Mental Ceilings and self fulfilling prophesies

[bubba7]

Quote from alfonso:

GP, let me ask you something.

How do you conceptualize of this "ceiling" you talk about?

I think it is very simple to understand if it was some hurdle that one was trying to overcome during a single event, like making 50 free throws in a row.

Then it would be a case of "damn, made 48 again, just can't seem to get past that level".

However, with averaging 1.5 pts (or whatever, I'll just use that), it's a little different. It would have to be in the context that you've been trading X number of months, you look back at your performance, and, lo and behold, you've been averaging 2pts. (!!! woo hoo!)

Psychologically, I suppose that if a person truly holds a belief that says it is just damn not possible to beat 1.5pt over a "significant" period of time, it is possible that some "self-defeating" or "self-sabotaging" behavior could set in that would create some sort of self-fulfilling prophecy that drives his performance back down.

Personally, I'm skeptical that this is the case.

Firstly, it's usually the present we are concerned with. Ie, when I have my current trade on, I'm most interested in seeing its outcome -- not so much concerned with its impact on the overall, long run, average trading performance; that is something that tends to get considered at other, less frequent, times. So, if trading performance is going to suffer because of an alleged limiting belief, it would have to be affecting the *current* (present) trading performance. But if the state of mind regarding the current trade (the present time) is not concerned with the overall long run average performance (the domain in which the limiting belief lies), then I find it very difficult to see how this limiting belief could affect the current trade.
When you consider that the long run average performance consists of all these separate current performances, if the latter is not being affected, then, ipso facto, neither is the former.

Secondly, I again have to turn to the established trading records we have of the top peforming funds. As they have not managed to achieve returns as high as the 5-6 pt ES/day equivalents, we are left to explain why not. Your suggestion seems to be that it is limiting beliefs and self-fulfilling prophecies at work. Well, I believe it is unlikely, but it is possible. Perhaps, though, it is simply the case that, as we all know, markets change and these traders were not able to adapt so well to the changes, and were thus not able to continue their top notch performance; which, ultimately, simply says that trading at such a level is just one very, very tough gig.

You know, it's one thing to quickly appraise an activity and determine what is *possible* to achieve in that activity and very much another to actually do it. I could look at golf and say, well, it's *possible* to birdie (or better) every hole therefore anybody that doesn't do it simply has a mental block. Maybe that is the case. Maybe that is what some might choose to believe. Personally, I wouldn't. And I don't really think I'm being a defeatist by not believing it, considering that birdieing every second hole is still ONE HELL of a performance. Just like in trading, to average 1.5pt/day is ONE HELL of a performance.

What are your views on the transitional aspects of trading?

Capital is always in transition; as that happened for you what were the 5 or 6 concerns that popped up?

Were they in any particular order or did it vary from week to week?

Were you trading before minis or before electronic orders? (just so we mat have a context, please.

Not having a ceiling of any sort, as you do, is interesting. You assign the ceiling to the potential of the market to perform it looks like; you are way ahead of me. I am convinced that I have a ceiling at this point and it seems to be really hard to get to a place to be able to address the situation wisely.

I've traded for weeks on public web sites ahead of the market in real time using the item to to that was requested of me both commodities and specific stocks.) I noticed a bunch of competitors who couldn't understand my trades at all. Strangely they thought I was losing on the trades I posted, especially during congestion. I tried to chat in terms of money velocity as a side consideration and they thought I had my head up my ass.

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from damir00:

meilleur? je ne sais pas, mais certainement it est moins cher.*

both emotionally and financially.



*don't know if it is better, but it is certainly cheaper

*******************************************
I CHOSE to have built a home with mostly standard 8' ceilings;
older homes , custom built homes commenly go higher.

Interesting trend lately;
much more common to see 10 ' ceilings.

Scientist mentioned Marty Schwartz trading 15k into $20,000,000 in about 10 years. Interesting as a 7 year old kid Marty shoveled snow as a little business.

Even more interesting,even with that discipline starting at 7;
his equity curve didnt turn profitable until close to the end of 10 year time time frame.
******************************

Make hay while the sunshines.

 

[bundlemaker]

Quote from alfonso:

Just like in trading, to average 1.5pt/day is ONE HELL of a performance.

This is a great example of what I was talking about with beliefs. Here is an individual discussing trading, stating his/her perception about relative performance. The first thing to note is that the statement is an opinion, yet it is presented like fact. The next thing to note is it is a belief. Again, EVERYTHING is a belief.

Until you begin to notice that EVERYTHING that you consciously or or unconsciouly (thats the hard one)believe is an illusion created by the filtering process of your currently employed neural pathways, you WILL BE STUCK.

Dearest Alfonso, please take no offense, none is intended. This just happened to be a great example, I understand how easy it is to strongly disagree with the notions I'm sharing, until you don't. Then, in an instant, the whole of the universe shifts 3 1/2 inches to the left.

 

[Girlpower]

Quote from bundlemaker:



Then, in an instant, the whole of the universe shifts 3 1/2 inches to the left.

Having gone inside out and been skewed at the same time.

Best

Natalie

 

[bubba7]

Quote from bundlemaker:



This is a great example of what I was talking about with beliefs. Here is an individual discussing trading, stating his/her perception about relative performance. The first thing to note is that the statement is an opinion, yet it is presented like fact. The next thing to note is it is a belief. Again, EVERYTHING is a belief.

Until you begin to notice that EVERYTHING that you consciously or or unconsciouly (thats the hard one)believe is an illusion created by the filtering process of your currently employed neural pathways, you WILL BE STUCK.

Dearest Alfonso, please take no offense, none is intended. This just happened to be a great example, I understand how easy it is to strongly disagree with the notions I'm sharing, until you don't. Then, in an instant, the whole of the universe shifts 3 1/2 inches to the left.

There may be a vertical scale out there like a bell ringing sledge hammer gizmo.


We can build one with different designations that have values for ringing the Bell for different posters.

The long run average is a misnomer. I am hoping that Alphonso willl answer the Q's I asked so we can take long run average off the table. If he takes it off the table it will be better than me suggesting it.

 

[bubba7]

Quote from Girlpower:



Having gone inside out and been skewed at the same time.

Best

Natalie

Did you know sharks turn their stomachs inside out (it goes past their teeth, even). What a moment to have a shark sneeze.

I am doing NLP warm ups.

 

[OddTrader]

Quote from Girlpower:

Suppose there was a 10 or 15 min method which works totaly on picking up trends and takingalrge amounts from the trends, but made losses when the trends didn't run through.

Suppose there was a paralel system on 1 min that 'slalomed' through the market added to that. The 1 min system never picks up big moves or large numbers of points in one go.

Wouldn't the effect of the 1 min systems be to neturalise the failed breaks etc. from the 15 min system, take trades where the bigger system couldn't, and also to increase the returns of the 15 by adding subtracing during the profitable trends, reducing as the retracements start and adding back as direction is resumed?

Wouldn't this change the average p.c. daily /monthly return?

Couldn't using duality be a powerful thing to do?

Just another idle thought to play with.

Best

Natalie

One day, you'll know the answers, one day.

 

[OddTrader]

Quote from alfonso:

Re: Pseudo-Scientist

Why everone would want to become another Scientist?

There must be something interesting and of good value, I would guess.

I'd better hurry up.

 

[baggerlord]

This site is so full of BS I am about ready to stop coming here.

 

[baggerlord]

Quote from baggerlord:

This site is so full of BS I am about ready to stop coming here.

I guess I should elaborate. We got people like myself, new to trading and trying to make it. We got people that acually know how to trade, trade for a living, and make money. Then we got the others. Everytime someone tries to post something intelligent they get overrun by 50 slobbering idiots claiming to avg 5 ES pts a day. They aren't shy about this, but if you ask for some proof all of a sudden that is too personal, they don't like to show off etc... What a f***ing joke. My guess is the majority of these morons are failed traders that can't whip up enough cash to open a new account, so they spend their time pretending they are traders and messing with people that actually do trade. I for one am done with this BS, it is distracting me from my trading. There, I said my piece.