the continuations happen all the time until the moment the reversal is hit.â In a sense, Ashkan argues rather persuasively that the higher probability trades occur with the trend since, like in physics, price will stay in motion until it is counteracted by a stronger opposing force. Until such time comes, Ashkan believes, it is much more productive to trade in the direction of the major trend."
If you look at sterling right now the news is clearly supportive to the downside as the Northern Rock fiasco unfolds. Therefore instead of looking to book 25 pips on a bounce it may be more productive to make 100 points on a further slide down.
Can sterling bounce? Of course. That what stops are for. But the easy money is likely to the downside.