It's not that I don't like options - they are kind of a fascinating mathematical construct - it's just that there can be, IMHO, a "seductive" allure to using them and working these spread strategies, when a much simpler method would be more efficient.Quote from yucca_mtn:
Wayne, I really appreciate your input.
In your post earlier, I got the idea that you considered a long position safer than the DITM spread because of the ability to trade it. Well from MY previous experience I know I can't trade stocks worth a damn. I still prove it to myself on long positions I manage today. I set a stop loss, the stock hits it and immediately runs up. My timing is almost always off in the short run. I have to use covered calls on those positions as a hedge to survive.
You also indicated that even with a lot of experience you don't like options. I might have misread some of what you said.
Anyway now you post you like a better way of handling the hypothetical ABC stock using spreads. Can you share that? I did not understand what you meant.
PS - did your risk calculator really say you could by a 37.5/42.5 spread on a $45 stock 5 months out for $2.5? That sounds cheap to me.
For the spread pricing one month out with a stock drop, I just kept IV the same, at about 38, and dropped the price of the stock to $45. Then, on Mar 5, the same 3 July spreads would cost a little more than approx $1000. So the original spread dropped ~$200 - $150.
For a "better" way, well that's very subjective. But something to look at is, say you were expecting the stock to move up 5% in the next 2 weeks (based on whatever T/A or fundies). Just buy the next strike, next month, ITM call. You must try like hell to get that call at at least a little discount, tho (limit order a bit under the market). Simple shorter term ITM calls are a decent (and under appreciated IMHO) high leverage stock substitute.
If you don't get the move you expected, sell it back. And if the stock moves up only 2 - 4%, for example, that ITM call is going jump 10-20% (approx) in value (yeah you could lose too, but gamma/delta, at least, is on your side). And you don't have the hassle of dumping or waiting for theta to catch up on the short leg. Of course you MUST have a positive expectation system/method for determining the probability of the stock move. But that goes for any initial spread, or adjustment, or whatever. How do you get that edge? Good question!

The big overriding factor, is if you make money and are comfortable with whatever strategy you are using, then just keep doing it. No matter what, keep the total account leverage low.
But do keep your mind open to newer methods and ideas. Build an Excel spread sheet and log the details of every single trade. Try out new ideas, in a very small size, and see how you do.
Good luck all!
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