Melt Up

[makloda]

Quote from frank grimes:
ok if you had TO BET YOU"RE ENTIRE BANK ROLL, who would have the balls to sell @1526-1550? I leg into my biggest sale @ 1551-1660? who's with me?

That's not having balls, that's outright nuts. I'd never put all capital into one trade.

 

[Joab]

Quote from Ansare:

Let me see if I get this straight. You're suggesting we take a Goldman Sachs report as gospel?

That's funny.

He humors all of us

 

[Joab]

Quote from dtrader98:

Interesting, Just looking at their chart alone says revenue has been decreasing faster than the rate of GDP's descent.
The visual picture just about contradicts the author's argument IMHO. Revenue is not doing well, as seen in the diagram. One could argue that it has just begun to transition downward along with GDP, just as in 2000. It seems more useful to look at the rate of change of revenue, rather than the absolute level. Was the 15% revenue pk. in 2000 a harbinger of good things to come in the markets and economy?
No, just the opposite.

About the only thing I ascertain from the author's revenue chart, is that it shows that this time the markets are ignoring the negative rate of change of revenue as a catalyst to their euphoric ascent. Nor are they correlating to the decrease in the rate of change of GDP.

However, there did appear to be a delay between the revenue's bottom trough, and the market's bottom (about a year). Perhaps the same delay will occur between the revenue peak in mid 06, and the actual market top -- when it does eventually arrive.

I'd say they'd be more convincing with a chart of market liquidity pumping (M3) vs. market's ascent. Unfortunately, the cost of printing M3 is too expensive to print these days.

JMHO.
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"Patterns are the fool's gold of the financial markets. They are the inevitable consequence of the human need to find patterns in the patternless." Mandelbrot

Finally a man with a working healthy brain...

Great comments !!!

 

[SiSePuede!]

Quote from dtrader98:

Interesting, Just looking at their chart alone says revenue has been decreasing faster than the rate of GDP's descent.
The visual picture just about contradicts the author's argument IMHO. Revenue is not doing well, as seen in the diagram. One could argue that it has just begun to transition downward along with GDP, just as in 2000. It seems more useful to look at the rate of change of revenue, rather than the absolute level. Was the 15% revenue pk. in 2000 a harbinger of good things to come in the markets and economy?
No, just the opposite.

About the only thing I ascertain from the author's revenue chart, is that it shows that this time the markets are ignoring the negative rate of change of revenue as a catalyst to their euphoric ascent. Nor are they correlating to the decrease in the rate of change of GDP.

However, there did appear to be a delay between the revenue's bottom trough, and the market's bottom (about a year). Perhaps the same delay will occur between the revenue peak in mid 06, and the actual market top -- when it does eventually arrive.

I'd say they'd be more convincing with a chart of market liquidity pumping (M3) vs. market's ascent. Unfortunately, the cost of printing M3 is too expensive to print these days.

JMHO.
-------------------------------------------------
"Patterns are the fool's gold of the financial markets. They are the inevitable consequence of the human need to find patterns in the patternless." Mandelbrot

Your comments about the liquidity in the markets are spot on in my opinion. Cheers.

 

[Joab]

wow

The numbers jumped overnight and now 33% of ET readers are fading this move.

Thanks for the honesty folks.

It's my personal opinion that at the end of the day no one except the very nimble will profit too much from this price action.

My "guess" is that this market is unsustainable and will sooner or later catch everyone with there pants down both Bulls and Bears.

Remeber it's not what you make each day it's what you keep at the end of each month/year and how much you take OFF the table.

 

[rhymeswithorang]

Thanks, tell us when you give up and turn bullish so we can sell you the longs built up in last three months

 

[rhymeswithorang]

"My "guess" is that this market is unsustainable and will sooner or later catch everyone with there pants down both Bulls and Bears."

Very insightful, "sooner or later." No doubt. Way out on a limb there.

 

[Joab]

Quote from rhymeswithorang:

"My "guess" is that this market is unsustainable and will sooner or later catch everyone with there pants down both Bulls and Bears."

Very insightful, "sooner or later." No doubt. Way out on a limb there.

Any day you want to trade live against me you can find me in the live chat room.

Feel free to join A D D boy

 

[rhymeswithorang]

oh yeah, we'll go toe to toe. We can make calls and see how they do. And the winner gets......... nothing. You're a loser, you still can't ignore me for some reason which suggests you are weak willed and not a professional.

 

[brandon12]

i'm looking for a 1500 pt meltup in the next 6 weeks to blow all the shorts away. but remember were on a trading board were people are traders and skeptical. in the general public 1 out of a 1000 even know what shorting is