'member when the market turned the corner in 2009....

S

SoyUnGanador

but most everyone was saying it was just a matter of time before it cratered again? And those people got left behind in one of the biggest bull markets in history?

I wouldn't let that be you this time around.

Just something to think about...
 
The Fed really ramped up QE in March 2009, marking the bottom.

Same in 2020.

We are seeing the market hoping the Fed will do that again soon. Rather than waiting for the Fed to actually announce it.
 
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The market also had dropped more than 50 % by then. The FED is determined to fight inflation right now. It’s a different situation and not comparable.

Bear market rallies can be very strong and we’ve had several already this year.

Something to think about… :)
 
Laissez Faire said:
The market also had dropped more than 50 % by then. The FED is determined to fight inflation right now. It’s a different situation and not comparable.

Bear market rallies can be very strong and we’ve had several already this year.

Something to think about… :)
More...
Yeah lots of trading to be had. Strong moves = good trading.

Seen-traded 87', 00', 9/11, 08, etc. The only thing to really be gleamed from all that is:
  1. Markets can be disorderly be prepared. Seriously!
  2. Get comfortable with uncertainty. Those who are not are handicapped*.
  3. Time of sales block trades in futures are dead giveaways.
  4. The 200 day and week are favorites on major moves.

* 'Comfortable' is not the same as ignorance.
 
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Businessman said:
The Fed really ramped up QE in March 2009, marking the bottom.

Same in 2020.

We are seeing the market hoping the Fed will do that again soon. Rather than waiting for the Fed to actually announce it.
More...

Pretty much. I reckon we see a rally lasting at least a couple of weeks. After that, and as we move towards next spring, the market may be setting itself up for major disappointment. 10-year yields are just 65bps above the 2018 peak, and falling. In real terms they are deeply negative, close to -4%. There isn't any historical evidence that material levels of inflation can be brought down by deeply negative real yields.

Perhaps we'll get lucky this time; if not, it should start to dawn on market participants around spring of next year.
 
Laissez Faire said:
The market also had dropped more than 50 % by then. The FED is determined to fight inflation right now. It’s a different situation and not comparable.

Bear market rallies can be very strong and we’ve had several already this year.

Something to think about… :)
More...

Not comparable because the economy is in far better shape now then in 2009. You obviously haven't fully thought this through. Again, and I have to repeat this so many times on here, there are already a ton of cheap stocks on the board. There were even more a month ago.
 
SoyUnGanador said:
but most everyone was saying it was just a matter of time before it cratered again? And those people got left behind in one of the biggest bull markets in history?

I wouldn't let that be you this time around.

Just something to think about...
More...
Lows across the board coming in 2023.
 
Laissez Faire said:
The market also had dropped more than 50 % by then. The FED is determined to fight inflation right now. It’s a different situation and not comparable.

Bear market rallies can be very strong and we’ve had several already this year.

Something to think about… :)
More...
True, but the market has already dropped a little over 30%, just like the COVID and 1987 crashes. It doesn't "have" to drop 50% or wait for the Fed to stop raising rates or restart QE...like so many people seem to think.
 
I remember the exact bottom in 2009. People at work were flooding the internal company blog begging that managers force our 401K administrator to allow choices like DOG so employees could bet against the market. IMO (which is worthless of course) the bottom may not happen for another year or so.
 
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