Micro E-mini Madness (2% per day)

sstheo said:
The March of the Bulls (27 days and counting) and my "reversion to the mean" style are somewhat incompatible. I haven't learned enough yet to just "go with" the bulls - to more and more new All Time Highs.
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That's why trading is so difficult and why one particular style, i.e., reversion to the mean or trend following won't work in the long run. That's also why every single year there's a great money manager we don't hear about the next year.

Markets may revert to the mean, but how far can they go before doing so? Much further than you think. And you don't need to use your imagination either. Just check price history.

If we use the last years as a reference there's really nothing new about the kind of market we've been seeing for the last month or so.

One significant change we've seen though (and which tends to be typical for a rising market) is that volatility and the VIX is shrinking. Perhaps this might be when your performance became worse?

10-Day Average Range ES / 2019

10 Day Range 2019.png



To be honest - with that small an account and a pressure to withdraw $500 per month, your chances of building that account to substantial capital is very small. It's not that big if you didn't have the need to withdraw money either.

What's your plan moving ahead? Is there any chance you'll be able to save up capital to fund a larger account which you can trade without having to withdraw money? Would it be better for you to swing trade?

Having a demanding business on the side and a wife can't be helping your situation either. I'm not suggesting you get rid of your wife of course - just saying.

Good luck on your future endeavors. Been nice to see your posts here. :)
 
Laissez Faire said:
That's why trading is so difficult and why one particular style, i.e., reversion to the mean or trend following won't work in the long run. That's also why every single year there's a great money manager we don't hear about the next year.

Markets may revert to the mean, but how far can they go before doing so? Much further than you think. And you don't need to use your imagination either. Just check price history.

If we use the last years as a reference there's really nothing new about the kind of market we've been seeing for the last month or so.

One significant change we've seen though (and which tends to be typical for a rising market) is that volatility and the VIX is shrinking. Perhaps this might be when your performance became worse?

10-Day Average Range ES / 2019

View attachment 213008


To be honest - with that small an account and a pressure to withdraw $500 per month, your chances of building that account to substantial capital is very small. It's not that big if you didn't have the need to withdraw money either.

What's your plan moving ahead? Is there any chance you'll be able to save up capital to fund a larger account which you can trade without having to withdraw money? Would it be better for you to swing trade?

Having a demanding business on the side and a wife can't be helping your situation either. I'm not suggesting you get rid of your wife of course - just saying.

Good luck on your future endeavors. Been nice to see your posts here. :)
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Great chart and thoughts, thanks. Want to keep the wife. I should finally be funded with Leeloo (Natural Trading) this month. I had the same profitability issue with them the last few weeks, but it is finally coming together. They key, as always, is just staying alive.
 
Bobiz said:
This is another terrible day indeed.You inspired some of us a few weeks ago by your remarkable performance before the market rhythm changed,compounded by your missteps of premature withdrawal,quitting to concentrate on prop trading combine.Then came back after a few days to wander about in the market thereby validating the concern that @Seaweed,and @digitalnomad raised in 27th October.
Did you pass the combine and now a funded trader?
I'm very disappointed that you failed to achieve the $10,000 target.You have the potential of making it real big in the market if you can learn more deeply about your chosen assets,and how not to sabotage yourself.I wish you whatever you wish yourself.
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Thanks for the many posts Bobiz.

The "sabotage" was indeed self inflicted by not having clear expectations up front with my wife and by not yet being able to either (1) go with the massive bull runs or (2) stay OUT at the right times.

Almost done with Leeloo. And I had a nice surprise in my email. LeeLoo just asked me to do an interview with them for their new website because they like the way I trade. I told them I was honored, but I told them I need to successfully finish this eternal @#$%&! combine first and then stay alive as a funded trader for two weeks first.

I was pretty excited to get to the $10,000 mark myself. Once I get the Leeloo account, I will take everything I learned here and pace myself and either fix the bull-run issue or stay flat.
 
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sstheo said:
Great chart and thoughts, thanks. Want to keep the wife. I should finally be funded with Leeloo (Natural Trading) this month. I had the same profitability issue with them the last few weeks, but it is finally coming together. They key, as always, is just staying alive.
More...

Sounds good. Keep us posted and good luck. :)
 
A trader needs a tool box of skills, tactics, techniques, for trading strategically in the markets through all the market cycle. The market is in a range. It BO's of the range usually with a spike (but not always) this may go on for a few bars the there will be a PB. At that point it is entering a channel. The BO and the channel are the trend phase of the cycle. Then the channel after several bars morphs into a range. So Range to Trend (two parts BO and channel) to Range.

First off A TRADER NEEDS TO IDENTIFY THE phase the cycle is in. Next a trader needs to identify where price is at in the phase. Finally, a trader needs to employ phase specific tactics, techniques, and setups. And make sure the trader know how to set the proper SL's for the phase and the PA in that phase.

There are several tactics and techniques for EACH phase. The more appropriate ones for the particular PA in the particular phase should be the ones used.

Finally, as food for thought all instruments, even those with tendencies towards mean reversion, all have the phases. If you just use mean reversion tactics when trends start you will lose.

Need a toolbox of tactics and the skill to use them which also includes knowing when to use them AS WELL AS HOW.

I do have a journal thread and as I find time I go into great detail. Some of you may want tp follow along.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-trading-the-es-nq-ym-mes-mnq-and-mym.336259/
 
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My wife rarely hears of my losses. Three reasons:

1) I don’t have that many successive losses.

2) Trading is my business not hers. Hers is jewelry. I don't meddle in hers and I don’t want her meddling in mine. (she has her bank accounts I have mine LOL...I do put her name on most of mine just in case I kick the bucket..she SOMETIMES puts my name on hers..LOL)

3) I don’t like a bossy demanding wife. If I want to tell her about a loss I will. If not, I won’t. More often that not she hears about my market wins as opposed to my losses ROFLMAO. This makes her happy. However, if she gets bossy with me I throw it right back at her...worse. She knows this.

We operate different than alot of couples. She manages her money. I manage mine. We don’t lump it all together for me to make all the decisions nor for her to make them. Nor do we make it a consensus decision day to day dealings of how finances are spent; hers or mine. However, we will make a consensus decision on major decisions. But even then I carry the final decision in the event of a tie..OR indecision. LOL... I pay the day to day living expense out of my money and any loans we make together. Her money is basically hers to do whatever she wants to do with it. I encourage her to do whatever she wants to do with it to please herself. If I loan her money of any significant amount we write it down and each of us initial it on each repayment. If she loans me any significant amount we do likewise and that way we avoid any disagreements on money.

We been married 42 years and are in love....a much deeper love than when we met in 1977. Neither I, nor her, have been married before.

As you can see #3 is important to me.

However, I would literally die to save my wife if harm were to come her way.

Everybody is different and each couple has to do what floats their boat.

One standing rule we have since the first week of our marriage is that if we have a disagreement we will not allow it to fester. We settle it before we retire for the night. We start each day FRESH. There have been a few occasions we broke that rule but I would say 99% of the time we make settlement before retiring VERY INTENTIONAL. On the few times we broke it, we usually, upon awaking the next morning, immediately settle it. If I am wrong I say “I am sorry and acknowledge it and ask for forgiveness”. She does likewise if she is wrong. If we are both wrong (and that is often the case) we both own up to it and do what is right to straighten it out.
 
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Do not let the sun go down on your wrath...is wise indeed...My wife and I with our marriage of 32 years live that way also. I prefer she makes all the decisions. I joke with her and tell her I am the head of the family but she is the neck (she turns my head).

She is gentle and kind to me and I never feel she is domineering or overpowering.

But I do feel I am letting her down with my losses in trading. I so much want to turn it around but my winning streaks never last long enough. I love to trade and want to continue and that's what success would allow me to do...I do not want to be a millionaire, I just want to work with my numbers and trade. No one is going to help me...I have been there and done that...it is up to me.

ES

volpri said:
My wife rarely hears of my losses. Three reasons:

1) I don’t have that many successive losses.

2) Trading is my business not hers. Hers is jewelry. I don't meddle in hers and I don’t want her meddling in mine. (she has her bank accounts I have mine LOL...I do put her name on most of mine just in case I kick the bucket..she SOMETIMES puts my name on hers..LOL)

3) I don’t like a bossy demanding wife. If I want to tell her about a loss I will. If not, I won’t. More often that not she hears about my market wins as opposed to my losses ROFLMAO. This makes her happy. However, if she gets bossy with me I throw it right back at her...worse. She knows this.

We operate different than alot of couples. She manages her money. I manage mine. We don’t lump it all together for me to make all the decisions nor for her to make them. Nor do we make it a consensus decision day to day dealings of how finances are spent; hers or mine. However, we will make a consensus decision on major decisions. But even then I carry the final decision in the event of a tie..OR indecision. LOL... I pay the day to day living expense out of my money and any loans we make together. Her money is basically hers to do whatever she wants to do with it. I encourage her to do whatever she wants to do with it to please herself. If I loan her money of any significant amount we write it down and each of us initial it on each repayment. If she loans me any significant amount we do likewise and that way we avoid any disagreements on money.

We been married 42 years and are in love....a much deeper love than when we met in 1977. Neither I, nor her, have been married before.

As you can see #3 is important to me.

However, I would literally die to save my wife if harm were to come her way.

Everybody is different and each couple has to do what floats their boat.

One standing rule we have since the first week of our marriage is that if we have a disagreement we will not allow it to fester. We settle it before we retire for the night. We start each day FRESH. There have been a few occasions we broke that rule but I would say 99% of the time we make settlement before retiring VERY INTENTIONAL. On the few times we broke it, we usually, upon awaking the next morning, immediately settle it. If I am wrong I say “I am sorry and acknowledge it and ask for forgiveness”. She does likewise if she is wrong. If we are both wrong (and that is often the case) we both own up to it and do what is right to straighten it out.
More...
 
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