META report

this time they are remembering last qtr after report move...

Great IV action from 8.4% yesterday to 8.9%. Also- great up and down price action for active scalps!

I am out but maybe leaving some extra $ on the table. Will check back before 4:00
 
tooriginal said:
ambient vol of about 50% and implied move of about 9.5% look very low for ARM right now.
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I am also watching it but probably going to pass.

1. I don't trade stocks that don't have at least 4 qtr history
2. IV is extremely cheap considering last qtr move of 48%

and it's become "cheaper" day by day...something is just not right but not sure what.

IV in last week, day by day:

16.2, 14, 14, 12.8, 11.6, 11.1

HMMM
 
IV_Trader said:
I am also watching it but probably going to pass.

1. I don't trade stocks that don't have at least 4 qtr history
2. IV is extremely cheap considering last qtr move of 48%

and it's become "cheaper" day by day...something is just not right but not sure what.

IV in last week, day by day:

16.2, 14, 14, 12.8, 11.6, 11.1

HMMM
More...
the iv declined post amd earnings but the earnings implied move was fixed at 12% for around the 8 prior trading days. it looks to have bottomed today and has since risen to >10% since my first post. im betting we see 12% implied move before earnings. the realized vol has been comfortably above the ambient 50% on multiple time scales which helps as well. but there are tons of other picks right now. regarding fewer cycles, very good point -- a good study to do would be implied move behavior for high volume stocks with limited earnings history.
 
tooriginal said:
the iv declined post amd earnings but the earnings implied move was fixed at 12% for around the 8 prior trading days. it looks to have bottomed today and has since risen to >10% since my first post. im betting we see 12% implied move before earnings. the realized vol has been comfortably above the ambient 50% on multiple time scales which helps as well. but there are tons of other picks right now. regarding fewer cycles, very good point -- a good study to do would be implied move behavior for high volume stocks with limited earnings history.[/QUOT


I track implied, and yes, the lowest point was earlier today at 11.1% ( 11.30$ for 102 strike)

Currently in DIS, LYFT, PDD for next week and planning to enter few others on Monday.

So far not the easier qtr... mostly due to vols crash on the last day before report, very unusual.
Had 2 home runs on GOOG (sympathy with META move) and SQ 10% downgrade.
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