Measuring Trend
- Thread starter kut2k2
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C'mon, a Trendline has a begin point on an X,Y plane and a slope!! It's as quantifiable as it gets! A channel has two such lines [and the slope is the same to boot]..
If you persist, I may no longer class you with "the best and brightest", in fact it might be more like "the ones where you want to talk a little slower and use little words"...
One key thing I'd like to cover is ranking. Assume you have both a trend strength indicator (e.g., ROC) and a trend quality indicator (e.g., TSI). Assuming for the sake of argument that you were satisfied with the measurement performance of both indicators, would you rank them equally or should one type of indicator rank higher than the other? What I'm looking for is an overall performance indicator that will allow ranking of a basket of securities. Thanks.
The trend is not easy to measure because there are trends within trends within trends and the measurement must be done relative to the other trends for this to make any sense.
On top of that sometimes bigger trends dominate smaller trends, sometimes its the opposite.
It's one big randomness, no edge in trend.
FoN
On top of that sometimes bigger trends dominate smaller trends, sometimes its the opposite.
It's one big randomness, no edge in trend.
FoN
The markets are not random, as proven in this thread.
first, what is a trend ?
is it a price move in one direction on a certain time ?
or, second
is it a price move that is repeating itself over and over again,
backtested for over 30 years with over 1000 examples and over hundreds trades in real time with real money ?
or, third
is it the constant average daily or Weekly profit on a traders account?
Price is ruled by the big money, and that big money is in the second example here. That will lead you to number three.....
Number one is worth nothing, because price always move in cycles, dosnt matter if its going up or down on the big picture....
Yes and No.
For me, the markets are 100% random until a trading pattern/situation i know appears. Dosnt matter if i would trade this or not.
When a situation have appeared where i can say that price will move with a 90% in this or that direction, there is still a 10% chance that i am wrong. So thats still 10% randomness.
Beside that, you have to know, when your are wrong, because price can do everything everytime, thats the complicated risk thing in trading. A lot of time, price will fullfill the overall pattern, after it shaked out the traders with their stop on the high and lows.
Its the average price prediction what is the only thing that you can count in trading. Average nothing else.....
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When you ve reached the point, where you know the most important price moving situations or patterns, you can "measure the trend" in the lower time frame cycles, bcuz price have to fullfill the higher time frame pattern.............
Without knowing these patterns of the markets, everything else is just bullshit and will cause dead on your account........
And there are a lot of different price moving situations, a lot....
Sorry, just my kind of view.....
Quote from HATEtheRisk:
first, what is a trend ?
is it a price move in one direction on a certain time ?
or, second
is it a price move that is repeating itself over and over again,
backtested for over 30 years with over 1000 examples and over hundreds trades in real time with real money ?
or, third
is it the constant average daily or Weekly profit on a traders account?
Price is ruled by the big money, and that big money is in the second example here. That will lead you to number three.....
Number one is worth nothing, because price always move in cycles, dosnt matter if its going up or down on the big picture....
Yes and No.
For me, the markets are 100% random until a trading pattern/situation i know appears. Dosnt matter if i would trade this or not.
When a situation have appeared where i can say that price will move with a 90% in this or that direction, there is still a 10% chance that i am wrong. So thats still 10% randomness.
Beside that, you have to know, when your are wrong, because price can do everything everytime, thats the complicated risk thing in trading. A lot of time, price will fullfill the overall pattern, after it shaked out the traders with their stop on the high and lows.
Its the average price prediction what is the only thing that you can count in trading. Average nothing else.....
-----
When you ve reached the point, where you know the most important price moving situations or patterns, you can "measure the trend" in the lower time frame cycles, bcuz price have to fullfill the higher time frame pattern.............
Without knowing these patterns of the markets, everything else is just bullshit and will cause dead on your account........
And there are a lot of different price moving situations, a lot....
Sorry, just my kind of view.....
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