Corzine fancied himself a trader and placed a huge bet just months into his tenure. Bypassed all of the risk controls and fiduciary procedures - and proceeded to time a market that was severely and dramatically trending against him. Corzine chose sovereign debt as the instrument of destruction because, of course, in an unleveraged and natural state it is an accepted vehicle for the conservative investment of client funds like insurance premiums and margin accounts.
For that matter, alot of the LTCM's portfolio was flavored with sovereign debt. The angle, of course, is the exotic derivation of leveraged instruments from those seemingly benign government 'bonds' and 'notes'.
Standing in front of a speeding train, raising your arms, and proclaiming to the train that it has gone far enough and must turn around immediately apparently is shit risk/reward.
Another market timer. Will that debt turn around ? Of course. Just a matter of timing.
The problem with market timing as a contrarian is the pain, and of course one's ability to finance and endure that pain. Market timers using OPM always blow up - because the the entities providing the capital do not have the staying power and they always take the trader out of the trade unilaterally and in a dramatic fashion. End of discussion. Security escorts him out of the building. OPM means that you have a stop loss level whether you care to admit the fact or not.
If you are market timing and picking tops and bottoms contrary to trending markets and using your own personal funds, however - enjoy. Some traders make money doing it, and I certainly wouldn't dispute that notion. It is all a matter of pain tolerance. And intact stomach lining, cardiovascular system,nerves, and intimate relationships.