Mexican Tariffs

[Tsing Tao]

I should also add to my commentary the one scenario in which these tariffs would work to bring jobs back to the US:

Imagine a political class that was united completely, from President to Congress with the added benefit of popular support. Then, if you are a CEO that knows this is a shift in the wind, so to speak, you have to start making plans for permanent change. But that isn't the case here, and that is why it won't work. It is also why China will probably not cave if they feel they can outlast Trump.

 

[Tsing Tao]

I can assure you no one crossing that border is doing so for a pipe dream of a handout

They are absolutely crossing for the welfare. This is part of the better life. Medical, food stamps, housing, etc. It is not the only reason all of them are crossing, but it is most definitely a large reason a large amount of them are crossing.

 

[smallfil]

I am sure most GIs who were drafted to fight in our wars didn't want to sacrifice either, but they did so for what they were told was the good of the country.

We have the spectacle of mexico brazenly engaging in hostile acts toward our country. Imposing a few tariffs seems like a small price to pay to force them to stop.

Imposing tariffs is a threat, a cudgel for Mexico to move its ass and do something about the problem. There are multiple reports that they are heading off the migrants at the pass and detaining them! So, they can really do something as opposed to liberal media narrative BS that Mexico is doing all it can already! Mexico has done squat until now, because they did not have to! What I want to see them do is actually, shutdown their borders. Maybe, imposing that 10% tax on remittances to Mexico might be a better alternative to the tariffs. The only negative is liberal judges in the lower courts who are biased against President Donald Trump could put a halt to that 10% tax. That is why we need more conservative judges in the lower and appellate courts. Too many liberal judges going out of their way to subvert, the US! In other countries, they would have been arrested for the traitors that they are to their country!

 

[AAAintheBeltway]

To move a large manufacturing facility back from Mexico into the United States is not a simple switch on the wall, as you well know. Forget about the pricing of products, the margin compression and other competitive landscape that we would have to bring into the equation. Let's pretend we have the monopoly on manufacturing a product that everyone wants, and will buy at any price (so we remove the pricing discussion).

I agree that changing a supply chain is not a simple proposition, but neither is it impossible. Most of the smaller manufacturers that opened facilities in mexico did so to service big customers like the auto manufacturers. I have been told that it is either official or unofficial Mexican policy that those suppliers have to produce in mexico. Virtually all of them, not to mention the auto companies, already have facilities in the US that are typically not running at peak production. They can shift production to the US without having to invest in the whole greenfield plant construction process.

 

[wjk]

Even if manufacturing returns to the US, what's to keep those entities from hiring illegals. I wonder how much the Chamber of Commerce plays a role in the inability of anyone in congress really wanting or being able to solve the problem. Big money keeps the problem alive. Tariffs won't really change that, IMO. Trump's not looking in the right places if he wants to stop illegals.

On the lighter side, I recently took a trip to the south central US. At my hotel, my wife asked a question of one of the many Mexican staff (almost all of them). In quite possibly the best English I've ever heard, the man stated: "I don't speak English, ma'am."

 

[Tsing Tao]

I agree that changing a supply chain is not a simple proposition, but neither is it impossible. Most of the smaller manufacturers that opened facilities in mexico did so to service big customers like the auto manufacturers. I have been told that it is either official or unofficial Mexican policy that those suppliers have to produce in mexico. Virtually all of them, not to mention the auto companies, already have facilities in the US that are typically not running at peak production. They can shift production to the US without having to invest in the whole greenfield plant construction process.

I never said it was impossible. All I said was that it won't happen if the decision makers in these companies believe that tariffs will not outlast the life cycle of relocating these facilities.

 

[UsualName]

You guys are gaming this shit policy out as if it was anything more than a knee jerk reaction to a completely failed border policy and disastrous management of DHS.

Nothing, I mean nothing, good will come from imposing tariffs on Mexican goods because the problem is Trump has run border management into the ground.

Trump is not working with congress and has wiped out DHS leadership, and he has overburdened the courts with illegals in good standing cases.

The border is being overwhelmed because people know the system is so broken now and they have to be let in.

These tariffs, which will amount to about $500 to $800 per household are a tax for having a shitty president.

Not only are they a tax on us for trump being a total disaster, they will increase illegal immigration because they will hurt the Mexican economy.

 

[LS1Z28]

It looks like they're making progress towards a deal. It sounds like it would go a long way towards shutting down the caravans of asylum seekers we've seen over the past several months from Central America.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...945ae5db8fb_story.html?utm_term=.54c9318f0b22
The Mexican official and the U.S. official said the countries are negotiating a sweeping plan to overhaul asylum rules across the region, a move that would require Central Americans to seek refuge in the first foreign country they set foot upon after fleeing their homeland.

Under such a plan, the United States would swiftly deport Guatemalan asylum seekers who set foot on U.S. soil to Mexico. And the United States would send Honduran and Salvadoran asylum applicants to Guatemala, whose government held talks with acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan last week.

 

[El OchoCinco]

Just means Hondurans and Guatemalans will then claim asylum from Mexico and its gang violence to get to U.S. haha

 

[Cuddles]

I don't like Ted Cruz but he has a point. The Tariffs are Trump's way of saying I could not get the Wall funding from my GOP when I had full control of the Congress and now with Dem control I definitely will not get it so I will try and go after Mexico.

But what most Presidents never learn (both sides) is tariffs don't stop the imports totally, they just make them more expensive and the U.S. consumer is the one who pays.

Assume I am a U.S. importer avocadoes from Mexico at $1,00 a pound (simple for math purposes). Now there is a 25% import duty. I pay $1.00 to import the avocadoes and pay a $0.25/lb. tax on them. So first things first, the American importer pays the tax. Second as I market them to the distributer I add the $0.25/lb. cost to my resell price to cover the cost and that eventually gets passed on to the consumer. So all Americans are paying the tariffs and while imports of avocadoes might drop a bit from those not able to pay the highier cost down the line, most still do because there is a market for this product.

Bush and Clinton learned this lesson putting import tariffs on Japanese cars. U.S. owned Honda and Toyota dealers were losing sales because the prices jumped dramatically so they lobbied hard to get rid of the tariffs.

Trump plans to declare new national emergency to impose tariffs
https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...lare-new-national-emergency-to-impose-tariffs
According to the document, the new emergency is necessary due to “the failure of the Government of Mexico to take effective action to reduce the mass migration of aliens illegally crossing into the United States through Mexico.”

The new emergency declaration would follow a February emergency declaration, which Trump used to justify sending National Guard troops to support Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officials at the southern border.

The draft document signals that the White House believes that imposing the tariffs under the February emergency declaration might not pass legal muster. But it remains unclear if a final decision has been made to invoke another emergency. The White House did not answer questions about the document.