Me thinks the scenario might be a bit different.
Oracle has bought Sun and now Oracle is able to deliver desktop - to - server solution. This desk-to-server is what has in the past made IBM strong .The companies left IBM because IBM put them in a straight jacket which killed initiative. Along came the Apple computer for graphics and then IBM answered with the PC but only after a long time graphics came to the PC.
I think we will see businesses going towards Solaris on the desktop (in a straight jacket by Oracle) because the present generation of managers has not been in the IBM straight jacket.
Micro$hit does not have a dektop-to-server market penetration, they tried hard but could not. Look at Novell having survived - my dad thought they would be out of business when M$N moved into the server business.
Cannot help but still seeing windows for the foreseeable future as the "masses" operating system. We've tried Linux and there is always something that ain't just right. It may be dual screen, or sound, or the latest driver unavailable or whatever. You think Joe Bloggs will put up with that?
Look at Sony with the playstation - you make no money on selling PC's to businesses but you make money selling stuff to the sheeple.
Now with the economy going the way it is then you can expect people cutting back on luxury goods - and let's face it: replacing that aging PC is luxury. You don't need a new PC to surf the web and read email. And the digital camera and photo processing stuff is acceptable enough and not a driving force to upgrade. The PC is now a mature product and one can expect a PC to work for 5 years or even longer. You really think people will buy a PC if they have trouble paying their mortgage? As in any depression: luxury goods are the first to go. The other item to remember is that people are trying so hard to make a living that they are too tired in the evening to even try to learn a new way of doing things with Linux.
just my $ 0.01
Maria
