Mechanical ES system

[jboydston]

Quote from jack hershey:



Thank you for correcting your original post as you did. You may want to rewrite it at this point for your persona; convenience.

I'll expand on my comments part by part.


When i read you post and duped up your MA's I could see that you would always be entering on gap ups. The 63 duration guarantees this. you then will always be taking a loss on that entry as the gap retrace usually occurs.

...

Wow, Mr. Hershey, you are obviously very sophisticated, wise and experienced. I won't attempt to understand all that you've explained here in this thread. Perhaps this would be an interesting topic all it's own?

I would like to focus this thread on wether or not a mechanical system that backtests positively can be successful. I picked this system purposely because of it's obvious flaws. I am interested in evaluating the long term potential of mechanical trading.

Mr. Hershey, what would your experience tell us about mechanical systems? Is Optimized Backtesting irrelevant? Too optimistic?

 

[tah]

Jboydston,

I briefly scanned the contents of your thread and I saw where you said that you would post the Tradestation perf. report, but I never saw it.

I would be interested in seeing how this system performs on a long term backtest. Do you use TS 2000i or 7.0?

Thanks,

tah

 

[DblArrow]

No more trades?

One thought I have continued to have - is that you have backtested this over this last bear market.

Seems to me that during a bull (however slight) that you would miss a lot of the profit of the upturn - but quickly catch the small corrections.....

Would you consider testing this on a perevious bull market and check the results.

Make 'em pretty, Chris

P.S. If I understand this, this is NOT a crossover system, taking trades when the 6 crosses the 63; but when prices penetrate those ma's? (bassocat5's indication)

 

[dis]

Quote from jboydston:

System:

Long = open of first bar preceding price breaking up through 63MA

Short = open of second bar preceding price breaking down through 6MA[/B]

Can't beat tradng with a 20/20 hindsight!
---

 

[Lobster]

How about this scalping system:

tick chart

enter long on every tick preceding four consecutive up-ticks

enter short on every tick preceding four consecutive down ticks

stop is not necessary

take profit before the first tick in the adverse direction

Any comments?

 

[Girlpower]

Quote from Lobster:

How about this scalping system:

tick chart

enter long on every tick preceding four consecutive up-ticks

enter short on every tick preceding four consecutive down ticks

stop is not necessary

take profit before the first tick in the adverse direction

Any comments?

Sounds like a job for that guy in that spoof article - that when he was arrested on charges of insider dealing after turning $800 into $350m in 2 weeks claimed he was from the future (as featured in another thread)... Wouldn't that be a neat trick though.

Natalie

 

[traderkay]

hm done? boydston, your journals dont last eh.

 

[tah]

traderkay, yes, I hear ya...I was kind of thinking the same thing. I never got a reply to my question to jboydson which is listed on the prior page.

tah