Mental Ceilings and self fulfilling prophesies
- Thread starter Girlpower
- Start date
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Quote from Tonkadad:
I am really interested about the grid thing, but to be honest I just don't quite understand it. I think I am a more picture oriented person and words sometimes get in the way.
See the attached enlargement. Print it somehow first.
1. Fill in bars as day goes on. Use 15 min chart and plot 30 min bars in yellow.* Only shade half the width on the grid. Look and see that the yellow appears to be the left half of the width of 30 minutes. This takes a moment. See that the next coloring space is ½ width of 30 minutes also. I use orange there. To get the orange I use two 15 minute bars starting at :45 of the hour. (anyone googling before minis when I did this, you see :20 and :50 because of the 8:20 start of DJXX). You see the 30 minute data is interleaved or overlapped. Each 30 minute data segment is 30 minutes and overlapped 15 minutes. We show the H/L of the 30 min with our coloring but we do not overlap the coloring. We leave the right portion of each bar out of the picture so the colors do not overlap.
2. We project the bar trend ahead (A and B) to time E (E is the right side of the 30 min bar; the right side is not colored though). And we then project back horizontally to get the top and bottom of the anticipated 30 min bar (C and D) (The projection is necessary to just show the 30 minutes as narrower bar whose left side only appears and is lined out in green So later the real shading in yellow goes over it when it happens.). You go all the way to E so you keep all distortions out. The bars are 30 min wide and only show as thinner to keep colors separate even though they overlap. 120% of those I mentor screw up their first charts several times inj the first 2 hours. They are frustrated and think I am bugging them to be too accurate. In two weeks their drawings are worth hundreds of dollars each and they are precise, no mistakes and they do not need them anymore to anticipate.
3. Alternate with the yellow and orange bars.
4. Do this along with your stop log on the 5 min fractal.
5. Repeat for 2 weeks straight all day long. so you can do it mentally the rest of your life. Annotate each time that you see the coming turn with the time you see it. At first jamb stops tight into the turns. After 5 successes with stops, then put your orders in to pick off the extremes (opposite the side the stops are on.) with reversals (doubling down). This change alone is equal to more than the long term average take of "edgers". By picking off the volatility width of the market twice every reversal you begin to understand slaloming in chop ahead of the scalpers
since this is 15 min bars, always just exit instead of reverse when you are hitting S or R. Otherwise reverse on all transverses that do not make the S/R limits. This is just beginner warm up stuff.
* look at the 15 min chart and pair tow bars to get the H/L for 30 minutes. you could go to the 30 minute chart and copy. But because you are doing 30 min bars that start at :15 and :45 you can best do it all by pairing all day long.
Here are some examples of precision missed:
Leaving out volume.
Thinking any thing works on any fractal
getting the middle of the first bar by taking the O and C of the bar instead of the H and L
writing a pseudo code for a long trade when the method is a bracket entry that eliminates prediction. The jerk predicts a long instead of anticipating.
writing YM points won in profits as a % to disguise the point on points I was making. Apples and oranges.
not printing list of trades that were entered and where exits were not posted.
Living in the "this VS that" world when it is a world of cooperation and melding.
etc.
Quote from Tonkadad:
I am really interested about the grid thing, but to be honest I just don't quite understand it. I think I am a more picture oriented person and words sometimes get in the way.
See the attached enlargement. Print it somehow first.
1. Fill in bars as day goes on. Use 15 min chart and plot 30 min bars in yellow.* Only shade half the width on the grid. Look and see that the yellow appears to be the left half of the width of 30 minutes. This takes a moment. See that the next coloring space is ½ width of 30 minutes also. I use orange there. To get the orange I use two 15 minute bars starting at :45 of the hour. (anyone googling before minis when I did this, you see :20 and :50 because of the 8:20 start of DJXX). You see the 30 minute data is interleaved or overlapped. Each 30 minute data segment is 30 minutes and overlapped 15 minutes. We show the H/L of the 30 min with our coloring but we do not overlap the coloring. We leave the right portion of each bar out of the picture so the colors do not overlap.
2. We project the bar trend ahead (A and B) to time E (E is the right side of the 30 min bar; the right side is not colored though). And we then project back horizontally to get the top and bottom of the anticipated 30 min bar (C and D) (The projection is necessary to just show the 30 minutes as narrower bar whose left side only appears and is lined out in green So later the real shading in yellow goes over it when it happens.). You go all the way to E so you keep all distortions out. The bars are 30 min wide and only show as thinner to keep colors separate even though they overlap. 120% of those I mentor screw up their first charts several times inj the first 2 hours. They are frustrated and think I am bugging them to be too accurate. In two weeks their drawings are worth hundreds of dollars each and they are precise, no mistakes and they do not need them anymore to anticipate.
3. Alternate with the yellow and orange bars.
4. Do this along with your stop log on the 5 min fractal.
5. Repeat for 2 weeks straight all day long. so you can do it mentally the rest of your life. Annotate each time that you see the coming turn with the time you see it. At first jamb stops tight into the turns. After 5 successes with stops, then put your orders in to pick off the extremes (opposite the side the stops are on.) with reversals (doubling down). This change alone is equal to more than the long term average take of "edgers". By picking off the volatility width of the market twice every reversal you begin to understand slaloming in chop ahead of the scalpers
since this is 15 min bars, always just exit instead of reverse when you are hitting S or R. Otherwise reverse on all transverses that do not make the S/R limits. This is just beginner warm up stuff.
* look at the 15 min chart and pair tow bars to get the H/L for 30 minutes. you could go to the 30 minute chart and copy. But because you are doing 30 min bars that start at :15 and :45 you can best do it all by pairing all day long.
Here are some examples of precision missed:
Leaving out volume.
Thinking any thing works on any fractal
getting the middle of the first bar by taking the O and C of the bar instead of the H and L
writing a pseudo code for a long trade when the method is a bracket entry that eliminates prediction. The jerk predicts a long instead of anticipating.
writing YM points won in profits as a % to disguise the point on points I was making. Apples and oranges.
not printing list of trades that were entered and where exits were not posted.
Living in the "this VS that" world when it is a world of cooperation and melding.
etc.
Quote from Scientist:
That's absolutely right. I never suggested that, either. It's you "with the market", rather than "against the market". However, I want to ride the flow of the market and then take in advance the positions of other traders by predicting their stops via stop-paths. This is an approach far superior to edge trading. I want have stops where the edge traders are getting into the market. I'm not against the market at all here. I'm in fact "serving" the market....
It's not just about improving your technique. It's particularly about improving your mind, your attitude. Only this will bring permanent change. "Technique" will only last so long as the market does what you think it will. But thinking right is in your mind more than in your indicators or anything.An inaccurate observation that makes all edge traders profit-"scratchers". It's the other way around:
The market does not continually change. It either continues or it changes!
That's a funny theory. So after trading for... Umm... 5 years, you never improve? OK. Well. And what worked great for one year, totally sucks the next? How can you claim that? Also for scalping? Position trading? What kind of trading do you do? Some sort of set-up trading? Please enlighten me.
It is not really linear at all! Much rather in plateaux, as defined by risk management. "Linear" improvement can only occur if you have a standardized approach, such as setup, crossover etc trading. Any kind of edge stuff.
I appreciate your encouragements, my dear brother Alfonso. I definitely attempt to live by those ideas, it's often harder than anything else, but the power of modelling as you can achieve through NLP, for example, can give the term "self-fulfilling prophecy" a very valid meaning indeed. I am going to start a comprehensive NLP Practitioner Course with INLPTA in Sep... See how much it can bring. It's all in your mind
Best Compliments,
~The Scientist
The post you quoted was one of the best "edger" limitation explanations that I have ever seen except for candletrader and Damir.
Four major points in this thread have been made to lay the ground workfor really making money. If an edge trader can grasp any one of them (they do not grasp any it turns out) then the wheel of the four (like the Indian corn color wheel-- white blue yellow and red.) can be entered at any point and then through iterative refinement all four can provide the transition form "edge" to getting an approach that continually extracts the potential all day long.
here is a brief example. What if Damir learned about the market volatility. what if he learned that he leaves more on the table than he takes off. what if he learned to exit on market turns. what if he when from being stopped out on a turn to taking the other side of the volatility.
If you do intraday turns on the market turns; you can do it "inside the turn or "outside" the turn of the market. The change inthe radius of the turn is the bar (market volatility) width. right now Damir makes less than the bar width on a trade. I am suggesting propping him up a little and getting him to make some money. He is an edger whose fortunes come and go as his Edge disappears and reappears. In about five steps we could get him to take twice the volatility on each of his linking trades. he undertrades the market now getting less than a normal 15 min bar witdth per trade. "Noise trading". we could add successively all the over lays on his method and "fix" him in no time flat.
here are the four:
1. Reflexitity (connect everthing together),
2. PT theory (use case A and Case B together),
3. Spectrum: Edge is a ceiling of 1 point a day long term average going to the market's potential (multiples of H/L daily). (start anywhere), and
4. Migration or grasshopper (get to micro(mig) from macro(grass)).
The place where stop tightness shows up is 2 days out of 12. See 6AUG03 and 18AUG03. So no matter whether you stop out loose or tight the same opportunity on the stop out is apparent.
Only twice in 12 days do loose stops keep you in the trade.
by considering what to do on a stop out the excel shows you have to reverse if you get stopped out on an opening bar bracket entry. When you do you get your money back.
Look at the columns on the right to see the scenario.
I looked at the target stuff. Targets are not a good idea but they work for one trade a day type stuff if you want to make 75,000 a year per starting contract. This means for every contract you start with and follow along for a year with the rules you make 75,000 per year. we will to add a contract every two months out of profits to get there.
I put in a column that says how much you could have increased the target each day if you took 30 points or if your reversed on stops and took 30 points. The numbers range from 55 to 110 points. As a starting trader, you have to learn how to take points after you learn to enter and set stops.
Using the excel you always enter on bar 2 it turns out. If you enter you make money or you get stopped out reverse and make money. 30 points is too small a target as shown on the excel. you have to just go to 30 points profit and then begin to think. I recommend just winging it because it is fun. you see profits creep up and usually you can get to 55 fairly easily. Going up after that gets harder. Winging it is a good excercise in thinking and learning to watch stuff.
I used the midpoint as a helper outer. It never came into play. The day of whiplash was a great whiplash day. I could post here how to play on the correct side for that day but I won't. It is not beginner stuff as yet.
In summary:
the rules are rgeat with the modifications suggested. They are:
1. Set stops loose or tight.
2. you will find you enter on the sceond bar.
3. If stopped out, reverse.
4. As you see yourself getting to the target of 30 points to exit. In stead of having an order there a head of time. wait a little. wait a bar, then wait another bar if all is well. If you see you can draw a trend line do it and wait.Point 1, 2, 3. Or do the grid..you may see better bars coming. This is simple winging it. If you get cold feet, wear warmer socks.
5. as you make 30 points or more save them up. when either enough money appears or you are at 2 months into this add another contract. add one at a time so it doesn't make any difference mentally.
6. Plan on not using this as an edge. What it is is the AM entry for staying in the market all day long. Right now we are just getting out after you make 30 or so points right off or after you stop out, recover the loss and then make as many more points as you can winging it to an exit.
here are the expectations: 5 out of 12 with tight stops will make money; then upon a reversal, add 6 out of 7 more for 11 out of 12. For inital bar H/L range under 20 you will not make more than 30 points usually. For other bars over 20 you then go to 55 to 110 point profits either directly or with the stop out reversal going to exit. If you grid or channel, you get more, of course because you have winging aids working.
Later we will do two days in one. We will am it and pm it.
That raises the income per contract to double. Maybe we will work in volume and indicators if someone comes up with some. these make a day work better too. Each one is worth as much as price is for making money.
Print the excel and this and annotate it with reference numbers that connect the two sheets. Print out the daily sheets on 15 min charts and annotate them to the excell also. Grids that you do are worth hundreds of dollars each. Make a booklet for show and tell.
When my students did that in sixth form, their parents made parent teacher conferences. Then I had to go to brokerage firm s once a month and explain the market conditions. One guy gave us a satnadard & Poors full blown brokerage service for free. the students maintain it too. They learned the true meaning of add and delete.
Give yourself a break and get rich....
First bar length
Target amount
stop off sets.
we will use this triangle for each daily trend.
The list of trends is as follows:
Opening (We are doing that)
PM We will do a PM BO at around 13:00
The H/L trend (this is the longest one and it come after the opening one.) the stopout reversal usually uses this one. It is where all the Edges devoted to retraces, resumes, gaps, and so on come from.
The EOD trend. Always a fun one as the funds park, the day traders leave and the bottom fishers have diner.
These four will give us an average of three to five trades a day.
We can divide the profits from these by the H/L of the day and see if we get a number.
we can make lists of edges that fall into each of these four trend periods and see where most of them turnip.
Target amount
stop off sets.
we will use this triangle for each daily trend.
The list of trends is as follows:
Opening (We are doing that)
PM We will do a PM BO at around 13:00
The H/L trend (this is the longest one and it come after the opening one.) the stopout reversal usually uses this one. It is where all the Edges devoted to retraces, resumes, gaps, and so on come from.
The EOD trend. Always a fun one as the funds park, the day traders leave and the bottom fishers have diner.
These four will give us an average of three to five trades a day.
We can divide the profits from these by the H/L of the day and see if we get a number.
we can make lists of edges that fall into each of these four trend periods and see where most of them turnip.