Micro E-mini Madness (2% per day)

[sstheo]

holding for hours to get a scalp in the ym..that takes the cake..is there a best of on elite turder

This is the beauty of the micros. They have just become a real life testing ground with just enough firepower to keep you emotionally connected to the market, but not so much that you lose any sleep if you decide to hold overnight. So the benefits I have found so far are now lumped into "The Five S's."

1) Scaling abilities for small accounts. This is impossible to safely do with the E-mini's with less than $10k in the account.
2) Swing trading small positions (if you want)
3) Safer in volatile markets like the last 2 weeks
4) Sim trading on steroids. Live trading with micros is even better that sim trading because it is real.
5) Stops that elicit "I don't care!" One of my biggest challenges has been consistently honoring my stop. With the micros, I can say "no problem" when my stop is hit. With the regular E-minis, it is often hard to take the losses when you "just know" the market is about to have the biggest reversal of the decade. Of course you then get a margin call because you were flat out WRONG and were a freaking stupid deer in the headlights and the Mac truck splatters you all over the highway.

 

[Overnight]

This is the beauty of the micros. They have just become a real life testing ground with just enough firepower to keep you emotionally connected to the market, but not so much that you lose any sleep if you decide to hold overnight...

I think this is a wrong way of thinking. You HAVE to appreciate the power of the volatility of the markets we are in. I was long in May in a mini. Lost a chunk when I closed it. When it seemed to calm down, I went long a single NQ micro contract. THE THING THEN SANK 600 POINTS after that entry in like 12 trading days.

I'm sorry sir, but if you can handle a $1200 dollar drop on a single micro contract, then more power to you. But you would not be able to if you had only $1000 in your trading account. Be hopeful that does not happen to you if you scale in on a few more contracts trying to average the trade.

 

[sstheo]

I think this is a wrong way of thinking. You HAVE to appreciate the power of the volatility of the markets we are in. I was long in May in a mini. Lost a chunk when I closed it. When it seemed to calm down, I went long a single NQ micro contract. THE THING THEN SANK 600 POINTS after that entry in like 12 trading days.

I'm sorry sir, but if you can handle a $1200 dollar drop on a single micro contract, then more power to you. But you would not be able to if you had only $1000 in your trading account. Be hopeful that does not happen to you if you scale in on a few more contracts trying to average the trade.

After extensive cognitive engagement, I have decided to agree with your rationale. The micros are not to be treated new kinds of contracts with unlimited superpowers, but smaller version of the all-powerful ES, NQ, YM, and RTY which, in the hands of the inexperienced or foolish, can obliterate an otherwise healthy account in mere minutes, especially on days like tomorrow with an FOMC report.

And don't call me sir. We are all brothers and sisters here fighting for some scraps tossed out by the Big Boys.

 

[sillyw10]

If I hadn't gone through extensive naked chart training and trading previously I would have thought you completely nuts. But your setup is simple and elegant. The multiple time frames and the color of the bars are certainly helpful. Have you tried just trading off of the LOC chart on the left? I bet you would do at least 95% as well, now that you have typical price moments cemented in your head.

the setup I have is what I require..there are reasons why the LOC chart alone is not sufficient..if I explain why it would take a good while for someone to understand..as it has taken me years of trading and learning a few things from other traders with more experience than me..also..some people charge a lot of money for showing people things that do not really matter..it works as they are showing people what they want to see..not what they need to see

keep in mind the whole purpose of the game is to get the plebs to part with their hard earned money..hell..even the Chinese have copped on to it now

 

[sillyw10]

If I understand your question, you must be referring to the hard spike up on the 12th or 13th. the price had just retraced after a hard move down and was starting down again. But all the shorts got thumped.

not exactly..he said that they draw support and resistance lines not using the wicks..which is similar to using the LOC chart for S&R lines..this..like everything with trading works some of the time..but not all of the time

the main thing is that there is a big difference putting on a trade in the middle of a range..compared to the extremes of the range..I came across an interesting read some time ago..where the author showed that the mean is not actually the mathematical mean..but is in fact the outlier..so what this implies..is that you do not buy or sell when price reverts to the mean..or average..but when it is at the extremes..as that is when it is either going to keep on going..or start moving in the other direction

he tried to say he had it mapped out with the use of Bollinger bands..but after some looking at actual live charts I could see no real advantage in what he was trying to do..just another "seller" of what people wanted to hear

we all have one goal..make some money and not lose it back..as for the know alls..as far as I am concerned they can go "piss up a rope"..as one good trader here used to say

there is no easy way to make money.. anything worthwhile requires effort and dedication..those who seek out easy money would be better off looking at opening an escort service..or better still..trade bitcoin

 

[steve2222]

I'm implementing a new "averaging idea" as we speak. I made a long entry in MNQ this morning, with a 20 point target. It dropped, came back to within 10 points of target, then dropped away bigly. So now I "averaged" with a MYM at the 70 point drop of the MNQ. My initial plan was to do a double average, similar to something I used to try with CL.

Long front month, short next month. When one month goes into profit, re-enter that month same direction, but oppose with third month. This idea is similar, but with a unidirectional bias. We'll see how it goes. Because now instead of trying to spread across multiple months of same instrument (CL), I have 3 (really 4 but I don't do RTY), since 97% of the time, the 3 main equity indices track each other, just as the monthly energy contracts all track themselves.

Hi Overnight,
I don't want to derail the thread off topic, but I too have played around with various averaging ideas coupled with hedging so your post grabbed my attention.

I have to confess though I am struggling to understand what you were doing with CL. Are you able to elaborate perhaps with an example? What does 'double average' mean?

So with CL you were going long the front month and short the next month at exactly the same time? If so clearly one leg would move into profit and the other leg a loss of exactly the same amount. But you then say when one leg moves into profit your 're-enter' that month - what do you mean by this? Is it that you put another contract on, so if for instance the long leg went into profit (short leg now in a loss of the same amount) you would put on another long contract (which would be a naked exposure ie unhedged)? But what do you mean then when you say' but oppose with third month'?

Cheers

 

[sstheo]

Because of the restlessness of the natives, I decided I better start posting the good stuff.

This chart shows 3 sim scalp trades I took this morning on the YM E-mini. (I will start with the Micros soon.)

This is my fastest chart, an Heikin-Ashi 3 point chart. While I really like the line-on-close (LOC) charts, there is good info in the HA candle that helps me not be stupid: if it is red, I don't go long, and if it is white, I don't go short! The HA candle formation involves values from the previous candle and I will discuss it more in a future post.

The background line is Cumulative Delta which shows internal aggression on each bar in terms of who is placing market orders vs just letting their limit orders get hit. For example, if the buyers are "hitting the ask" more than the sellers are "hitting the bid" then the CDelta tends to rise. If the CDelta is above the price then I will avoid shorts and vice versa.

On the YM, the value of these trades was $40, $25, and $50. After $4 commissions per trade I am at an average of $34 net per trade. 10 trades a day like that gives $300 per contract per day. And that is how I have done most of my trading. And I am very successful. Until I am not. And that is why I am even dabbling in the Micros.

The problems come with (1) tweets and economic releases and other market-moving events or just massive unidirectional moves where I try to fade the moves and (2) where I don't honor the stops because of my "certainty" of a reversal.

I will deal with all of my demons here in my journal over time, but the issue at hand is "How to trade the Micros profitably?" Because of the larger fees, I feel that the trades I have presented here are NOT acceptable if they become the norm. So I need bigger trades. I need to hold longer.

But as you can see, I got out at the bottom of the range in each case. There was no more room to hold for a bigger move. That was the max! So I have to look for bigger setups.

But I can do it.

 

[sillyw10]

so far so good..but I am more interested to see your losing trades to be honest!

I tried all the different variations of volume delta with Sierra.. Multicharts and Qtrader..with Qtrader I was even monitoring daily CD as well as their proprietary AlgoTrades monitor..in the end I just scrapped it all as I found no real value

as example..if you set up a 5 min bar or candle to show the bid/ ask delta at each trade level..at the extremes you will see that a lot of the time there will be zero volume on the ask at the high..and zero volume on the bid at the low

great..now I have identified a reversal point..I am going to clean up!!!

wait a minute..that is historical data..look at it live and you will see how quickly those values change..to me..it was a total waste of time and effort..as someone posted in another thread..where he said "nice to have"..he was dead right..all this stuff looks great and makes us feel we are a part of what the big players do.. forget it I say..go back to the good old basic bar chart..

" there is more value in the blink of an eye, than in months of rational analysis"

Malcom someone if my memory serves me correct

anyway..as you rightly say.. let's see how it goes..busy time for me ahead with other more important stuff to sort out..but will be doing some bit of trading as time permits

 

[sillyw10]

lets see what happens at the open?

 

[sillyw10]

this time it worked out!