I’m glad for him, but any strategy that depends on luck won’t cut it. I shoot the shit on ET for interaction, but at the same time want fellow traders to follow the path with the most certainty, and I mean that sincerely.
Micro E-mini Madness (2% per day)
- Thread starter sstheo
- Start date
How do you know his strategy depends on "luck"?
If you really have well-wishes for fellow traders, and wish them to follow a path with most certainty, then who are you to piss in his Cheerios without understanding what he is doing in detail on his journey?
And do you have a journal in the journal section? I forget.
Will we have a chance to piss in YOUR Cheerios if we do not agree with the path you are travelling?
Prove your worth and show your girth with YOUR real money trades. Else GTFO of Theo's journal with your dissuasion. It is totally unhelpful and rude.
To be honest, I have my doubts as well. I have already shown 2 trades of his that were outside of parameters that he was setting for himself. We have also only seen maybe 5% or less of the trades, so who really knows what the other trades were, and what red flags lurk in there.
Now don't get me wrong, I'm totally rooting for @sstheo , but I'm experienced enough to be able to see the potential speedbumps.
So first it starts with being totally transparent with yourself about the trades. (not saying he has to show us here, but he just has to know for himself). There are probably more trades in there that had a deeper drawdown. He has already shown on Friday how he got it wrong, and although losing $100 is no big deal, it does certainly affect the stats. This is why 2% per day is an impossible dream. Maybe 20 ticks per day, averaged over time is sustainable, and of course when your account gets bigger you increase the contracts, but this 2% is a very random goal and pipe dream in my opinion.
Furthermore, he just stated that he is under pressure from his wife. This is a huge obstacle that I'm not sure can be overcome. If she is giving him a timeline, its pressure that will make it difficult to always make the best decisions.
Plus, we don't know why he gave up on the idea to go with the full contracts in his other account. If its a loss of confidence, then this is a factor that will heavily weigh down on future performance. In fact, his worst date came after the decision to continue with the micros. Are the two related?
Now don't get me wrong, I really, really, really want him to do well. I hope that all these other trades are just like the previous ones and that its just a string of losses that will happen in any statistical system. He has always bounced back, and there is no reason most likely why he cannot again, but this has to be shown.
All your points of conversation are valid. What gets my goat, though, is when someone says "you will never do it", or "it is impossible" when it is a modest goal, and especially in their own journal thread? No way. It is NOT impossible.
sstheo is dealing not only with this place, but the trading chat room he is helping to admin, his own personal life, and other bits. He has a bit on his plate. If he has a bad day, OK, it is a bump in the road.
I will NEVER EVER accept any argument from someone who comes into someone else's journal and says they will fail on their journey. That goes against my grain.
You can do that in any other section, sure! Trading, stocks, chit-chat, politics, even PMs, etc. Fight it out there. But NEVER in the actual journal. That is how my mind is partitioned. I'm just weird that way. :-(
Uh oh.
2% strictly over the original capital is probably not very difficult, namely for a $5000 account to get $100 daily average, and when the account increases to $10000, $20000, you still aim to get $100 on average daily, then you got a much larger leeway and buffer to sustain the DD. For $5000 account you can trade 1 NQ (or ES), and you need to get 5 point for $100, and there are always 5 points move and mostly multiple times during every single day (or most days), and someday if you catch 1 or 2 trades that spanned 10 or 20 points, you got the whole week profit covered, and again there are always at least 1-3 days during a week that it would produce 10 - 20 point movement.
However, to get a compound 2% is probably not very easy, as you have to constantly be in a good condition to compete every day, and when the account grows to much higher capital, every DD of 5% or so hit a bigger hole and takes longer to recover. When the account gets bigger, say to 1 million, then you would have to trade 200 lots (based on the ratio of $5000 on 1 lot), and that put a lot of pressure on the trader, say a 2 point fluctuation (that happened almost within every 1 to 5 minute during the active trading hours) in the opposite direction would put a hole of $8000 on the account, you need to have a strong mental to follow your plan if you have confidence in its outcome. However, one can always reduce the lots, or say, when you get to one million, put half million away in a saving account, and just play with the other half mil with 100 lots, that give you some peace of mind that if you lose all in that trading account, you still have the half, and then you can configure a safer strategy to re-start again, as trading is a constant learning and evolving endeavor. Better yet, if you want really risk under control, use future option strategy, each time you play $10K (10 to 20 lots option on ES or other Emini) and when you lose 50%, you exit, then you have 100 chances (50X2), you blow your account only when you lose all 100 trades consecutively , and that is probably not going to happen to experienced trader like you.
But all in all, compounding is the dream of all traders and even investors (or most of them), isn't it? I believe most people heard about Einstein's (or may not him) comment on the 8th wonder about compound interest.
However, to get a compound 2% is probably not very easy, as you have to constantly be in a good condition to compete every day, and when the account grows to much higher capital, every DD of 5% or so hit a bigger hole and takes longer to recover. When the account gets bigger, say to 1 million, then you would have to trade 200 lots (based on the ratio of $5000 on 1 lot), and that put a lot of pressure on the trader, say a 2 point fluctuation (that happened almost within every 1 to 5 minute during the active trading hours) in the opposite direction would put a hole of $8000 on the account, you need to have a strong mental to follow your plan if you have confidence in its outcome. However, one can always reduce the lots, or say, when you get to one million, put half million away in a saving account, and just play with the other half mil with 100 lots, that give you some peace of mind that if you lose all in that trading account, you still have the half, and then you can configure a safer strategy to re-start again, as trading is a constant learning and evolving endeavor. Better yet, if you want really risk under control, use future option strategy, each time you play $10K (10 to 20 lots option on ES or other Emini) and when you lose 50%, you exit, then you have 100 chances (50X2), you blow your account only when you lose all 100 trades consecutively , and that is probably not going to happen to experienced trader like you.
But all in all, compounding is the dream of all traders and even investors (or most of them), isn't it? I believe most people heard about Einstein's (or may not him) comment on the 8th wonder about compound interest.
Last edited:
sstheo,
What is your avg winning pct, your avg gain and your avg loss?
What you'll find in winning systems is this:
At 70% winners, your avg win and loss will be about the same.
At 80% winners, your avg loss will be about 2x your avg gain.
Easier to trade with avg 40-60% winners in trend trading because they you'll get a far better avg gain vs your avg loss. You have a bigger success area window, so to speak.
What is your avg winning pct, your avg gain and your avg loss?
What you'll find in winning systems is this:
At 70% winners, your avg win and loss will be about the same.
At 80% winners, your avg loss will be about 2x your avg gain.
Easier to trade with avg 40-60% winners in trend trading because they you'll get a far better avg gain vs your avg loss. You have a bigger success area window, so to speak.
I am not giving up on the other account. In fact, I should be funded this week or next with Leeloo, and then I will be trading the E-mini's right away on that funded account - which allows up to 15 contracts at a time. But don't be alarmed; I will be using the success of my live AMP account to help me successfully, and prudently, grow the Leeloo account. I will be starting with just 1 or 2 contracts at a time, and adding 1 contract for each $5000 gained. (Sound familiar?)
Instead of closing down this live AMP account after all, as I got closer to finishing the LeeLoo account, I chose to continue to trade it-- there was no reason not to, since the trades are almost identical.
Yes, there is pressure from my wife, but I will manage.
Since I am attracting so much attention on my 2% goal, and my trades are (appropriately) being scrutinized, I will step up the transparency. Doubly so, because I appear to be the catalyst for arguments in my very own journal, which was far from my intent here.