Middle East Meltdown and US Foreign Policy.

Quote from southamerica:
Now you know that I did work for Sir John Templeton at Templeton... Mr. Roberto Marinho ... Hélio Costa at Globo in New York... Jose Sarney
...Fernando Cardoso... President Lula ...
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Well no, I actually don't know any of that. I know you say you did. But you may well have done so.

As I mentioned, I commend you for providing your real name on this site, if in fact it is your real name. Most people would not do this.

You have told us how prescient your articles are, how widely published you are, that you know Sir John Templeton and that you count among your friends many former and current heads of state. That is all great. As I have said, in my experience, the most credible people are the ones who do NOT tell others all the famous people they know, or how good they are at predicting future events, or how well educated they are, or how widely published they are. The highest quality people don't need to make these points themselves - they become self evident and others are the ones singing their praises. If a person is singing his own praises, as you are here, it makes me a bit suspicious.

I do not discount the possibility that everything you have said is true. In any case, let us end this. I will say it again - I admire you for providing your real name here, if this is in fact your real name.

Carry on posting your excerpts.
 
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TraderNik: I do not discount the possibility that everything you have said is true.



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July 22, 2006

SouthAmerica: I did mentioned many of these people on my articles over the years, and I could mention the name of a lot more people if I wanted.

September 2001 – “The B-Files”
http://www.brazzil.com/content/view/6752/39/

If you read “The B-Files” published in September 2001 then you will understand my connection with former president Sarney. By the way, in October of 2005 I went to New York City for the Book signing of the latest book published by president Sarney.

Professor Gregory Rabassa translated president’s Sarney book from the Portuguese to English language. President Sarney met professor Rabassa when I was trying to take off the ground The Brazilian Cultural Society.

Quoting from “The B-Files”:

The Board of Directors of The Brazilian Cultural Society is being drawn from a select group of elite academia, government, and business leaders. The board already includes among its founding members some world renowned intellectuals such as:

1) Nélida Pinõn. She is a world renowned Brazilian intellectual and one of Brazil's most important contemporary novelists. She is a member of the Brazilian Academy of Letters. She was the first woman to hold the position of president of that prestigious organization. She has received the highest prizes in literature in Brazil and also in Latin America. Many of her books have been international bestsellers such as Caetana's Sweet Song and The Republic of Dreams.

2) Professor Gregory Rabassa. American translator who was largely responsible for bringing the fiction of contemporary Latin America to the English-speaking world. Of his more than 30 translations from Spanish and Portuguese, perhaps the best known is Gabriel Garcia Marquez's One Hundred Years of Solitude (1970). Mr. Marquez was a 1982 Nobel Laureate in Literature. He also has translated works of Machado de Assis and Jorge Amado.

3) Professor Carlos Guilherme Mota. One of the most important Brazilian historians today. He is a prolific writer and has published a long list of history books.

4) Ambassador Flávio Miragaia Perri, an Honorary member of the board. Currently he is the Consul General of the Brazilian Consulate in New York.

Ambassador Perri also has pursued one of the passions of his life in the field of literature, and his works include various books of poetry.

Former President of Brazil, Mr. José Sarney, is the latest person to accept an invitation to become a member of the board of directors of the Brazilian Cultural Society. It is an honor to our organization to have such an illustrious man as a founding board member.

Mr. Sarney's long career in public life started as a Deputado Federal (1956- 1966), then governor of the state of Maranhão (1965-1970) , then Senador representing the state of Maranhão (1970-1986) and the President of Brazil (1985-1990). After ending his presidential mandate he returned to political life after being elected Senator. Currently, José Sarney is a Senator representing the State of Amapá. Mr. Sarney is a member of the Brazilian Academy of Letters, and he has been a prolific writer and has a long list of published books. He also contributes to major Brazilian newspapers, and he writes articles for such newspapers as O Globo.

The José Bonifácio de Andrada e Silva Center for Brazilian History Studies

The mission of the José Bonifácio de Andrada e Silva Center for Brazilian History Studies is to foster awareness and appreciation of Brazilian history and to serve as an international scholarly resource for research through the collection, preservation and dissemination of materials relating to Brazilian history. The goal is to become a "national archive" of Brazilian history from 1500 to 1900 with a strong focus on the period 1800 to 1900; a period which will cover Brazilian Independence in 1822 and the Proclamation of Republic in 1889.

The objective is to create an Internet database to document this period of Brazilian history, and its holdings will become the preeminent resource for scholars, students, filmmakers and publishers who want to study or document Brazilian history from this period. This database will be available and accessible, without charge, on the Internet to anyone around the world with an Internet connection. The objective is to further the study of Brazilian history by creating an international forum in which scholars of other countries can interact with other scholars and share the results of their research with their peers.

There will also be a newsletter where the scholars will be able to publish the results of their research, in turn, enriching further the Brazilian history experience. Conferences and seminars for historians will be organized, and lectures for general audiences will be offered.

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Enough of my bio and background - Now going back to the subject of this thread.



July 22, 2006

SouthAmerica: No other US president worked as hard in trying to settle the Israel/Palestinian problem in the Middle East than Bill Clinton did during his presidency.

He almost accomplished his goal for peace in the Middle East, but the other parties were not interested in real peace in the area.

In my opinion, Bill Clinton should not waste his credibility, and stature in trying to go to the Middle East on behalf of the Bush administration. The current mess in the Middle East is part of George W. Bush’s miscalculation and it is part of his mess together with Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, north Korea, Somalia, and so on….

George W. Bush broke it, and now this massive mess is on his tab.

Bill Clinton should not waste his political clout and ability, charisma, reputation, political capital, international influence with this lost cause. At this point, things are so out of control in that area of the world that it would be silly even to consider such a strategy.

Let George W. Bush screw things up around the world and the Middle East beyond anyone’s imagination. Let’s see if George W. Bush will reach the highest level of incompetence of any US president since 1776.

I agree with Senator Dianne Feinstein – today a team of incompetent amateurs is handling US foreign policy.

It does not help also that we have a “Jackass” in charge of the US government.



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“Call for Mid-East role for Clinton”
From correspondents in Washington
News.com.au - July 21, 2006


A TOP Democratic lawmaker has called on US President George W. Bush to enlist his presidential father George Bush and predecessor Bill Clinton to help resolve an escalating Middle East crisis.

Senator Dianne Feinstein said she welcomed a US plan to send Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to the Middle East as early as next week to weigh in on the growing conflict between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah militia.

But Senator Feinstein told MSNBC television: "I do not believe that junior people can handle this situation. I don't believe they have the clout".

"That's why I have suggested that this president would be well served if he would take two former presidents - one of whom, namely Bill Clinton, knows more about what it takes to settle this crisis than virtually anybody else - and ask them to go there for a substantial period of time," she said.

By comparison, Senator Feinstein said, Ms Rice would not spend more than two or three days in the region before returning to Washington, without the necessary "clout" to resolve the tensions.

At the State Department, spokesman Sean McCormack confirmed that Ms Rice "does intend to travel to the region. She intends to travel to the region as early as next week".

But he declined to provide a precise itinerary.

Former presidents Bush and Clinton teamed up at George W. Bush's behest to rally international help following the 2004 Asian tsunami, and again to raise funds for victims of Hurricane Katrina in the southeastern United States.


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July 22, 2006

SouthAmerica: One more time the current crisis in the Middle East is showing to the world why a country such as Iran, North Korea, and many others around the world including Brazil needs to arm itself with nuclear weapons.

The entire world is just watching a nation going up in flames and being destroyed and no other country – Arab or otherwise - are coming to help Lebanon on its hour of need when attacked viciously by a superior power.

By the way, the Serbs still waiting for the Russians to show up to help them when the US destroyed their country in the 1990’s.

The lesson that all the countries of the world should learn is that you are on your own if another country attacks your country. Basically, you can’t count on anybody other than your own people to defend your country.

The current Israeli attack on Lebanon is the ultimate proof that Iran, and North Korea needs to justify and to continue their nuclear weapons program. The reality is: If you don’t take care of your own protection, no one will come to your help when you need it.

I don’t understand why the other Arab countries are not putting their armies in the frontier in a show of support to its Arab neighbors.

The current beating and destruction that Israel is giving to Lebanon it is insane – Israel has one of the best armies in the world, and Lebanon is a weak country that it is just recovering from a long civil war.

Lebanon is no match to Israel on the battlefield – and I hate to see such a weak country as Lebanon is today, being destroyed by such a superior army – armed by the latest weapons available anywhere.

The rest of the world is doing nothing to help the Lebanese people – and I don’t know why the entire Moslem world is not rising to the occasion and are not coming to the rescue of the Lebanese people.

By doing nothing the other Moslem countries in the area are saying we are afraid of Israel and it is better for us to put our tail between our legs and play dead as the Russians did when Serbia was annihilated by the US in the 1990’s.

Today, the Arab countries in the Middle East remind me of the old saying: a dog that barks don’t bite – and right now they can all role over and play dead.


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SouthAmerica,

I do not condone Israel's current military action in Lebanon nor do I support the Arab countries' tacit approval of terrorism on their soils.

The big question that pops in my mind is how come a small speck like Israel become a super power amidst the giant camels in the mideast? The Saudis, Iranians, Iraqis previously and other Arab regimes had tons of money to develop a mightly military and obliterate Israel.

I think the Arabs, instead of concentrating on their mutual enemies, concentrated on fighting amongst themselves. In keeping their generations of hostilities, fighting with neighbors, they just stuck to their medieval attitudes which lead to their weakened status. So, right now, Israel can come in and do as it pleases, kick their butt, wipe their (Israel's) butts with bedouin headgear and do whatever they please. The Arab leaders are now too scared to do anything, just trying to cling to their hold on power.

Without strong Arab leadership coming from the moderates, their agenda will remain hijacked by the fanatics and they will linger in notoriety, and after oil is gone, they will just revert to the bedouins and persona non grata that they were before.

Just my thoughts. By the way, your analyses on the Iraq civil war a few months back was excellent. You were ridiculed by the Klansmen on this board, but the killings of this week proved your point.
 
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Tradermaji: The big question that pops in my mind is how come a small speck like Israel become a super power amidst the giant camels in the mideast?

Without strong Arab leadership coming from the moderates, their agenda will remain hijacked by the fanatics and they will linger in notoriety, and after oil is gone, they will just revert to the bedouins and persona non grata that they were before.

Just my thoughts. By the way, your analyses on the Iraq civil war a few months back was excellent. You were ridiculed by the Klansmen on this board, but the killings of this week proved your point.



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July 22, 2006

SouthAmerica: Because many of my articles have been published in the Middle East, on Arab countries, a number of Arabs contacted me via email because they thought that I would give them support regarding implementing democratic ideals on their countries.

But they were surprised with my response when I told them that democracy is incompatible and very hard to implement when the economy of your country is dependent for revenues mostly of one commodity – in their case Oil.

It is no coincidence that we have dictators, strongmen, and absolute monarchies controlling much of the oil resources around the world – Canada, Mexico and Norway are exceptions to the rule.

But when a very large part of national income is generated from one commodity – the person in charge of the money does not need to develop democracy on their countries since most social programs are paid from the oil revenue.

In many cases the government of these countries also doesn’t have an incentive to develop other industries or types of income flows to develop their economies and create new jobs to their populations.

I must have turned a lot of people off regarding this subject of democracy, because they stopped writing to me.

The Arab countries are a very complex subject and it can’t be explained in simple terms.

Regarding the Jews, all I can say is that they are a very smart bunch of people, and it does not matter where they go they prosper and educate well the new generations of Jews. You take any country that has a Jewish population and you find them among the well educated and the money elites. Just look what they did to Israel – they started with a piece of desert many years ago and turned it into a very productive land and they developed an advanced industrial base – they even have the most advanced types of nuclear weapons developed anywhere. It is a big accomplishment by any measure if you consider that they were able to do all that with the possibility of a war breaking out against them at any time.

I am not anti-Semite, or anti-Jew, because I am making comments on this subject. I am very disappointed of the Jews in Israel, because what I see on American television is the Israeli army armed with powerful tanks, state-of-the-art jets and Helicopters and heavily armed army – killing Palestinians in Gaza and other places who are armed with stones, and Molotov cocktails. No wonder they have to resort to suicide bombers to try to scare the population of Israel at least a little bit.

I don’t understand why the Jews have not developed over the years some kind of tolerance and try to accommodate the underdog the best way they could – in this case the Palestinians – to avoid this kind of ruthless destructive shows of force. The Jews, in my opinion, should be aware more than anybody else about the power of repression, and ruthless force that other people could have against your kind – Hitler’s Germany comes to mind.

After so much harm were done to them (the Jews) in the past - and I hope there is a lesson to be learned here - how come they can turn around and do the same to much weaker people such as repression and aggression against the Palestinian and Lebanese people.

I don’t know why Israel is acting more like a “Fascist State” than anything else and trying to destroy a much weaker neighbor with a ruthless brute force

The Israelis must have some other kind of agenda behind what they are doing to Lebanon, because what they are doing it can’t be justified just because they are trying to recover 2 Israeli soldiers who were kidnapped in that area of the world.

The Arabs need a leader to unify them and create a powerful front. But that is almost impossible to happen, because they are divided on among themselves in sectarian sides – Shiites and Sunnis. Right there, there is problem that I have no idea how they can resolve.

Osama Bin Ladden is the leader of the radical Sunnis and there are a few guys who are the leaders of the radical Shiites. I have no idea who is the leader of the moderate Arabs. (Maybe Saddam Hussein) - Just kidding.

You said: “You were ridiculed by the Klansmen on this board, …”

I am used to deal with these people who try to ridicule what I write about; they are people who don’t agree with what I say on my articles. The Bush administration and the defenders of these clowns use very often that strategy to try to discredit the people who are writing articles against them. That is the only way they can fight back, since they are in the wrong side of most issues – the issues that are destroying not only the foundations of this country, but also is undermining United States credibility about everything around the world. These clowns are turning the United States into a “Banana Republic” and we need to stop them before they achieve their goal.


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By the way, I know why the United States mainstream media can’t refer to Iraq as a “sectarian civil war” – if they do that – then there is no reason for the US army to stay in Iraq another day – and the American people would demand that the US army return to the United States from Iraq immediately.

Only fools would try to be a babysitter to two sides – maybe more – fighting a nasty sectarian civil war.

But again, we don’t have the smartest people running this country today – if anything they have proved time and time again what a bunch of incompetent people they are.

Today Washington has become a fool’s paradise.


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Quote from southamerica:

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The Israelis must have some other kind of agenda behind what they are doing to Lebanon, because what they are doing it can’t be justified just because they are trying to recover 2 Israeli soldiers who were kidnapped in that area of the world.

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There are a couple things at issue here actually. In addition to kidnapping the soldiers Hezbollah began lobbing missiles into northern Israel. Most importantly, the IDF's motto is NO MAN LEFT BEHIND, and the ARABS KNOW THIS VERY WELL. This is why they kidnapped them instead of simply killing them, a direct provocation intended to obtain either the prisoner exchange they claim to seek, or to get exactly what they got. In their pre-attack considerations the possibilities that it would go this way HAD to be calculated by Hezbollah. They knew that one way or the other the IDF would be coming for those soldiers.
 
Quote from southamerica:

I don’t understand why the Jews have not developed over the years some kind of tolerance and try to accommodate the underdog the best way they could – in this case the Palestinians – to avoid this kind of ruthless destructive shows of force...
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Maybe it's because the people who oppose them have sworn that they will not stop until they have wiped Israel off the face of the earth and murdered every Jewish man, woman and child.

What do you think, would that be a good reason?
Quote from southamerica:
The Arabs need a leader to unify them and create a powerful front. But that is almost impossible to happen, because they are divided on among themselves in sectarian sides – Shiites and Sunnis. Right there, there is problem that I have no idea how they can resolve.
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100% correct. The fanatics are just as likely to kill each other as they are to kill non-Muslims.

It's interesting to me that people bemoan Israel's reaction to the kidnappings. Certainly Hezbollah aren't bemoaning Israel's reaction - they counted on it. Anyone who believes otherwise is misinformed. Those who control Hezbollah anticipated and desired this reaction. Does anyone believe that Iran or Syria or Hezbollah themselves would have any compunction about sacrificing a few hundred Lebanese civilians to achieve their political aims?

After all, sacrificing one's life in the course of the war against the infidel is an honour... right?

Sure, Israel's reaction has caused a hugely disproportionate number of casualties among Lebanese civilians. Again, Hezbollah anticipated and desired this. So should Israel take the high road?

From their perspective, I am just not sure what would be accomplished by showing weakness. And make no mistake, that's how it would be perceived in the fanatical Arab world. Israel is saying "every time you take an action like this, you can anticipate a swift and sure response". Unfortunately, that attitude of total mutual mistrust characterizes the Israeli-Arab relationship now.

Time will tell if Hezbollah and their puppet masters accomplish what they want with this latest action.
 
Quote from claywilk:

There are a couple things at issue here actually. In addition to kidnapping the soldiers Hezbollah began lobbing missiles into northern Israel. Most importantly, the IDF's motto is NO MAN LEFT BEHIND, and the ARABS KNOW THIS VERY WELL. This is why they kidnapped them instead of simply killing them, a direct provocation intended to obtain either the prisoner exchange they claim to seek, or to get exactly what they got. In their pre-attack considerations the possibilities that it would go this way HAD to be calculated by Hezbollah. They knew that one way or the other the IDF would be coming for those soldiers.
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Here's a very interesting thought. The kidnapping was orchestrated by the Mossad itself by setting up a similar situation to 9/11 or the Burning of the Reichstag. They laid the easy "bait" and then led the enemy ( not intelligent to begin with ) to the bait and allowed the enemy to kidnap the bait. Keep in mind that Israel does'nt dare fart without the U.S. allowing it to, and since we're dealing with evil ( Dubya and Klan ) of the worst magnitude, this is a possibility that must be considered. The question then is, what is Dubya and Klan trying to accomplish? I think they're orchestrating the beginning of a major global conflict which they think they can win.

The Israeli soldiers that were kidnapped on the Lebanese front were Druze Muslims and to top it all off the kidnapping was preventable. Here's the analysis from an Israeli General himself on the Gaza kidnappings.

http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1183

Maj.-Gen (Ret) Giora Eiland traced the breakdown which allowed a Hamas-led squad overrun an Israeli army post on the Israeli side of the southern Gaza border, kill two soldiers and snatch Corporal Gideon Shalit on June 25, to an “operational” breakdown. He did not lay it at the door of commanders and their conduct.

“None of them lied or failed to perform their duties,” said Gen. Eiland, former national security adviser, in the report on the inquiry the chief of staff entrusted him to carry into the causes of the incident at the Kerem Shalom post.

Most damningly, Eilat affirmed that the corporal’s abduction could have been aborted. The kidnappers and their hostage were clearly visible on the unit’s electronic screens as they crossed the border into the Gaza Strip, but the tank commander delayed by first asking his superior for permission to open fire and abort their flight.

The only action Chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz took on receipt of the report Monday, July 10, was to announce he had raised the matter in conversation with a number of commanders. Halutz made no mention of how he would handle Eiland’s comprehensive denigration of an “operational breakdown - from battalion and brigade level all the way up to the top of the division and general staff.
 
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