Mental break-down from TA

Quote from cashmoney69:



Whatever Lamont. I listen, just not to people who try to cut me down and pollute my thread with negative bs.
More...

If you're listening, then why is the same advice given over and over again in your journal and in this thread? Once or twice should be enough. As for negativity, you're supplying plenty of that yourself.

There's a difference between working and being "busy". Start listening to what people are telling you. Act on it. Do the work. Then maybe you'll begin to turn things around.
 
You have to have a system that you TRUST!!!!

From my perspective as a swing trader there is absolutely NO THINKING done while holding a position. You get out when your rules are violated. No ifs, ands, or buts. Once you develop a system that makes money and you trust that system you will find that trading becomes a whole lot less stressful.
 
Quote from Lamont_C:

If you're listening, then why is the same advice given over and over again in your journal and in this thread? Once or twice should be enough. As for negativity, you're supplying plenty of that yourself.

There's a difference between working and being "busy". Start listening to what people are telling you. Act on it. Do the work. Then maybe you'll begin to turn things around.
More...

I think this is 6th or 7th thread that Nathan has started regarding his "problems" while trading. He's gotten great advice from many here in prior threads as well as this one.

This one sticks out from illiquid:

"Very specifically, you must be able to answer why you believe your activities in the market will result in profits; how you will facilitate this transfer of capital; and from whom you will be profiting off of... how will I profit from this set of data, as opposed to someone else?

In other words, work towards defining your role in the markets. Until then, you will have a difficult time differentiating between what is useful and what is not towards that end."

I read this post as a means by which Illiquid is trying to get Nathan to accept reality. Nathan, you completely glossed over this, as you have several other pieces of great advice. Illiquid is asking you to think beyond indicators (which IMO are useless) and to think in terms of your competition. Think about this for a second ~ you are competing and your numbers are the score... this should be a clear sign that you need a strategy/method that is idea/setup based rather than indicator/information based. This is why many here are saying to ignore the news and forget about indicators. I'll join them and say the same thing ~ forget about news and indicators. Focus on price, volume and time.

Failure and success are both realities, certain people cannot accept their reality, they deny and deny until something traumatic happens, usually a severe financial trauma, a divorce, a stint in jail, etc etc. The warning signs are everywhere but people still chose to ignore them.

In this case, Nathan you need to accept the reality of having a failing/inadequate methodology with no preparation and a lack of foundation. This is a warning sign that you cannot ignore. Lescor, Mschey and others (as well as myself) have asked you to write down a response to illiquid's post (essentially a trading plan). It appears like you still have not done this. Why?

Mike
 
Quote from Mike805:

I think this is 6th or 7th thread that Nathan has started regarding his "problems" while trading. He's gotten great advice from many here in prior threads as well as this one.
More...

He's not alone. And anyone who's been around for a few years could easily come up with a list. And all the "traders" on the list would share pretty much the same characteristics, one of which is that none of it is their fault. They are, after all, "trying". Then the booster clubs chime in and cheer them on with keep trying, you'll get it. But they don't. Because they haven't the slightest idea what they're doing ("I read somewhere that traders place a lot of emphasis on the 50dma, so I think I will, too").

And a lot of experienced traders get tired of handing out the same old advice, which just happens to be gold, because the beginners won't pay any attention to it. So the beginners then complain that nobody is willing to help them . . .

A circle within a spiral . . .
 
Quote from lescor:

However from reading your opening post it seems what's really at the root of your problem is fear of being wrong. This is the most basic and classic error that new traders and the general investing public make. Society has conditioned us that being wrong is bad. Being wrong is for losers. Well being wrong is what trading's all about, because you are wrong a lot. In trading, being wrong is just a number, a stat that goes into calculating win rate, expectancy, etc. There can be no emotion attached to being wrong. It's tough to change your thinking, but it can be done.
More...

Well said lescor. If we get it wrong and lose money on a trade, it's simply a cost of doing business.
 
I don't really see what it is you are trying to profit from in the markets. All (long-run) profitable trading exploits predictable market behaviour. You need to identify the predictability, describe it, then devise a method to exploit this predictability.

It's just like the scientific method. You throw something up in the air, and in a predictable fashion it slows down, then reverses direction and starts accelerating towards the ground. Once it hits the ground, it stops. You might not be able to tell the exact height it will reach, it's exact speed etc - but once you see it slowing and then about to change direction, you can bet "down" and be pretty damn sure you will be right.

A stock has a huge speculative bullish following, with lots of positive press, going into earnings season. The stock releases earnings above the average "official" wall street consensus. The stock opens higher, but not as high as one might expect. It rallies for a few minutes, then pauses...then starts selling off hard, quickly reaches unchanged, and finally plunges down dramatically, closing the day down 5-10%. That's a predictable behaviour, "buy the rumour, sell the news", based on over-discounting of widely anticipated fundamentals/news releases. It's happened for centuries and goes on happening even now in 2006.

So far from your post, I don't see any market behaviour you have observed happen repeatedly, let alone one that you could expect to profit from. It seems that, in fact, you have *no* strategy at all.

I suggest you find a predictable market behaviour first. That's the key to all trading - predictable, repeated behaviour by the market. Until you find such behaviour, you are basically just flipping coins, but with <50% odds because of transactions costs.
 
Good.

Cashmoney, I took the thread negative because I believed that you had sufficient advice and I also believed that you wouldn't really act on it. I hoped that the challenge might help you break from your current patterns.

As you can see this struck a chord in others who have "seen it all before." Your homework is to work through this thread, build a simple trading plan that answers the questions (ask the asker if it does while you build it) and overcome your obstacles in the simple ways that have been proved to work in the past. I liked the lack of indicators on your charts in the workstation pictures - less is more.

If you do that, given you have some history and ideas already, you should be consistently profitable in six months and still here to tell me to get stuffed in Sept 07.

On the other hand, you can continue to do what you've done, and continue to get what you've been getting. And even though you don't contribute to my pocket because you trade different markets I hope you will contribute to others here on your way to your final withdrawal from trading.

I still bet that you wont (and nor will most newbies and noobs who read this thread). Lets see. Its a great struggle. Good luck :)
 
Lamont_C

"As for negativity, you're supplying plenty of that yourself."

I could just pretend that life is perfect. I'm simply being honest with myself.

----

Mike805

"Very specifically, you must be able to answer why you believe your activities in the market will result in profits; how you will facilitate this transfer of capital; and from whom you will be profiting off of... how will I profit from this set of data, as opposed to someone else?

In other words, work towards defining your role in the markets. Until then, you will have a difficult time differentiating between what is useful and what is not towards that end."

I read this post as a means by which Illiquid is trying to get Nathan to accept reality. Nathan, you completely glossed over this, as you have several other pieces of great advice. Illiquid is asking you to think beyond indicators (which IMO are useless) and to think in terms of your competition. Think about this for a second ~ you are competing and your numbers are the score... this should be a clear sign that you need a strategy/method that is idea/setup based rather than indicator/information based. This is why many here are saying to ignore the news and forget about indicators. I'll join them and say the same thing ~ forget about news and indicators. Focus on price, volume and time. "


"In this case, Nathan you need to accept the reality of having a failing/inadequate methodology with no preparation and a lack of foundation. This is a warning sign that you cannot ignore. Lescor, Mschey and others (as well as myself) have asked you to write down a response to illiquid's post (essentially a trading plan). It appears like you still have not done this. Why? "


Mike, to reply to you and Illiquid :

"Very specifically, you must be able to answer why you believe your activities in the market will result in profits..

Isn't this a simple answer? To profit from my activites in the market, I have to be faster than the others. If I want to buy, I have to be fast enough to get in at the price I want before prices go up, and to sell, I have to be fast enough to get out before a reversal or stand on the side and watch.

"how you will facilitate this transfer of capital; and from whom you will be profiting off of... how will I profit from this set of data, as opposed to someone else?"

I dont think I understand the first part. I trade in VERY small size (100 - 200 max), getting in/ out is never a problem for transfering capital. Who I profit from depends on my timeframe. If I'm scalping, I'm taking $$ from other scalpers and MM's, if position trading, I'm taking money from other investors, and long term traders. How I profit from this data, again goes back to holding period. For example, when scalping, Trader A who can read the tape better than trader B will make more money because he acts FASTER on the data given and understands it. I could be wrong though.

"This is a warning sign that you cannot ignore. Lescor, Mschey and others (as well as myself) have asked you to write down a response to illiquid's post (essentially a trading plan). It appears like you still have not done this. Why? "

I first must ask, Whats the difference between a system, a method, a plan, and a strategy?... Please tell me if I'm right about the following:

* System - A software package bought from a vendor with years of backtested data. Many traders flock to these "Magic bullets"...That's why I dont have/ use a system.
* Method - A "check list" of what a trader does before entry and before exits.
* plan - Samething as a strategy
* Strategy - A way of trading (scalping, swing, position trade) combined with a method

----

kiwi_trader

"As you can see this struck a chord in others who have "seen it all before." Your homework is to work through this thread, build a simple trading plan that answers the questions (ask the asker if it does while you build it) and overcome your obstacles in the simple ways that have been proved to work in the past. I liked the lack of indicators on your charts in the workstation pictures - less is more."

"I still bet that you wont (and nor will most newbies and noobs who read this thread). Lets see. Its a great struggle. Good luck"

Here is my plan.

My trading plan is to trade NASDAQ stocks like I've been doing. I like the volitility, and liquidy of the NASDAQ compared to NYSE equities. I like to hold at least a week so the stock has time to develop a trend worth acting on. My longest trade so far has been two weeks, but feels much longer when you watch every tick. Most my indicators (not as many as before) are on my 15 minute chart. I think if I could only have two, it'd be volume and CCI. My favorite thing to do is short stocks that have had big run ups, or made new highs. This leads me to explain how I scan for stocks.

I look for stocks that have had a gap open of at least one point or more, then I look at stocks that have gone up at least 1% or more in dollar value. Once I get my list, I look at the daily charts and ask myself: Where is the current price in relationship to its major tops and bottoms in the past?, Is the stock in a channel?, has it broke channel lines?, In the past week, was there any higher than normal volume that could push the stock higher to cause a short squeeze?, What does the CCI say, as well as the other indicators?..

MA's are one thing I always look at before a trade. MA crossovers are a reliable signal and when a stock falls below one MA, then the other, that gives a clue. Now the hard part is finding out when to enter, because this always screws me over at some point. In a perfect world, a great chart would show a stock opening lower and closing lower, making lower highs, and lower lows. Because this doesn't always happen, I get confused on entry. Example look at RIMM. On daily it opened and closed higher on the gap, but on 15 min chart I'm lost. Stops depend on position size. Smaller size ( under 100) I dont mind risking about 2 points.

Sorry if I left out anything.
 
have u ever noticed that before initiatin' a winnin' trade u felt a kinda strange euphoric, counterintuitive feelin' in your guts? well, i dont know if i describe it right but u shoud know that there's a sort of pre-realization that tells u if u are likely to be right or wrong. concentrate on cultivatin' that gut feelin' and introspectin' to understand when u get it and when u dont. then stay out when u begin' to think too much and feel nothin'; all trades should be based on feel not thought/idea. ideas send u broke.
 
Excellent. Step 1. My market opens in 4 minutes so I can't read through it now but I will do later. I will also hunt a good trading plan template down and post it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top