Meredith Whitney: "Unemployment is headed to 13%"

[CET]

Quote from IanMacQuaide:

Not to argue, but to illuminate a point, albeit anecdotally.
Banks won't refi houses cuz appraisals come in too low, due to the precipitious drop in house values.
So there goes that idea.

I believe her point was that there was a lot of refinancing when mortgage rates were in the 4s and that would help 2nd quarter earnings. It was fairly clear to me she was just saying the banks stocks were a trade into earnings and then it gets ugly again.

 

[MandelbrotSet]

Quote from fkbsuhites:

Mafia style

Box full of money or the bullet.

Your pick

Certainly to her career, if nothing else.

There's no doubt about it.

 

[Landis82]

Quote from monty21:

Watch those earnings. CSX already good.

But volumes are way off.
Coal traffic -21%

 

[Landis82]

Quote from maxitronixy:

i think it was said the trading that accounts for the supposed "1.4 billion profits" for Gs recall the rally in march that lifted the market and the sudden rally in commodities. "concidental"?

So many "conspiracy" theories here on ET, it's a wonder that anyone can actually wake up in the morning, get out of bed, and pull the "trigger and trade.

I guess if you believe GS "engineered" the rally in March in stocks and commodities, you also believe that they were able to send the dollar off a cliff, too, which was the catalyst for the commodity rally. I guess they even had the Chinese replenish their inventories too . . .

LOL!

 

[gigsup]

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

Way above 13%.

She's being diplomatic (as in not wanting to be blamed for panicking people).

We'll see reported unemployment of at least 15% if not more.

Monthly NFP- Almost 5 Million lost in 10 months. Neglible job growth
outside of gov. stimulus. You can see where this headed if the
monthly numbers do not reverse and slow down soon.

 

[makloda]

Don't forget the Bay of Pigs invasion, JFK's assassination and Pearl Harbor. All engineered by Goldman Sachs. On top of that, rumor has it that Jack the Ripper was a partner at Goldman's London office

 

[Daal]

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

Way above 13%.

She's being diplomatic (as in not wanting to be blamed for panicking people).

We'll see reported unemployment of at least 15% if not more.

Do you have any idea what kind of NFP number needs to print every month for how long to get to 15%?The way we are going with 400k-300k(and declining) there is no way it will remotely get this high. There needs to be another lehman shock and the government has already said they will bail lemonade stands out if necessary to prevent another shock, just look at CIT. If NFP keeps printing bad there will be more stimulus and people will work for the government

To bet on 13%+ unemployment you are betting against the administration/congress ability to spend/bailout and the fed to finance with new money, not a good bet

 

[Dr. Zhivodka]

I see a War Veteran Bivouac on the White House Lawn.... much like the WW1 rebelion.

 

[IanMacQuaide]

Quote from Dr. Zhivodka:

I see a War Veteran Bivouac on the White House Lawn.... much like the WW1 rebelion.

That would be interesting!