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meats
- Thread starter Rtrader2525
- Start date
yeah pigs unlocked there for a bit on friday, lots of selling up top there but it relocked we will see what happens sunday night. They hold an enormous premo to cash so who knows how far they will push it. fund buying without a doubt though. Hope everybody is having a good weekend. its getting cold here
lets see what happens today fellas i added to feb jun friday when feb unlocked and we will see what she does today
Platinum/Gold spread is kinda wide, and aching to come back in. Sell the white, buy the yellow, make the green.
Aug/Feb Fat Cattle looking to be the same way, especially now that the golden roll is winding way down.
Both are at relative statistical extremes, if you care about that stuff.
Peace.
Aug/Feb Fat Cattle looking to be the same way, especially now that the golden roll is winding way down.
Both are at relative statistical extremes, if you care about that stuff.
Peace.
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thanks circadian. Have been watching platty gold and it has been absolutely steamrolling everything. Thanks for the heads up on the fat spread
Quote from Rtrader2525:
thanks circadian. Have been watching platty gold and it has been absolutely steamrolling everything. Thanks for the heads up on the fat spread
No problem man. I got into the fat spread early, as I just started trading the meats, so I was figting the golman roll for a little bit, but once the roll stopped, it all worked out. It's amazing how much an index roll like that can distort these smaller markets. It was just like everything stopped working, except what Goldman was doing. Can't fight the big, ugly money.
Hey Rtrader, I just wanted to post a very interesting chart of the Feb Live cattle contract. What I did was I took a snippit of the current price action we've been in, over the past couple of weeks, flipped it upside down, and overlayed it on the cattle top of last summer......they look uncannily similar. I think live cattle is making a valid bottom here, and should start it's seasonal rally that should carry us well into Q2. Of course this would be in the absence of any shockingly terrible economic or industry data that would derail this move. If we get another October-like downdraft in the equities and make new lows (good probability, just don't know the timeframe), I would expect many of the commodities to follow, including meats.
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thanks circ that is very interesting. I really do think that a valid bottom is being put in here, this is not trading advice certainly but anything that weighs less than a fat cow, is undervalued in comparison. I was long fats and short feeders no I am really looking at going long the feeders and short the fats. Anyways happy MLK day to all, it wa great to have a three day trading weekend.
Well tuesday was interesting across all of the markets, to include the meats. The cash trade last week in the fed cattle market was at 84.50, and an average of the historical February basis would price the futures at around a buck higher at 85.50. Arbitrage opportunity?? We'll see how the cash trade and American equities hold up this week.
I have a spreadsheet program that I developed to help guage the day's price action before the cattle pit opens up at 9:00 a.m. It took me a little bit to get the weightings, and formulas adjusted and optimized, but this program (I named the "Live Cattle Daily Directional Indicator") has been accurate about 80% over the past month since I have started fielding it. It scores a handful of variables that are important in gauging the daily price action. You can see on the screenshot the basics like the s&p futures, $us index futures, and cot report figures, but there are some other variables that I'm going to keep on the "down low", as they're proprietary, and very valuable to the model. Anyhow, I just input all of the variables, and the program kicks out a score on the scale of -80 to +80. A positive score means the day will most likely be positve, and visa versa. The stronger the score(with regards to its pos. or neg. values) , the greater the amount of upside or downside in the day. A score of 0 means flat finish on the day. I have a proprietary variable that I use that really helps to predict (with uncanny accuracy) the dollar figure of upside or downside on the day. Look at the lower right of the spreadsheet. You can see that based off of the previous closing price of 84.45, the program called for minus 1.09 on the day. The pits (feb) opened at 83.70, now subtract 1.09 from 84.70 and you get 82.61. The pit closed at 82.55. This is all done premarket, BTW, that's why it's important, it's not some ex post facto bullshit. It's a forecaster.
I'm still refining it, but it works pretty damn well so far, so I won't refine it too much. Holy Grail?? No. Awesome, forward looking indicator with high win probability, YES.
I have a spreadsheet program that I developed to help guage the day's price action before the cattle pit opens up at 9:00 a.m. It took me a little bit to get the weightings, and formulas adjusted and optimized, but this program (I named the "Live Cattle Daily Directional Indicator") has been accurate about 80% over the past month since I have started fielding it. It scores a handful of variables that are important in gauging the daily price action. You can see on the screenshot the basics like the s&p futures, $us index futures, and cot report figures, but there are some other variables that I'm going to keep on the "down low", as they're proprietary, and very valuable to the model. Anyhow, I just input all of the variables, and the program kicks out a score on the scale of -80 to +80. A positive score means the day will most likely be positve, and visa versa. The stronger the score(with regards to its pos. or neg. values) , the greater the amount of upside or downside in the day. A score of 0 means flat finish on the day. I have a proprietary variable that I use that really helps to predict (with uncanny accuracy) the dollar figure of upside or downside on the day. Look at the lower right of the spreadsheet. You can see that based off of the previous closing price of 84.45, the program called for minus 1.09 on the day. The pits (feb) opened at 83.70, now subtract 1.09 from 84.70 and you get 82.61. The pit closed at 82.55. This is all done premarket, BTW, that's why it's important, it's not some ex post facto bullshit. It's a forecaster.
I'm still refining it, but it works pretty damn well so far, so I won't refine it too much. Holy Grail?? No. Awesome, forward looking indicator with high win probability, YES.
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Ugly technical action in the cattle. Just plain ugliness. The front month closed lower the December 5th low which doesn't bode well. Bulls should hope for a double bottom bounce. Bears will be pleased to see a close below the intraday low of 80.60, again, made on December 5th. Dollar index has weakened over the past couple days, but this wasn't enough to spur buyers in the cattle futes....troublesome. The economy only has the ability to get worse, and all of the unfortunate people who lost their jobs recently will not be celebrating by going out for steaks.
On the other hand, shorting the Platinum/Gold spread has been making some folks some money. The thing has narrowed by 108 points since January 9th, and that's not too shabby.
Hope you guys are making some money.
On the other hand, shorting the Platinum/Gold spread has been making some folks some money. The thing has narrowed by 108 points since January 9th, and that's not too shabby.
Hope you guys are making some money.