maybe something related to mental

[dbphoenix]

I would expect a trading should be more meaningful than just trade what we see. there might be some more to offer? like better understanding of human being and be a better person by doing more trading???

also I don't think I can put a really big position without much deeper understanding of the price movement mechanism. I can trade like a rabbit, jump from here to there and with proper money management , profit does grow.
But how to reach 20 Million in 10 years to just trade like this? there gonna be a break through, and will it come from psychology change???

www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/16270-if-you-can-draw-straight-line.html#post179217

 

[xelite777]

I would expect a trading should be more meaningful than just trade what we see.

Again and for the last time Pocoyo2014, do you want to make money or do you want to understand why the market moved this way and not that way?

You truly believe that I give a rat's ass why the Yen, Google, coffee futures or the Nikkei moved that way rather than that way, today?

Pfffffffffff...........

If my backtested system triggers a BUY signal on XYZ then I BUY XYZ . If my backtested system sends a short signal on ABC then I short ABC.

That's it.

 

[SIUYA]

to give a market move more meaning.....use the magic eight ball!

Ultimately you will only be able to guess what is causing the changes in supply and demand, and understanding the motivations behind them, especially in the short term is going to be a head banging experience. Unless you have direct access to the order that is currently dominating a market you will not know the motivations for it.

Think of what would normally be a dominant buy order ....
what if it simply comes up against a wall of selling from mulitple parties, or one large seller.
Other times the buyer might find no sellers and has to pay up, or drags short sellers with it, or new buyers with it.
They might be buying based on inflows, or outflows, because they were short, or hedging, or rebalancing, or punting, or their model told them so, or they had an analyst briefing, or his best mate at GS told him to. They are then competing against others who might have the same reasons, different reasons or completely opposite reasons.

If you want meaning for the move - your beliefs are irrelevant.
If you want your PL to have meaning - make money and then donate to charity.

 

[cornix]

I have to disagree, I believe that at least 50% of the time the markets are controlled dealing with Commodities futures. When one considers the number of Open Interest compared to number of shares traded with IBM or other heavy traded stocks. Especially in the Meats, it doesn't take much for a few ranchers to force the market to go in one direction for a few hours and THEY are the fundamentals as they can halt sending their livestock to slaughter. Much of the farms are now corporate controlled, the family farms are dropping like flies. The Indexes can be sent for a shorter amount of time by the bigger brokerages in one direction especially by looking at one hour charts, price will continue to trendlines and stop and reverse. What is normal is markets go up, volume reduces, the Pro's are feeding to the inexperienced and when dropping after an extended move, volume increases cause the Pro's are accumulating as the inexperienced generally are taking losses. I can watch this and over 50% of the time I am correct in my observations. The Futures markets were made for the small farmer in mind as a way to hedge, any time governments come into anything dealing with money, can only expect the rich to get richer and poor to get poorer.

I believe with enough study of the "whys" something happens, the better trader you will become. Market trading by the smaller trader is too often based on emotions, I believe the bigger traders/brokerages are aware at what areas these emotions go extreme and are waiting for the inexperienced to bail and experienced will take the other side. I chat with my staff often on why markets move and what to expect. I often tell people I am waiting for the catching a big boulder(protective stops getting hit or targets) and I know it is going to stop most of the time. But I certainly couldn't say this when I first started in 1978.

Trading is all about reoccurring patterns and much of was based on emotions, but we can test to see if these occurrences will show the stats we require to have a high positive expectation of adding to our trading methods. The more one has an open mind and being less rigid regarding to trading, better chances of letting opportunities becoming a reality. Being rigid is like the Hunt Brothers cornering the Silver market in the 80s and losing millions.

Agree with you on the matter of Ag markets (very scared of them for that reason and try not touch them ).

But concerning global macro driven trends, while fundamental picture is relatively clear on the largest time scale, timing is extremely difficult, cause even the largest players react to their theories of reality and not the reality itself. That's what Soros called "theory of reflexivity".

 

[murray t turtle]

I have to disagree.....

I believe with enough study of the "whys" something happens, the better trader you will become. Market trading by the smaller trader is too often based on emotions, I believe the bigger traders/brokerages are aware at what areas these emotions go extreme and are.....

Trading is all about reoccurring patterns and much of was based on emotions, but we can test to see if these occurrences will show the stats we require to have a high positive expectation of adding to our trading methods. The more one has an open mind and being less rigid regarding to trading, better chances of letting opportunities becoming a reality. Being rigid is like the Hunt Brothers cornering the Silver market in the 80s and losing millions.

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

I agree, mostly except emotional moves are NOT@ all limited to small or even medium investors/traders,brokers/brokerage houses.

a] AS your interesting last line proves that . Bunker + Bro Hunt; were limit up silver traders. That was losses in billions[billions as in bankrupt] for the Hunts + almost bankrupted brokerages that margin loaned them. No disrespect intended for those Texan silver traders Hunts of TX were right for years on the silver Uptrend, but have a selling plan , margin calls are not really a selling plan .

Thanks; mr original poster ,,,you may want to rethink your assumption that you can figure price based on fundamentals ??????? Not fun or profitable unless your name is Jim Rogers

 

[nemesis45]

hi all,
... That generally will accumulate quite some money in 2-3 months.

Then I want my activity in trading be more *meaningful*, which makes me to understand or at least try to seek the reason behind these moves. And I generally will get convinced and started trading on my beliefs. And I will blow away these gains in 1 or 2 bad ideas.

Then I will get back to a mechanical solution, which doesn't care about the market moves. ....... the cycle begins again.

is this so called "trade what you see"? but, how to make my trading activity more meaningful? I mean, all the hours spent, I seem to not be able to give up the curiosity to seek the answers behind these moves.

Curiosity is fine , i trade much the same way. It's hard to keep a $ stop loss in these times, because you dont think along those lines.
Fixed it by keeping an iron hard discipline of not losing more than x on any given day.

 

[Redneck]

but, how to make my trading activity more meaningful?

Trading is about making money – period – trying to find any further meaning is wasted effort

I seem to not be able to give up the curiosity to seek the answers behind these moves.

Price moves up…, because it is being marked up

Price moves down…, because it is being marked down

Between ups and downs.., much shenanigans is played out

The how is obvious…, as is the why...

As to the who – assume it is the boys with the money…, moving price

And the one(s) doing the work for the boys – pulling the shenanigans (the boys ain’t got time for that crap)

Then I want my activity in trading be more *meaningful*,

Do volunteer work / adopt a less fortunate family / become a Big Brother / Big Sister / make a difference in someone else's life.., not related to you

----------------------------------------------------

Attempting to find meaning from the mkt / trading - is like trying to finding compassion from a rock - ain't happening

RN

 

[drcha]

Why don't you set up a test and try to prove to yourself which works best?

First, set some rules.....
1. A rule for what percentage of your capital goes to the "try to see why" trades, and what percentage to the "don't bother with why" trades.
2. A rule for how long you will continue this contest, using the above percentages.

There are different kinds of traders. I don't know why the market does what it does, or why it often does not do what I expect. So I am a "don't bother with why" trader. I frequently find myself buying or selling things that fit my trading rules but feel crazy. (Invariably, the ones that are scariest at the outset turn out to be the most lucrative.) Yes, I very occasionally take a flyer on a "story" but never with much money. However, there are lots of successful traders in the other camp, who adopt a macro view and successfully trade with it.

The poster above who asked you whether you are more interested in making money or in figuring out the "why" of market movements had a good point. There is no reason why you cannot do both. Just make sure your capital is allocated however it needs to be: serious working capital versus play money.

 

[xelite777]

Trading is about making money – period – trying to find any further meaning is wasted effort.

+1