MCD is in big trouble. May not exist in 5 years

MCD should drop below 94.5 by today close. If it does, check out the chart, tt hits one of the main thresholds to go much lower.
 
hajimow said:
I also used "May" in the title of my thread. Although I believe it is very likely. in 1999, AAPL was a miserable stock and if you told anyone that AAPL will be added to DOW in 15 years, you would get a slap on your face. Bre-X Mineral the biggest gold company in the world died in 2 weeks in 1997 !!. I am not comparing MCD to Bre-X Mineral but I am giving you examples of possibilities. MCD can go out of business as Roman empire did.
Fact sheet:
1- Is MCD growing ? No. actually they are shrinking and the plan is to close some branches.
2- Is MCD in trouble? yes for over 18 months
3- How big is the trouble? Very big. They have lost 30% of their business just in Japan and have similar issues in Russia and China. Competition is also growing
4- Is MCD brand appealing? Not anymore and you can find it out by checking branch traffics.
My short term prediction is that in the next 3 business days, MCD will be more volatile and mostly in down trend till they announce the numbers in April 22. I don't see the possibility of dividend increase and even if they do, if the earning does not justify it, it would be meaningless.
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You forgot to ask yourself, is MCD profitable? Instead of 30%, if they lost all 100% of their business in Japan, would they still be profitable? The answer is yes and yes. So I am not sure how you see a profitable business going bankrupt within 5 years. If sales continue to decline, do you think MCD will just give up and quit? They will adapt if they have to, and I know they have been trying to adapt for more than a decade, but its hard to have a real sense of urgency when you are still making Billions in profit each year and your stock is still relatively close to all time highs.
 
PlinytheTrader said:
You forgot to ask yourself, is MCD profitable? Instead of 30%, if they lost all 100% of their business in Japan, would they still be profitable? The answer is yes and yes. So I am not sure how you see a profitable business going bankrupt within 5 years. If sales continue to decline, do you think MCD will just give up and quit? They will adapt if they have to, and I know they have been trying to adapt for more than a decade, but its hard to have a real sense of urgency when you are still making Billions in profit each year and your stock is still relatively close to all time highs.
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I really enjoy ready different comments. I believe the main danger point is when EPS is goes close to or below dividend rate. Now the Q dividend is 0.85. If the EPS goes to 0.85+0.1x 0.85 =0.94 cents per share or lower, that is the alarming point.
 
Do they publish how much of their revenue is from breakfast lunch and dinner? I can recall when they didn't offer breakfast. Now I think it's their best effort.
 
MCD reported the earning before open today. Missed 5 cents (read it 5%) on earning from 1.06 to 1.01. $1.06 was the lower guidance by the analysts. The stocked went down to $94 and then went up just because they claim turnaround is planned. Stock is up because of short squeeze and the fact that everyone was expecting lower numbers by MCD. MCD should start to go lower in the coming days and weeks. Turnaround? what turnaround? what is the plan? everything that they are doing is already tested and does not work. Turnaround now means closing more unprofitable and less traffic stores. It is not a good sign.
 
if the market pushes up underperforming stocks after earnings and also outperforming stocks, there is a fundamental problem with valuations.
 
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