Mental Ceilings and self fulfilling prophesies

Quote from damir00:



this should get you close. for the sake of brevity i left out the volume stuff. using "bar" instead of time to make it independent of fractal-length.
More...

lol...

I love this crap.

The volume peaking means that the intial break out fails fairly soon. if the volume sustains you have an inialt trend of the day

Read the journal of this turkey for about 5 pages. note how many times he:

stays in the market

or makes any points. See if he ever makes over 15 points.

Look at his next entry to see howmuch he left on the table with his prior exit.

See if the gaps between trades have more or less points than he makes on a turn

Redo his trades using the fact of volume reinforcing or failing to reinforce it. especially on the trades where there is an entry and the exit is omitted.

Tractal length. Why did I make the fractal 15 mins?

1. to get past the synch on the open.

2. to get gaps taken care of.

3. to eliminate high volatility problems. After the first bar (15 mins or higher) on high volatility days you get, most likely into "inside" bars on flat days and this keeps you out of the market until a trend does begin to build after all.

4. Faster than 15 min for beginners means that they cannot keep up with the market nor can they trade all day. This guy is a hair triggr trader on faster fractals and he has never done anything but peseudo scalping. I ask him to post something that had to do with trading like a chart or something. he dodn't so i read his crappy journal.

What a silly prologue from a total dunce. He is really, thoughout this thread, a totally burned and spooked guy with tons of garbage in his posts. Wouldn't you think he could have connected with one person in his life to get on some kind of track instead of the crapped up place his speaks from.

This is a negative post.
 
I think you are the only one who understood my post. Actually I understand you from the beginning.....just got to know the "language".

Just trying to lighten up a little.

No disrespect intended and I hope none taken,

Michael B.
 
Quote from Scientist:


So you keep trading, keep trying to find better ways to trade, minimize losses, improve winners all the time - And still you never improve from your current average???

Not even after 5, 10, 20, 50 years (like Jack) ??? :confused:

You'd still only average 1-5-2pts and not improve?

This would be the only profession in the world then where you couldn't improve. Man you really are in a trap there. Don't keep trading, because now you can't improve anymore.
More...


Firstly, Scientist, I'm sorry for having gotten involved in this thread. I'll say this then leave you to it.

I don't think what you're suggesting above is the best way to look at improving trading performance.

It's not really "you vs the market" in the same way as it's "you vs the golf course".

The golf course stays the same, so it's just a matter of you improving your technique and you'll play better and better and better. (At least until such time as physiological factors, such as age, begin to inhibit performance.)

The market doesn't stay the same, it's continually changing.

What worked great one year, totally sucks the next.

You can be in the game for fifty years, I suppose, and not really be that much "better", in terms of returns generated, than after you'd played for five years.

That's precisely why you see excellent traders, who have had many years of excellent returns, have losing years, or months, or whatever, every now and then. Using your "linear" (kind of ) model of improvement, that just shouldn't happen, right?

Where consistent improvement, in a semi-linear kind of fashion, can take place is when going from a consistent loser to the ranks of profitable trader. I think this is more so because there are certain kinds of trader behaviors that can be relied upon to lose money no matter what the market conditions; and improving (whilst still a loser) is more a matter of recognizing them and dropping them.

Anyway, all the best bro. If you can develop ideas that pay better than what traders have generally achivieved in the LR, then all the more power to you. Honestly. (Although I've chided you a few times, you do have some very good ideas about getting the most out of life -- if you are actually living those words, then really, what I say shouldn't matter at all.) Go for it.
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

You are sharing far too much of your experience here. What you just shared a few threads ago went over many peoples head, or there would be much more comment.

The power in trading probabilites again flow and velocity is what you are describing.......This is done in the pit without any indicators and is possible in the Electronic markets too.


Both Jack and Oddtrader have valid methodologies no matter what each of them say....LOL

Michael B.
More...

Thanks Michael for your comments. :)
 
Quote from bubba7:

Read the journal of this turkey for about 5 pages. note how many times he:
stays in the market
or makes any points. See if he ever makes over 15 points.
More...

i'll save everyone the trouble of having to go look. here are the logs for the past couple of months. every trade was posted publicly in real time. performance is improving as my comfort level with the approach improves. which makes sense, at least to me, but then i'm a "dunce". the "no trade" days that fall on thursdays are due to a volunteer committment at a local food bank, the others are days which provided no signals.

i know jack would like me to post a chart, but i can't for the simple reason that i do not use charts to trade. i've been quite up front about that, it's not my fault such a concept is outside the conceptual filters of many traders.

the account % gains are based on a USD$40k account with a 1 contract position size. they are also rounded to 1 decimal place, which sometimes works in my favor, sometimes not.

August to date

ticker in entry out exit AccntGain
============================================
YM long 8/01/03 9150 8/01/03 9171 +0.2%
YM long 8/01/03 9140 8/01/03 9151 +0.2%
YM long 8/01/03 9134 8/01/03 9153 +0.2%
YM long 8/01/03 9135 8/01/03 9147 +0.1%
YM long 8/04/03 9085 8/04/03 9110 +0.3%
YM long 8/04/03 9055 8/04/03 9075 +0.2%
YM long 8/04/03 9055 8/04/03 9075 +0.3%
YM long 8/05/03 9115 8/05/03 9127 +0.2%
YM long 8/05/03 9085 8/05/03 9012 +0.3%
------- 8/06/03 No NoiseBox Trades ---
YM short 8/07/03 9080 8/07/03 9060 +0.2%
YM short 8/07/03 9085 8/07/03 9065 +0.3%
YM short 8/07/03 9090 8/07/03 9075 +0.2%
YM short 8/08/03 9155 8/08/03 9131 +0.3%
YM short 8/08/03 9155 8/08/03 9143 +0.1%
YM long 8/10/03 9181 8/11/03 9201 +0.2%
YM short 8/11/03 9225 8/11/03 9205 +0.3%
YM long 8/11/03 9234 8/11/03 9245 +0.1%
YM long 8/12/03 9197 8/12/03 9213 +0.2%
YM long 8/12/03 9198 8/12/03 9201 +0.0%
YM short 8/12/03 9245 8/12/03 9230 +0.2%
YM long 8/13/03 9265 8/13/03 9286 +0.2%
YM long 8/13/03 9265 8/13/03 9281 +0.2%
YM long 8/13/03 9260 8/13/03 9256 -0.0%
YM long 8/13/03 9240 8/13/03 9256 +0.2%
YM long 8/13/03 9240 8/13/03 9248 +0.1%
YM short 8/14/03 9300 8/14/03 9279 +0.2%
YM long 8/14/03 9260 8/15/03 9285 +0.3%
YM long 8/15/03 9280 8/15/03 9285 +0.1%

NoiseBox Summary, July 2003

Total Trades : 52
Winning* Trades : 47
Avg Win Pct** : 0.45%
Losing Trades : 5
Avg Loss Pct** : 0.2%
Total July Gain : 8.0%

ticker in entry out exit AccntGain
============================================
YM long 7/01/03 8910 7/01/03 8900 -0.1% <--- LOSER!!!
YM long 7/01/03 8870 7/01/03 8900 +0.3%
YM short 7/02/03 9060 7/02/03 9040 +0.2%
YM short 7/02/03 9065 7/02/03 9045 +0.3%
YM short 7/07/03 9135 7/07/03 9170 -0.4% <--- LOSER!!!
YM short 7/07/03 9175 7/07/03 9170 +0.0% (x2)
YM short 7/07/03 9230 7/07/03 9215 +0.2% (x2)
YM short 7/07/03 9225 7/07/03 9215 +0.1% (x2)
YM long 7/08/03 9140 7/07/03 9160 +0.3%
YM long 7/09/03 9150 7/07/03 9165 +0.2%
YM long 7/09/03 9140 7/09/03 9130 -0.1% <--- LOSER!!!
YM long 7/09/03 9115 7/09/03 9130 +0.2% (x2)
YM long 7/09/03 9100 7/09/03 9113 +0.2% (x2)
YM short 7/11/03 9070 7/11/03 9150 +0.3%
YM short 7/11/03 9070 7/11/03 9073 -0.0%
YM short 7/11/03 9100 7/11/03 9081 +0.2%
YM short 7/11/03 9105 7/11/03 9087 +0.2%
YM short 7/11/03 9120 7/11/03 9105 +0.2%
YM short 7/11/03 9120 7/11/03 9110 +0.1%
YM short 7/14/03 9200 7/14/03 9200 +0.0%
YM short 7/14/03 9215 7/14/03 9215 +0.0%
YM short 7/14/03 9230 7/14/03 9215 +0.2%
YM short 7/14/03 9230 7/14/03 9220 +0.1%
YM short 7/14/03 9230 7/14/03 9220 +0.1%
YM short 7/14/03 9236 7/14/03 9220 +0.2%
--- 7/15/03 No NoiseBox trade ---
--- 7/16/03 No NoiseBox trade ---
YM long 7/17/03 9028 7/17/03 9042 +0.2%
YM long 7/17/03 9016 7/17/03 9030 +0.2%
YM long 7/17/03 9017 7/17/03 9017 +0.1%
YM short 7/18/03 9085 7/18/03 9065 +0.3%
YM short 7/18/03 9080 7/18/03 9060 +0.3%
YM short 7/18/03 9081 7/18/03 9070 +0.1%
YM short 7/18/03 9099 7/21/03 9120 -0.2% <--- LOSER!!!
YM short 7/18/03 9135 7/21/03 9120 +0.2%
YM long 7/21/03 9118 7/21/03 9135 +0.2%
YM long 7/21/03 9118 7/22/03 9120 +0.0%
YM long 7/21/03 9098 7/22/03 9110 +0.1%
YM long 7/21/03 9075 7/21/03 9085 +0.1%
YM long 7/23/03 9080 7/23/03 9095 +0.2%
YM long 7/23/03 9080 7/23/03 9091 +0.1%
YM long 7/23/03 9080 7/23/03 9090 +0.1%
YM long 7/24/03 9222 7/24/03 9200 +0.3%
YM short 7/25/03 9140 7/25/03 9118 +0.3%
YM short 7/25/03 9145 7/25/03 9120 +0.3%
--- 7/28/03 No NoiseBox trade ---
YM long 7/29/03 9175 7/29/03 9195 +0.3%
YM long 7/29/03 9145 7/29/03 9160 +0.2%
--- 7/30/03 No NoiseBox trade ---
YM short 7/31/03 9245 7/31/03 9217 +0.3%
YM short 7/31/03 9250 7/31/03 9220 +0.3%
YM short 7/31/03 9255 7/31/03 9265 -0.1% <--- LOSER!!!
YM short 7/31/03 9285 7/31/03 9285 -0.0%
YM short 7/31/03 9310 7/31/03 9290 +0.3%
YM short 7/31/03 9330 7/31/03 9310 +0.3%

NoiseBox Summary, June 2003

Total Trades : 40
Winning* Trades : 37
Avg Win Pct** : 0.25%
Losing Trades : 3
Avg Loss Pct** : 0.90%
Total June Gain : 6.7%

all short term trades...

ticker in entry out exit AccntGain
============================================
YM short 6/02/03 8955 6/02/03 8915 +0.5%
NQ short 6/02/03 1214 6/02/03 1210 +0.2%
YM short 6/04/03 8970 6/09/03 8940 +0.4%
NQ short 6/04/03 1211 6/05/03 1207 +0.2%
YM short 6/04/03 9015 6/05/03 8985 +0.4%
YM short 6/06/03 9190 6/06/03 9160 +0.3%
YM short 6/10/03 9040 6/10/03 9020 +0.2%
YM short 6/10/03 9040 6/10/03 9015 +0.2%
YM short 6/10/03 9040 6/10/03 9015 +0.2%
YM short 6/10/03 9040 6/12/03 9190 -1.5% <--- LOSER!!!
NQ short 6/11/03 1219 6/11/03 1216 +0.2%
NQ short 6/11/03 1219 6/11/03 1216 +0.2%
NQ short 6/11/03 1218 6/11/03 1216 +0.2%
NQ short 6/11/03 1218 6/11/03 1216 +0.2%
YM short 6/11/03 9110 6/11/03 9080 +0.3%
YM short 6/11/03 9120 6/13/03 9155 -0.3% <--- LOSER!!!
YM short 6/11/03 9165 6/11/03 9152 +0.2%
YM short 6/11/03 9165 6/11/03 9152 +0.2%
YM short 6/12/03 9230 6/12/03 9200 +0.3%
YM short 6/16/03 9150 6/18/03 9220 -0.9% <--- LOSER!!!
YM short 6/16/03 9220 6/18/03 9220 +0.0%
YM short 6/16/03 9220 6/18/03 9220 +0.0%
YM long 6/18/03 9220 6/18/03 9250 +0.3%
YM long 6/18/03 9230 6/18/03 9250 +0.2%
YM long 6/19/03 9215 6/20/03 9220 +0.0%
YM long 6/19/03 9185 6/20/03 9220 +0.3%
YM long 6/19/03 9145 6/20/03 9220 +0.8%
YM short 6/20/03 9225 6/20/03 9180 +0.5%
YM long 6/23/03 9110 6/23/03 9125 +0.2%
YM long 6/23/03 9090 6/24/03 9090 +0.0%
YM long 6/23/03 9075 6/24/03 9090 +0.2%
YM long 6/23/03 9025 6/23/03 9045 +0.2%
YM long 6/23/03 9025 6/23/03 9045 +0.2%
YM short 6/24/03 9115 6/24/03 9092 +0.3%
YM short 6/25/03 9132 6/25/03 9118 +0.2%
YM short 6/26/03 9030 6/27/03 9030 +0.0%
YM short 6/26/03 9055 6/27/03 9030 +0.3%
YM short 6/30/03 9020 6/30/03 8990 +0.4%
YM short 6/30/03 9010 6/30/03 9010 +0.0%
YM short 6/30/03 9040 6/30/03 9010 +0.4%
 
Quote from damir00:




August to date

ticker in entry out exit AccntGain
============================================
YM long 8/01/03 9150 8/01/03 9171 +0.2%
YM long 8/01/03 9140 8/01/03 9151 +0.2%
YM long 8/01/03 9134 8/01/03 9153 +0.2%
YM long 8/01/03 9135 8/01/03 9147 +0.1%
YM long 8/04/03 9085 8/04/03 9110 +0.3%
YM long 8/04/03 9055 8/04/03 9075 +0.2%
YM long 8/04/03 9055 8/04/03 9075 +0.3%
YM long 8/05/03 9115 8/05/03 9127 +0.2%
YM long 8/05/03 9085 8/05/03 9012 +0.3%
------- 8/06/03 No NoiseBox Trades ---
YM short 8/07/03 9080 8/07/03 9060 +0.2%
YM short 8/07/03 9085 8/07/03 9065 +0.3%
YM short 8/07/03 9090 8/07/03 9075 +0.2%
YM short 8/08/03 9155 8/08/03 9131 +0.3%
YM short 8/08/03 9155 8/08/03 9143 +0.1%
YM long 8/10/03 9181 8/11/03 9201 +0.2%
YM short 8/11/03 9225 8/11/03 9205 +0.3%
YM long 8/11/03 9234 8/11/03 9245 +0.1%
YM long 8/12/03 9197 8/12/03 9213 +0.2%
YM long 8/12/03 9198 8/12/03 9201 +0.0%
YM short 8/12/03 9245 8/12/03 9230 +0.2%
YM long 8/13/03 9265 8/13/03 9286 +0.2%
YM long 8/13/03 9265 8/13/03 9281 +0.2%
YM long 8/13/03 9260 8/13/03 9256 -0.0%
YM long 8/13/03 9240 8/13/03 9256 +0.2%
YM long 8/13/03 9240 8/13/03 9248 +0.1%
YM short 8/14/03 9300 8/14/03 9279 +0.2%
YM long 8/14/03 9260 8/15/03 9285 +0.3%
YM long 8/15/03 9280 8/15/03 9285 +0.1%

NoiseBox Summary, July 2003

Total Trades : 52
Winning* Trades : 47
Avg Win Pct** : 0.45%
Losing Trades : 5
Avg Loss Pct** : 0.2%
Total July Gain : 8.0%

ticker in entry out exit AccntGain
============================================
YM long 7/01/03 8910 7/01/03 8900 -0.1% <--- LOSER!!!
YM long 7/01/03 8870 7/01/03 8900 +0.3%
YM short 7/02/03 9060 7/02/03 9040 +0.2%
YM short 7/02/03 9065 7/02/03 9045 +0.3%
YM short 7/07/03 9135 7/07/03 9170 -0.4% <--- LOSER!!!
YM short 7/07/03 9175 7/07/03 9170 +0.0% (x2)
YM short 7/07/03 9230 7/07/03 9215 +0.2% (x2)
YM short 7/07/03 9225 7/07/03 9215 +0.1% (x2)
YM long 7/08/03 9140 7/07/03 9160 +0.3%
YM long 7/09/03 9150 7/07/03 9165 +0.2%
YM long 7/09/03 9140 7/09/03 9130 -0.1% <--- LOSER!!!
YM long 7/09/03 9115 7/09/03 9130 +0.2% (x2)
YM long 7/09/03 9100 7/09/03 9113 +0.2% (x2)
YM short 7/11/03 9070 7/11/03 9150 +0.3%
YM short 7/11/03 9070 7/11/03 9073 -0.0%
YM short 7/11/03 9100 7/11/03 9081 +0.2%
YM short 7/11/03 9105 7/11/03 9087 +0.2%
YM short 7/11/03 9120 7/11/03 9105 +0.2%
YM short 7/11/03 9120 7/11/03 9110 +0.1%
YM short 7/14/03 9200 7/14/03 9200 +0.0%
YM short 7/14/03 9215 7/14/03 9215 +0.0%
YM short 7/14/03 9230 7/14/03 9215 +0.2%
YM short 7/14/03 9230 7/14/03 9220 +0.1%
YM short 7/14/03 9230 7/14/03 9220 +0.1%
YM short 7/14/03 9236 7/14/03 9220 +0.2%
--- 7/15/03 No NoiseBox trade ---
--- 7/16/03 No NoiseBox trade ---
YM long 7/17/03 9028 7/17/03 9042 +0.2%
YM long 7/17/03 9016 7/17/03 9030 +0.2%
YM long 7/17/03 9017 7/17/03 9017 +0.1%
YM short 7/18/03 9085 7/18/03 9065 +0.3%
YM short 7/18/03 9080 7/18/03 9060 +0.3%
YM short 7/18/03 9081 7/18/03 9070 +0.1%
YM short 7/18/03 9099 7/21/03 9120 -0.2% <--- LOSER!!!
YM short 7/18/03 9135 7/21/03 9120 +0.2%
YM long 7/21/03 9118 7/21/03 9135 +0.2%
YM long 7/21/03 9118 7/22/03 9120 +0.0%
YM long 7/21/03 9098 7/22/03 9110 +0.1%
YM long 7/21/03 9075 7/21/03 9085 +0.1%
YM long 7/23/03 9080 7/23/03 9095 +0.2%
YM long 7/23/03 9080 7/23/03 9091 +0.1%
YM long 7/23/03 9080 7/23/03 9090 +0.1%
YM long 7/24/03 9222 7/24/03 9200 +0.3%
YM short 7/25/03 9140 7/25/03 9118 +0.3%
YM short 7/25/03 9145 7/25/03 9120 +0.3%
--- 7/28/03 No NoiseBox trade ---
YM long 7/29/03 9175 7/29/03 9195 +0.3%
YM long 7/29/03 9145 7/29/03 9160 +0.2%
--- 7/30/03 No NoiseBox trade ---
YM short 7/31/03 9245 7/31/03 9217 +0.3%
YM short 7/31/03 9250 7/31/03 9220 +0.3%
YM short 7/31/03 9255 7/31/03 9265 -0.1% <--- LOSER!!!
YM short 7/31/03 9285 7/31/03 9285 -0.0%
YM short 7/31/03 9310 7/31/03 9290 +0.3%
YM short 7/31/03 9330 7/31/03 9310 +0.3%

NoiseBox Summary, June 2003

Total Trades : 40
Winning* Trades : 37
Avg Win Pct** : 0.25%
Losing Trades : 3
Avg Loss Pct** : 0.90%
Total June Gain : 6.7%

all short term trades...

ticker in entry out exit AccntGain
============================================
YM short 6/02/03 8955 6/02/03 8915 +0.5%
NQ short 6/02/03 1214 6/02/03 1210 +0.2%
YM short 6/04/03 8970 6/09/03 8940 +0.4%
NQ short 6/04/03 1211 6/05/03 1207 +0.2%
YM short 6/04/03 9015 6/05/03 8985 +0.4%
YM short 6/06/03 9190 6/06/03 9160 +0.3%
YM short 6/10/03 9040 6/10/03 9020 +0.2%
YM short 6/10/03 9040 6/10/03 9015 +0.2%
YM short 6/10/03 9040 6/10/03 9015 +0.2%
YM short 6/10/03 9040 6/12/03 9190 -1.5% <--- LOSER!!!
NQ short 6/11/03 1219 6/11/03 1216 +0.2%
NQ short 6/11/03 1219 6/11/03 1216 +0.2%
NQ short 6/11/03 1218 6/11/03 1216 +0.2%
NQ short 6/11/03 1218 6/11/03 1216 +0.2%
YM short 6/11/03 9110 6/11/03 9080 +0.3%
YM short 6/11/03 9120 6/13/03 9155 -0.3% <--- LOSER!!!
YM short 6/11/03 9165 6/11/03 9152 +0.2%
YM short 6/11/03 9165 6/11/03 9152 +0.2%
YM short 6/12/03 9230 6/12/03 9200 +0.3%
YM short 6/16/03 9150 6/18/03 9220 -0.9% <--- LOSER!!!
YM short 6/16/03 9220 6/18/03 9220 +0.0%
YM short 6/16/03 9220 6/18/03 9220 +0.0%
YM long 6/18/03 9220 6/18/03 9250 +0.3%
YM long 6/18/03 9230 6/18/03 9250 +0.2%
YM long 6/19/03 9215 6/20/03 9220 +0.0%
YM long 6/19/03 9185 6/20/03 9220 +0.3%
YM long 6/19/03 9145 6/20/03 9220 +0.8%
YM short 6/20/03 9225 6/20/03 9180 +0.5%
YM long 6/23/03 9110 6/23/03 9125 +0.2%
YM long 6/23/03 9090 6/24/03 9090 +0.0%
YM long 6/23/03 9075 6/24/03 9090 +0.2%
YM long 6/23/03 9025 6/23/03 9045 +0.2%
YM long 6/23/03 9025 6/23/03 9045 +0.2%
YM short 6/24/03 9115 6/24/03 9092 +0.3%
YM short 6/25/03 9132 6/25/03 9118 +0.2%
YM short 6/26/03 9030 6/27/03 9030 +0.0%
YM short 6/26/03 9055 6/27/03 9030 +0.3%
YM short 6/30/03 9020 6/30/03 8990 +0.4%
YM short 6/30/03 9010 6/30/03 9010 +0.0%
YM short 6/30/03 9040 6/30/03 9010 +0.4%
More...

Amazing results, Damir.
:mad:

You must love this thread very much for reasons. :)
 
i'll save everyone the trouble of having to go look. here are the logs for the past couple of months. every trade was posted publicly in real time. performance is improving as my comfort level with the approach improves.



Sweet! Now, can you teach?

Regards,

Bruce
 
Quote from bdixon619:

i'll save everyone the trouble of having to go look. here are the logs for the past couple of months. every trade was posted publicly in real time. performance is improving as my comfort level with the approach improves.



Sweet! Now, can you teach?

Regards,

Bruce
More...

I am quite sure (=0.1%) Damir must know (of course not steal) and use Jack's secret Coder method very recently. And Damir wouldn't even admit it, yet. :confused:
 
Quote from Tonkadad:




I am really interested about the grid thing, but to be honest I just don't quite understand it. I think I am a more picture oriented person and words sometimes get in the way.
More...

After Gann and Elliott, now we have Jack! Thanks God!!:eek:
 
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