Mental break-down from TA

to be honest, i think Elder's, Douglas's etc. books have cost me a considerable amount of time - specifically their statements about beliefs, analogies with sports etc. - i am still amazed that people who seem to be making a living out of trading refer to this material in any respectful way.

think about your day-to-day life - you know there is a level of predictability - you know that while you can't plan your day 100%, still every day will go through predictable motions.

why and how do you know that? well, because you know how things work in your day-to-day life - you know if you want to get a cup of coffee in the morning - you know where and how to get it.

now look at your opening post - you clearly have no clue how to get a cup of coffee.

why is that - (1) the markets aren't as simple as a cup of coffee
(2) you haven't spent the time trying to understand the basics

you know how getting a cup of coffee works - they have to get the coffee - be ready to serve you, make sure it's well prepared etc. - and you come up and pay and get it.

so with your approach to the market - there is coffee for sale - but instead of you coming up and saying: i know how it works, i want it, here is my cash, i will pay for it - you come up and say:

Daily (4 months):
* volume
* 50 EMA
* 15 SMA (high)
* 15 SMA (low)
* 20 SMA
* 7 SMA

15 minute (16 days):
* volume
* 7 SMA
* 15 SMA
* CCI (parameter set to 15)
* MACD

60 minute (8 weeks):
* 15 SMA
* BB's (with 20 ma)
* volume
* MACD

Weekly (4 years):
* 7, 15 SMA's
* 50 EMA
* BB's with 20 ma
* volume
* MACD
* ADX



well it's like offering IMAX to a blind man, who's gonna sell you any coffee for the above...

there are plenty of things that make the markets tick - they tick for a reason, just like coffee is being brewed for a reason.

stop focussing on candy wrappers and clinging to superfluous writings offering "inspiration" "strength" "motivation" "inner..."

start thinking about: what is the reason why something should go from price A to price B? the reason is going to be NOT your MAs Bollingers etc etc etc - there are plenty more REAL, logical reasons, same reasons that get the coffee sold every day.

all the best.
 
Here is my problem:

I'm a swing trader, and every day now i feel more and more confused about what I should do. If I'm in a position, I cant figure when to get out, and if I'm trying to get in, I have a hard time knowing what's the right price to buy/short.

Cash, the problem starts and ends with the first 4 words that describe your dilemma... "I'm a swing trader".

Your're not. You're trying hard without knowing or applying the rules that a swing trader lives by - Setup & Entry/Exit rules. Without mastering these you will be confused.

Now you have jumped into multiple timeframe analysis to solve the problem. This is a more advanced/complex method which is compounding your confusion. Now you have multiple Setup & Entry/Exit issues.

If you continue you will possibly have a breakdown. The answer is to go back to first principles and master your Setup & Entry/Exit rules on ONE timeframe. Only then should you try to drill down to a smaller timeframe.

Keep a screen capture journal of every chart Setup & Entry/Exit that fits your rules and monitor the results until you know a good opportunity and can trade with peace of mind.

Until then paper trade only. The problem is not what you have on your screen, because your mentor may use these successfully. Every indicator has fantastic power in the hands of a master trader. I use loads of them, but I can read a price only chart better than most.

For you my friend, it's back to page one. And it's where every beaten trader has gone at some point in their journey, for every great trader was born there.
 
Quote from yoohoo:



For you my friend, it's back to page one. And it's where every beaten trader has gone at some point in their journey, for every great trader was born there.
More...

Aside from all my troubles, I still think its funny how I was more profitable in my first few weeks of trading than I was in the last four months combined.

...Now if I could only figure out what I was doing right...hmmm

--

I've delete the weekly and 60 minute from my set-up and now am just using daily and 15 minute. I still have a few indicators but I reduced it down to four.

My mind feels more relaxed now. It'll be interesting to see what happens on Monday.
 
Chalk it up to luck and possibly the fact that you've over complicated things along the way. The worst thing that can happen to a beginning trader is that he/she has success right away. It gives them a false sense of accomplishment. Reality is usually right around the corner.

Quote from cashmoney69:

Aside from all my troubles, I still think its funny how I was more profitable in my first few weeks of trading than I was in the last four months combined.
More...
 
Try answering this question of yourself, before you go any further:

Why do you believe you deserve to make money from the market AKA out of the pockets of all other traders who are also looking to make a profit?

Don't take it the wrong way -- it's an honest and serious question. Why? Because once you discover a confident answer, everything you need to prove yourself right will become crystalline, while all else just falls away.
 
cash - many good replies here and my suggestions are basically the same:

1) Simplify your charts!!! You have WAY TOO MUCH junk on there. There are only so many indicators/oscillators out there and many are basically the same just slightly different.

2) If you feel the need to have an indicator on the chart, find 1 or 2 and learn them inside and out. Learn when they work well and when they don't (ie trending vs. choppy days).

3) Paper trade and paper trade some more. You also need to see how your stocks react with the indicator(s).
 
Quote from cashmoney69:

Here is my problem:

I'm a swing trader, ..

15 minute (16 days):
* volume
* 7 SMA
* 15 SMA
* CCI (parameter set to 15)
* MACD
..
More...

diagnostic: too many charts;
solution: stick 1 chart until you find your way.

for example, take a 15m chart (a life time in my universe)
rule: buy when fast line cross zero line on CCI and MACD, use prev low as stop, hang on as long as 7 SMA above 15 SMA, out when SMA cross down. keep at it until you comfortable enough to take couple of indicators off since they gave duplicated signals any way. And after you master this setup and its nuance you suddenly realize you don't need to know everything happening in market to make money.
 

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Quote from illiquid:

Why do you believe you deserve to make money from the market AKA out of the pockets of all other traders who are also looking to make a profit?
More...

Publish more books about trading for a living seriously! :)
 
Cash, from a different perspective, I abandoned holding overnight. If I could predict what the market would do even one day from now I would be one fortunate person. IMO other forces influence the market more than TA analysis I was using could predict, such as world news, Fed speak, price of oil, interest rates, time of year. To rely on TA to predict moves didn't work for me (not to say it doesn't for others).

A comfortable time frame for me is intraday trades. I'm watching the direction of the market via the Nasdaq and Snp futures, and the DJIA. Has the market broken out/down and how strong is the market trend? The change in direction of the Arms index for the Naz and the DJIA, $trin, $trinq helps show a change in the market accumulation/selling. Also is the sector strong or out of favor? Are there recent news/earnings events or upgrades/downgrades for your stock?

Multi time frame charts show support/resistance, possible breakout/breakdown (or reversals off those). The charts are simple, price and volume.

Intuitive skills can be refreshed by taking a day off from trading and watching the action for some stocks, keeping the eyes on L2 and the charts.

I"m not suggesting that you change your trading time frame or that TA doesn't work. Only offering a different perspective.

Thanks. Good luck and good trading.

Mike
 
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