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German business confidence plummets
By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt - FT
Published: November 24 2008 10:24 | Last updated: November 24 2008 10:24
German business confidence has plummeted to lows not seen since the early 1990s in the latest evidence that Europeâs industrial powerhouse has suddenly been thrown into reverse.
The Munich-based Ifo index reported its business climate index had fallen much more sharply than expected from 90.2 in October to 85.8 in November, the lowest since February 1993.
It was the sixth consecutive monthly fall in the index, which is closely watched as an indicator of future trends in activity. Businessesâ expectations about the next six months were the weakest since the pan-German series started in 1991 â and for almost 50 years using data for former West Germany, economists said.
The indexâs precipitous fall highlights the dramatic effect that slowing global demand has had on Europeâs largest economy, which had relied largely on exports, and more recently corporate investment, to power growth.
In contrast to the UK and US, German consumers have not fared as badly â the country has not seen a house price collapse and lower oil prices have boosted spending power.
But Hans-Werner Sinn, Ifo president, warned: âThe economic downturn has hardened and will now also affect the labour market.â
The Ifo index peaked at 108.8 in December 2006 and had fallen steadily until the middle of this year, when it took a sudden turn for the worse.
Last month, the two components of the index showed different pictures. The part covering businessesâ assessment of current conditions actually rose, while the component covering expectations for the next sixth months dropped sharply.
This month, those expectations showed signs of becoming self-fulfilling, with the assessment of current conditions falling to the lowest level since August 2005.
The latest results will reinforce expectations that, after already having fallen into recession in the second and third quarters of this year, German gross domestic product will contract further in the fourth quarter â and probably during much of 2009.
The crucial test for Germany will be how far the recession affects the countryâs unemployment total and, in turn, consumer spending. To avert a deep and protracted recession, Germany will have to rely on domestic demand.