Medium Term Trading of SP500 with Cycle Analysis

[SPX Blaster]

I did today work on my cycles and am probably going to follow this version for my trading. Follow only 3 markets. You see the red lines near the full moon date of Sep 14 (On SP chart on top)? They show down movement. That is the way the market will move with high probability.

 

[SPX Blaster]

20 Years from now? I assume it would be up.

Would you believe that I think we're in a bear market now, and this past rally was just an up move in a bear market? I don't think we'll see new highs above the July 31 highs. But I could be wrong.

I think it's highly probable the early August lows will be broken within the next 2 months.

 

[Overnight]

Would you believe that I think we're in a bear market now, and this past rally was just an up move in a bear market? I don't think we'll see new highs above the July 31 highs. But I could be wrong.

I think it's highly probable the early August lows will be broken within the next 2 months.

I would not disbelieve that you think we're in a bear market now, because we have one or two others on the forum who have been saying the same thing for quite a while, as we kept making ATH since those past declarations.

But 20 years from now, I truly believe we will be higher than where we are today. We WILL be higher than 3000 in the S&P. There are some caveats to this call...

Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy destroys all human life on earth...

Nuclear war destroys all life on earth...

A many-mile-wide meteor hits us and destroys all life on earth...

The Yellowstone volcano finally blows it's stack and destroys all life on earth...

Cute cats...

The list is almost endless on how we could have an S&P lower than 3000 in 20 years. But the chances are lotto-jackpot-like slim on the odds.

 

[SPX Blaster]

I would not disbelieve that you think we're in a bear market now, because we have one or two others on the forum who have been saying the same thing for quite a while, as we kept making ATH since those past declarations.

But 20 years from now, I truly believe we will be higher than where we are today. We WILL be higher than 3000 in the S&P. There are some caveats to this call...

Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy destroys all human life on earth...

Nuclear war destroys all life on earth...

A many-mile-wide meteor hits us and destroys all life on earth...

The Yellowstone volcano finally blows it's stack and destroys all life on earth...

Cute cats...

The list is almost endless on how we could have an S&P lower than 3000 in 20 years. But the chances are lotto-jackpot-like slim on the odds.

My method is timing only. I don't know what price levels will be in most cases. I can work out a price swing that may last 5 to 10 days 20 years into the future, but I don't know what price will be at that time.

 

[SPX Blaster]

For the record. My long term cycle of stock index shows a price cycle low in mid June 2020, lasting till a high mid July 2020. I have no idea what price will be or how far the market may move.
If the market is in a strong down trend at that time, the up move I indicated may be short lived.

It seems there will be a rally in stocks from the low in starting around Nov 1. to a high in late Feb.

 

[SPX Blaster]

20 Years from now? I assume it would be up.

Yes, the reason it will be up is because it is a ponzi scheme. The investor's of 30 years ago are selling their stock to the greater fool.

 

[SPX Blaster]

20 Years from now? I assume it would be up.

I have a friend who worked for GMAC. As part of his compensation, he was given GM shares of stock. He held the stock, never selling it. Guess what it's worth now. Zero. He also lost his pension.

 

[SPX Blaster]

Here is an example of my cycle analysis. This is crude oil for the month of September.

View attachment 207683

Just going through posts in my thread and came across my crude oil cycle for September posted on August 24. My cycle analysis predicted a price high sometime around Sep. 7. The actual high came in Sep. 5.

 

[SPX Blaster]

Agree average swings are a waste of time. Average anything as to how it relates to the markets are worse than useless - they fool those who think they found something.

IMO cycles are best suited to short term and by that I mean 3-6 swings, not short time amounts like minutes. But have fun.

This wouldn't give you an edge? See my post above.

 

[SPX Blaster]

Here's corn.


View attachment 207945

Just looked at my corn cycle posted Aug. 28. Wouldn't this give you an edge over other traders who are making guesses based on some indicator's?

Granted, it does not tell how far price will move. Just the timing of the move.