Mental Ceilings and self fulfilling prophesies

Candletrader says that it`s more or less impossible to
reach an average of more than 1-2 points per day
trading the Es-minis.
I don´t agree.
But I agree most traders fail to be profitable.
Why?
99% of the population have no abilities to be good traders
in the first selection because they lack the abilty to make
qiuck economic decisions with you own money in seconds.
Secondly you have to be patience to wait out the the right
trigger.
Thirdly you have to have good moneymanagent and don´t
blame yourself for a trade going wrong instead you have to
be able to take the loss quickly and reverse your position.
You also have to do a lot of work devolping a good trading-
system.
I think maximum one Man/ woman per 100.000 has these
abilities.
Maximum!
 
Quote from AngryBull:

Candletrader says that it`s more or less impossible to
reach an average of more than 1-2 points per day
trading the Es-minis.
I don´t agree.
But I agree most traders fail to be profitable.
Why?
99% of the population have no abilities to be good traders
in the first selection because they lack the abilty to make
qiuck economic decisions with you own money in seconds.
Secondly you have to be patience to wait out the the right
trigger.
Thirdly you have to have good moneymanagent and don´t
blame yourself for a trade going wrong instead you have to
be able to take the loss quickly and reverse your position.
You also have to do a lot of work devolping a good trading-
system.
I think maximum one Man/ woman per 100.000 has these
abilities.
Maximum!
More...

Candle, yourself, others have gone through a reasoned process to develop "a good trading system". Votes are tallied to indicate what is what. For me, I did not vote. The spectrum chosen did not apply to SCT trading. It applied to "good trading systems" only apparently.

These systems allow traders to gain occassional opportunities dailywhen the edge arrives if it does and doesn't fail to process to a conclusion. Traders net results as a consequence of tasks peformed. Your system has requirements that you express above: quickness to react; management of money; taking losses quickly, and now, reversing to get to a better place.

I do not see how anyone could do this poorly and you are verysuspicious that 1 person in 100,000 can.

There is a royal screw up going on here. a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, point variation a day is absolutely guaranteed. Picking off a point a day is impossible not to just fall into. There is continual stuff here about people losing many points or less a day. Notice that someone is opposite hem.

Your post makes me think that you and folks like you do not know anyone making any money out there.

You suggest people, in general or 99%, do not have ability to make money. Every one who has posted in ET can pull down all the money they need. They just haven't started to walk across the bridge to success. It sure as shit does not in any way come down to originating "good trading systems" and trading them.

There is zero demand and zero requirement to do anything new different or unique to make money steadily day after day after day.

Learning how to stay on the sidelines when it is appropriate is the best training a person can get.

The single question everyone has to always have the answer to is: Do I know what the market is doing? Here in ET day by day that question is not answered over and over.

When does a person ever get the right to go in the market? It definitely is not when that person makes a personal judgement that he has completed the design and can operate a "good trading system". "good trading systems" do not ever come close to making 1 or 2 points a day on average and have a money management sysems that keeps money out of the market. Making 1 or 2 points a day in ES and having a maximum of capital in the market on that trade that is 3% of capital is just a vaccuum of thinking and performance.

"Good trading systems" exploit all market opportunitiesavailable and have the perponderance of total capital at diversified risk at all times. Whatever other alternatives that are considered "good trading systems" most also be "working" in a way that resources are applied to opportunity.

Some one here pointed out the Nobel crews worked 30 years on their stuff to get to where they got. The first minute any person gets the twinkling in their eye to make money in markets, they actually avail themselves to a construct and in place foundation that is so large it is indescribable. It is impossible to create from scratch in the global electronic network of resourses.

how long does it take to get out of a person's system that making money in a market is related to chosin a singular market phenomena as the basis. We expect bagger, etc to "pick 5". they do that for the lottery every day. We do not expect experienced people to be stuck in singularity or absoluteness only or relatavistic only. Posting that 99,999 in 100,000 miss the boat is bordering on silly.
 
Quote from trade4succes:

Then somebody with a fat finger takes out all the offers on good news.

You would go tapioca with all your capital invested in three different timeframe accounts.
More...

you have to size for survival. if you know fat-fingers happen, and you don't size/scale/whatever appropriately, then you pretty much deserve what will inevitably happen.
 
Quote from gerry875:

scientist - alter freund - may i ask you, how many trades (on avg.) do you make per month?
More...
On the futures approximately 240 RT/month.
If I focus on scalping, this can become ~800 RT/month.

My current goal is to be able to consistently make 6pts/day with no more than 200 RT/month, ditto a net average of 0.6 per trade. But that's gonna take a little while. Maybe 1-2 years ahead from here. We'll see, I'm halfway there.

Compliments,
~Scientist
 
The question/s I am posing for discussion is this.

"IF, everyone agrees that the longer term avarage on big size is roughly 1 point per day, how much does the 'belief' that the long term avarage is or is going to be about 1 point per day become a mental ceiling, and as a consequence a self fullfilling prophecy?"

Let me just say I've more or less blown out an account before so risk of ruin weighs heavily on my mind as I trade. This does affect my results and my aggressiveness.

Bruce
 
Quote from bdixon619:

The question/s I am posing for discussion is this.

"IF, everyone agrees that the longer term avarage on big size is roughly 1 point per day, how much does the 'belief' that the long term avarage is or is going to be about 1 point per day become a mental ceiling, and as a consequence a self fullfilling prophecy?"

Let me just say I've more or less blown out an account before so risk of ruin weighs heavily on my mind as I trade. This does affect my results and my aggressiveness.

Bruce
More...

i guess this is one of the biggest problems at all. most new traders got absolutely no clue - nevertheless they take too much risk right from the start (cause they think it's all about making money- right?) - which leads to losses of course. then (if money is left) comes the time where they get too risk averse (ones personal pain barrier is reached by then) - which should ultimately hopefully lead to the right balance.
 
Quote from bdixon619:

The question/s I am posing for discussion is this.

"IF, everyone agrees that the longer term avarage on big size is roughly 1 point per day, how much does the 'belief' that the long term avarage is or is going to be about 1 point per day become a mental ceiling, and as a consequence a self fullfilling prophecy?"

Let me just say I've more or less blown out an account before so risk of ruin weighs heavily on my mind as I trade. This does affect my results and my aggressiveness.

Bruce
More...

Hi Bruce,

I wonder if it would be possible for you to share with us basically what you think happened and the reasons (which I'm sure you have long since figured out and corrected) so that we can all learn from that?

Best

Natalie
 
Quote from Scientist:


On the futures approximately 240 RT/month.
If I focus on scalping, this can become ~800 RT/month.

My current goal is to be able to consistently make 6pts/day with no more than 200 RT/month, ditto a net average of 0.6 per trade. But that's gonna take a little while. Maybe 1-2 years ahead from here. We'll see, I'm halfway there.

Compliments,
~Scientist
More...



wow - your broker must kiss your boots, does he?

how much $ per RT?

do you mean 200 trades - or 200 contracts per month?
 
Quote from gerry875:



wow - your broker must kiss your boots, does he?

how much $ per RT?

do you mean 200 trades - or 200 contracts per month?
More...
Yes, brokers have it easy and particularly risk-free.

If you're scalping, that is doing i.e. 40 RT/day with someone like IB, you're paying the equivalent of 3.36 ES points per contract just in commissions!

This gives you an idea how well brokers do.

Besides, you've got to net 3.5 pts after slippage, just to breakeven. It's a tough sport.

Everybody accepts IB as standard, but they charge $2.40 per trade. With FFastTrade for example you pay $1.66 per trade, which is $3.32 /RT rather than IB's $4.80/RT.

I was thinking about getting a trader's agent to get better conditions. However, I'm trying to rather decrease my #of trades than my price of commissions. I think feeding your broker ain't a good idea. So yeah. I'll try to take the other end - Less trades.

200 contracts? LOL. No. 200 round turns for every contract.

Compliments Brother,
~The Scientist
 
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