Midnight rally

Quote from vulture:

yeah, its par for the course these days. I've thought long and hard about it recently and I have come to my own conclusion.

The big money, I believe, is acting on the idea that the next major trend in the equity markets will be down. As such, the true volume and selling comes into the market (hence lots of volume on the declines, less volatility, volume, natural price action on the rallies).

If you take a look at the component stocks in the DOW Industrials, you would have a hard time making a case that those stocks are being accumulated. All I see, in general, are alot of stocks breaking down through the channel lines, trendlines, etc from those lows back in late 2002, early 2003. The leadership in the Nasdaq pretty much got annihilated in early 2005, and the big cap techs started selling off in the middle of 2004. The energy stocks have clearly been one of the main components holding up the entire SP 500, and to a lesser extent I guess you could argue part of the Dow.

Meanwhile, the yield curve is flattening big time and now the Financial stocks are beginning to drift sideways to lower. They have not really confirmed the last rally higher in the indices. Albeit the past week or so with that merger did give a boost to the financial index.

I firmly believe that the rally in May-June was more of a final distribution rally. There was something along the lines of a "stealth bailout" at work after the shit hit the fan with GM, F and tech stocks were starting to accelerate lower. Now that the quarter has ended, I don't believe the institutions are going to support the markets up at these levels, rather they want in, if at all, at a bigger discount.

Some guy on CNBC Europe had a good quote the other day. He basically said while Greenspan was talking about the long end of the yield curve being the conundrum, the real conundrum were the equity markets. Considering the macro forces at work, I have to agree with the guy.

Anyway, everyone feel free to flame away...
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Lets hope the employment report, and up coming earnings reports and guidance will create some movement. I really don't care which way it goes just as long as we get some juicy swings of 300-500 points in the Dow, last year is starting to look real good compared to this year. This year is really testing my will as a trader.
 
Quote from vulture:

yeah, its par for the course these days. I've thought long and hard about it recently and I have come to my own conclusion.

The big money, I believe, is acting on the idea that the next major trend in the equity markets will be down. As such, the true volume and selling comes into the market (hence lots of volume on the declines, less volatility, volume, natural price action on the rallies).

If you take a look at the component stocks in the DOW Industrials, you would have a hard time making a case that those stocks are being accumulated. All I see, in general, are alot of stocks breaking down through the channel lines, trendlines, etc from those lows back in late 2002, early 2003. The leadership in the Nasdaq pretty much got annihilated in early 2005, and the big cap techs started selling off in the middle of 2004. The energy stocks have clearly been one of the main components holding up the entire SP 500, and to a lesser extent I guess you could argue part of the Dow.

Meanwhile, the yield curve is flattening big time and now the Financial stocks are beginning to drift sideways to lower. They have not really confirmed the last rally higher in the indicies. Albeit the past week or so with that merger did give a boost to the financial index.

I firmly believe that the rally in May-June was more of a final distribution rally. There was something along the lines of a "stealth bailout" at work after the shit hit the fan with GM, F and tech stocks were starting to accelerate lower. Now that the quarter has ended, I dont believe the institutions are going to support the markets up at these levels, rather they want in, if at all, at a bigger discount.

Some guy on CNBC Europe had a good quote the other day. He basically said while Greenspan was talking about the long end of the yield curve being the conundrum, the real conundrum were the equity markets. Considering the macro forces at work, I have to agree with the guy.

Anyway, everyone feel free to flame away...
More...

Fantastic analysis... thanks for sharing that.
 
Quote from Rickshaw Man:

Lets hope the employment report, and up coming earnings reports and guidance will create some movement. I really don't care which way it goes just as long as we get some juicy swings of 300-500 points in the Dow, last year is starting to look real good compared to this year. This year is really testing my will as a trader.
More...

The beautiful thing is that the market can only stay quiet for so long before things go haywire, as global unity is to jumbo shrimp. This spring and summer has been reminiscent of 1994, when the index volatility was about the same, and that was the worst it was for the next ten years.

Stay the course!
 
Quote from Rickshaw Man:

Lets hope the employment report, and up coming earnings reports and guidance will create some movement. I really don't care which way it goes just as long as we get some juicy swings of 300-500 points in the Dow, last year is starting to look real good compared to this year. This year is really testing my will as a trader.
More...

What happened to the midnight rally guys . . . the 4th weekend mess it up??

I can only hope there was an "all in" prior to the weekend and you got out about 9 am EDT this morning. I never wish ill will on anyone but when people spout clearly bogus stuff that this thread contains it hurts traders that are trying to learn the consistencies of the Market.
 
just woke up late.. thats all


never fear holding long futures overnight... you shall always be rewarded..


there is no risk as you can always get out at least b/e and you dont even have to wait past the first hour of trading..


all aboard$$$$
 
Quote from EqtTrdr:

just woke up late.. thats all


never fear holding long futures overnight... you shall always be rewarded..


there is no risk as you can always get out at least b/e and you dont even have to wait past the first hour of trading..


all aboard$$$$
More...

Nothing like changing the rules to fit the situation . . . Rock On!
 
there is still ample time to rally before opening, but there was a quick 10-point drop on ES and 5-point on ER2. always a good time with the overnight crew :D

take care and gtty -

omni
 
Quote from omniscient:

there is still ample time to rally before opening, but there was a quick 10-point drop on ES and 5-point on ER2. always a good time with the overnight crew :D

take care and gtty -

omni
More...


Midnight crew on their coffee break, will return soon.
 
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