Midnight rally

MacroEvent,

Crude usually rallies late in the week. Every Week. I could go into the reason --but I dont the have the time tonight. To put it short, Crude has acted like this since the first gulf war.

Cheers on your Crude. I am long Naz, ER2 and trading the YM/ES for and against. Santa Claus Rally is opun us. I plan on holding this for a while. barring a close under my magice number.

My models are not VERY bullish ----damn the river when I say.
 
Quote from jackbyrd:

Microevent, dear sir, do you ever have a losing trade? Last night the market may have come off a few ticks, yet early in the day it was once again in gap nirvana. I find it quite intriguing how you maintain this second account of yours. The one that always seems to be in the opposite direction of your winning trades. Do you maintain a personal "error account" sir? Is this how every trade is a sure fire winner accompanied by the finest and most excuisite hindsight analysis in the business? Thank you and good night sir.
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i was not in any trades in both my long es account and short es account at the same time today --- never had a situation or need to be in both today?

my midnight rally trades hit some of their targets --- the rest of the positions were just flattened prior to the news release so i could set up my bracket trade. once the news hit only my long side was triggered into a trade at 1219.75, so i was in this trade until my normal profit targets were filled and then very few runners were held until i plotted my first short signal. when my rules allowed a short trade about 10:00 i flattened my last few long runners and entered a new short trade --- i was not in both directions at the same time today for my position trades.

i am only in hedge positions {when needed} if price is trading between s/r levels that i watch --- if price trades beyond one of these levels then the hedge side is held and i flatten {at a loss} the original trade position entry --- nothing magical there.

if you ever want to do a good "news release" bracket trade you should have and use two separate accounts also --- much easier to manage. during a fed release or a heavy news release morning you want to have the ability to grab trades in both directions {with separate long and short accts} that wont right away cancel each other out from the wild whipsaws you can get at times {from trying this from only one acct}. having two separate accounts is really no big deal at all --- i do not get all the anguish from people like you about this subject. :confused:

there are many things in life you better have two of! :D LOL!
 
Quote from MacroEvent:

i was not in any trades in both my long es account and short es account at the same time today --- never had a situation or need to be in both today?

my midnight rally trades hit some of their targets --- the rest of the positions were just flattened prior to the news release so i could set up my bracket trade. once the news hit only my long side was triggered into a trade at 1219.75, so i was in this trade until my normal profit targets were filled and then very few runners were held until i plotted my first short signal. when my rules allowed a short trade about 10:00 i flattened my last few long runners and entered a new short trade --- i was not in both directions at the same time today for my position trades.

i am only in hedge positions {when needed} if price is trading between s/r levels that i watch --- if price trades beyond one of these levels then the hedge side is held and i flatten {at a loss} the original trade position entry --- nothing magical there.
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thank you for the follow up sir.
 
Quote from MacroEvent:

did you notice last night i listed "Oil" first on my list and then today we get a $2.00 run in oil ---- oil is stubborn to the downside when the hedgies keep playing it and the world keeps questioning demand to supply equations.

you don't have to be Mortimer DOOM all the time --- when the market gives a good reason to go long then do just that {long signal mixed with buy program activity} --- this way you do not have to fight the rallies. I am currently using the rallies as new opportunities to take short position trade entries when my signals dictate --- with a bit more position size then usual.

don't fight the rallies ---- use them patiently as a pause to get better pricing for your next justified short signal. also use your long signals to profit from whatever rallies we can get during a higher time frame downtrend from this years highs.
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Are you taking bigger short positions than usual because we are currently at the rightside(top) of the LT down trend?
 
i have been heavier short since the september 12th lower high from this years high {and we have made a lower low now below the 8/30 SPX low --- downtrend confirmation}. we have oil holding the 60's, inflation is trending upward, and most of the rallies the last two months {just like the one we are in now} have been powered by mainly european/foreign buyers {not ma and pa and all their friends out stuffing the mutual funds with new liquidity}. the foreign buyers tend to yank their funds out quick with no warning for whatever reasoning, and then as a result we have been getting some real big drop days for three months now.

actually mutual funds still have net outflows in effect --- not a bullish sign. some fundamental shifts would have to take place for me to not load up when i am getting my short signals --- they have been very strong for three months now. if it wasn't for all the foreign buyers and companies buying back there stocks in record numbers the market would be in real tough shape at this point.
 
has anyone reviewed recent data on if this is still happening ? ( AH rally in stock index futures )

should not the HF quants etc by now have been able to reduce the "easy money" angle of this approach ?

( i.e. buy AH in afternoon session after any bad news earnings etc and hold until open next day )

perhaps AH gaps higher due to great earnngs
or some other news reduces the chance on those days of "easy money" for a trader following this strategy ?
 
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