Michael Saylor speaks...

savoir said:
Is a Lotto ticket an asymmetric bet (investment)? Many people who’ve won can also say their lives have been changed.

Regarding real estate, you have a very superficial understanding of it.

Here is my take.

First, I don’t consider a personal residence an investment. I know that’s not the prevailing view. To me it’s a personal expenditure on the utility and enjoyment of a property. It’s also a life-cycle decision, especially if you have children, not a market-timing one. Making or losing money on a later sale is incidental to ownership.

Second, owning additional residential property is not always about rental income. There is utility and enjoyment as well as possible appreciation in value.

I own a vacation home on the Big Island and a house from inheritance. Neither generates rental income, so fortunately I was unaffected by the pandemic shenanigans that you describe.

The properties have appreciated in value quite a lot and ridiculously the last 2-3 years. As a bonus, the inherited property was bought in the mid-1980s and has the tax base carryover per Prop 13.

Third, there is a world of real estate beyond residential. Commercial properties I count as investments are an industrial warehouse for distribution of fermented food products, a certified kitchen, and an adjacent lot used by food trucks and pop-up food vendors.

I am the silent partner of the businesses that operate out of there and get 10% of gross monthly sitting on my ass. It’s not just about the income. From my trading profits I enabled another person to realize a dream.
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On the real-estate, not my area of expertise. I only looked at it from my own personal situation and what it would have taken for me to purchase one, what are the risks and what are the costs

I understand everything you said and don't disagree with you but I'm out of my element, I always look at liquidity and risks. Let's say I invest $100K in a property and bank provides $200K, the bank really owns most of it

Let's say some emergency happens and need to get out in a hurry, do I take a loss? Real estate is a very hot market so there is a good argument that there will be profits but that's the problem with non-liquid assets, I don't know m2m the value of my investment

Bitcoin trades 24/7 but real estate has to be listed for sale, then, there's escrow, and all kinds of processes, maybe in 30-60 days get my money net of agent fees and other fees related to the sale processes

Let's say someone harmed my child and I decide to grab my passport, put as many lead projectiles where they belong, go to the airport and take off, but a big portion of my wealth is stuck in RE, with BTC's and crypto assets there's no problems because they're on the blockchain

I cannot see clear risk exposure with real estate. When Hitler was rising into power, many Jews were stuck because their wealth was in physical properties, I feel real-estate has that kind of chain-lock

I'm not trying to change your mind on RE, sounds like you're a very successful real estate investor, but I'm not and will never be one

I do want to buy a house if BTC goes to $500K but as I said all-cash or 95% and only 5% mortgage

---------------

lotto and long shot bets like horse bets and roulette single numbers are asymmetric, but they are single event

Think of someone putting $100K downpayment in a $300K house, sells the house for $600K, but the roi is 400% because of leverage using the bank's money as leverage. Asymmetric returns

If I buy 1 Bitcoin today at $28K and hold for 5 years, the most I can lose is $28K if BTC goes to $0 but I can make 2000% within 5 years, or maybe make 100% or maybe make 10% or lost 10% or lose 50%

It's not an all or nothing bet like Lotto or roulette bet single event decision
 
johnarb said:
On the real-estate, not my area of expertise. I only looked at it from my own personal situation and what it would have taken for me to purchase one, what are the risks and what are the costs

I understand everything you said and don't disagree with you but I'm out of my element, I always look at liquidity and risks. Let's say I invest $100K in a property and bank provides $200K, the bank really owns most of it

Let's say some emergency happens and need to get out in a hurry, do I take a loss? Real estate is a very hot market so there is a good argument that there will be profits but that's the problem with non-liquid assets, I don't know m2m the value of my investment

Bitcoin trades 24/7 but real estate has to be listed for sale, then, there's escrow, and all kinds of processes, maybe in 30-60 days get my money net of agent fees and other fees related to the sale processes

Let's say someone harmed my child and I decide to grab my passport, put as many lead projectiles where they belong, go to the airport and take off, but a big portion of my wealth is stuck in RE, with BTC's and crypto assets there's no problems because they're on the blockchain

I cannot see clear risk exposure with real estate. When Hitler was rising into power, many Jews were stuck because their wealth was in physical properties, I feel real-estate has that kind of chain-lock

I'm not trying to change your mind on RE, sounds like you're a very successful real estate investor, but I'm not and will never be one

I do want to buy a house if BTC goes to $500K but as I said all-cash or 95% and only 5% mortgage

---------------

lotto and long shot bets like horse bets and roulette single numbers are asymmetric, but they are single event

Think of someone putting $100K downpayment in a $300K house, sells the house for $600K, but the roi is 400% because of leverage using the bank's money as leverage. Asymmetric returns

If I buy 1 Bitcoin today at $28K and hold for 5 years, the most I can lose is $28K if BTC goes to $0 but I can make 2000% within 5 years, or maybe make 100% or maybe make 10% or lost 10% or lose 50%

It's not an all or nothing bet like Lotto or roulette bet single event decision
More...
What’s up with these doom and gloom scenarios? They are not indicative of an optimist.

How is Bitcoin going to help you if you kill someone and flee the country? In this surveillance-state world, you will not evade capture for very long. You are better off hiring the best criminal defense firm you can afford and taking your chances in the court system.

As an investment or trading vehicle, real estate is not as good as something that is traded on an exchange. But leverage is different for real estate. There is no margin call. You still get to live in the house even when your equity gets wiped out. Ya gotta live somewhere.
 
savoir said:
What’s up with these doom and gloom scenarios? They are not indicative of an optimist.

How is Bitcoin going to help you if you kill someone and flee the country? In this surveillance-state world, you will not evade capture for very long. You are better off hiring the best criminal defense firm you can afford and taking your chances in the court system.

As an investment or trading vehicle, real estate is not as good as something that is traded on an exchange. But leverage is different for real estate. There is no margin call. You still get to live in the house even when your equity gets wiped out. Ya gotta live somewhere.
More...

Bad scenario example, lol. Anyway, the message is optionality

Investing in Bitcoin that started literally as an experiment to create a monetary network that had no value when it started and expecting it to continue to survive for years and even thrive means being an optimist

But Bitcoin as money or asset that is outside of the system can also be used in a doom and gloom scenario

Literally, anyone in Turkey or Lebanon or Peru or Argentina or Sri Lanka who converted as much of their assets to Bitcoin 5-10 years ago would be in very good shape now financially regardless of what happened to the rest of the country

Was that doom and gloom scenario for the citizens of those countries above or merely survival?
 
What would we do without a cheerleader like johnarb , flailing his arms as the ship sinks into the abyss. ?

Love it

drowning.jpg
 
I was on the Big Island in April. If I lived on the west coast I would definitely have a summer home there.

savoir said:
Is a Lotto ticket an asymmetric bet (investment)? Many people who’ve won can also say their lives have been changed.

Regarding real estate, you have a very superficial understanding of it.

Here is my take.

First, I don’t consider a personal residence an investment. I know that’s not the prevailing view. To me it’s a personal expenditure on the utility and enjoyment of a property. It’s also a life-cycle decision, especially if you have children, not a market-timing one. Making or losing money on a later sale is incidental to ownership.

Second, owning additional residential property is not always about rental income. There is utility and enjoyment as well as possible appreciation in value.

I own a vacation home on the Big Island and a house from inheritance. Neither generates rental income, so fortunately I was unaffected by the pandemic shenanigans that you describe.

The properties have appreciated in value quite a lot and ridiculously the last 2-3 years. As a bonus, the inherited property was bought in the mid-1980s and has the tax base carryover per Prop 13.

Third, there is a world of real estate beyond residential. Commercial properties I count as investments are an industrial warehouse for distribution of fermented food products, a certified kitchen, and an adjacent lot used by food trucks and pop-up food vendors.

I am the silent partner of the businesses that operate out of there and get 10% of gross monthly sitting on my ass. It’s not just about the income. From my trading profits I enabled another person to realize a dream.
More...
 
How do we know that the CEO of MSTR did not use options/leaps to protect his massive profits when his stock went >$1,000? Or maybe they don't teach that at MIT. :banghead:
 
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comagnum said:
How do we know that the CEO of MSTR did not use options/leaps to protect his massive profits when his stock went >$1,000? Or maybe they don't teach that at MIT. :banghead:
More...

there is no real counter party like CME where you know you will collect. Binance, Kucoin all can close shop if they have to pay up 10s of billions.
 
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