May I say...

[Autodidact]

Like how do you describe a gigantic rip up based on a failed break lower?
And then for that entire move to be sold off overnight when the professionals are in control vs the public?

This is how I would describe it, a broadening formation commmanding the downtrend, and the funny thing is people have the audacity to say technical analysis is worthless.

 

[heavenskrow]

Overnight sell-offs in the U.S. futures are almost always due to Europe, Asia or some key market like Crude Oil because markets are globally connected. Thus, its rare to see strong overnight movements (Up or Down) in the U.S. markets via reasons due exclusively to the U.S. only.

Just remember this, the recent poor performance is due to Asia, Oil and other info. Therefore, one must assume that if there was going to be another sell-off in the overnight trading session...they will need to watch Asia, Europe, Oil (most recent culprits) or at least put some kind'uv of an audio alert on your charts so that if a certain price is hit...the alerts will wake you from your sleep. This will allow you to check to see if it's worthwhile trading or go back to sleep.

Heck, I don't even trade the overnight trading system but my alerts sounded off and awaken me this early morning just as the markets dropped below some key levels I was monitoring. I had set it up to see if Hang Seng HSI futures and Crude Oil CL futures would drop below certain price levels...they both did and I went back to sleep before waking up at my normal time. I do that so that I have some context to the markets before its regular trading session begins.

Seriously, what's the point in holding positions overnight if you don't know how to watch your positions while you sleep via simple audio alerts or alerts that sends messages to your cell phone (your phone rings) ?

I'm not talking about setting alerts to whatever stop price you're using. I'm talking about setting alerts to a warning price that tells you to get out of bed and check your positions before your stop/loss protection is hit. This will allow you time to do some quick analysis and make a decision to exit your trade earlier to minimize the loss or stay with the trade in comparison to waking up to an ugly surprise...the latter most likely will impact you psychologically in a way you don't want.

Simply, if you can't do that than you really shouldn't be holding positions overnight especially if you're talking about several thousand dollars in losses or missed profits. Yet, if you're upset about a few hundred dollars once in awhile in a year...no big deal.

This is 2016...use technology to your advantage and a lot of it is free or you already have access to it but just not using it.

Wrbtrader, I love you man. Your posts -so much knowledge honestly. Thank you.

My style of trading is strictly macro, systematic risk, so when I see Asia weakening and other world indices weakening, I get more confident in my short position. However before the whole Greece debacle and Asian yuan crisis, the U.S. markets were already technically painting a bearish picture. So I started making bearish bets even though my "friends" were making bullish bets and laughed at me shorting biotech.
I have to weave through the U.S. sessions which I believe at the time was distribution and stomach rallies even though the core direction was still down. Then the big moves down took place overnight based on "news".
That's just extremely frustrating as a bear who is short hahaha.

I have slept with alerts on TOS, but for some reason I never hear them even though they go off.

And for example if I am trading ETFs/options vs futures I want a position geared towards the market going lower. However I do not want to take a significant position in those vehicles if I am exposed to overnight risk. But most of the action has taken place overnight recently...
Thus there is no reason for me to have a warning alert based on trading ETFs/options as stops dont mean anything overnight. If I was trading futures, then yes different story but would be almost a 16 hour job.

I attached a few pictures....as you can see in one chart it's essentially chop for U.S. day session then overnight selloff. The other picture is the YM testing very key level of support 5 times and holding, then to selloff for overnight session...

 

[heavenskrow]

This is how I would describe it, a broadening formation commmanding the downtrend, and the funny thing is people have the audacity to say technical analysis is worthless.

View attachment 160681

Why are our charts so different? Your chart is much cleaner in terms of price reaction.
Even changing to the March contract didn't change much, or using linear chart.

I know right, I had to go to uni and listen to lectures from professors who say TA is a joke. But I still believe in TA=] More so then Santa or any other thing society tells me is real.

 

[dartmus]

Why are our charts so different? Your chart is much cleaner in terms of price reaction.
Even changing to the March contract didn't change much, or using linear chart.

I know right, I had to go to uni and listen to lectures from professors who say TA is a joke. But I still believe in TA=] More so then Santa or any other thing society tells me is real.

He's using a symbol that excludes the night session. Look for something like YM.D for the day session.

 

[Autodidact]

You need to determine if big money is following RTH or 24 hour structures, this changes constantly as big players execute from different areas of the world and then of course which structures are commanding price.

On top of this when price annihiliates a structure due to fundamental reasons you must be alert as to what new structire takes charge or if you must wait for a new one to form.

Easier said than done but it's good start to the right path, there is just too much bullshit out there, ignore it, let price be your teacher, learn it's characteristics, turn off CNBC, and careful with Amazon books, most suck ass, like most traders do, no surprise there lol

 

[lawrence-lugar]

You seem to be caught up on who's "in control". Who cares who's in control? You need to detach from that kind of thought process real quick or you're going to get stuck with a belief system that will get the best of you eventually. Your job is to stay detached and profitably trade the ebbs and flows regardless of who or what is causing the movement.

I agree, 'blaming' is generally an amateur trader thing to do. -- I was like that too, to some extent, when I started.

You quickly realize though...that's not the case. I like to kind of think of the market as an Ocean -- and you're just a small boat...with the goal to get from continent-to-continent (be profitable)...and not get lost or wiped out by a wave in the process. or get eatin by sharks or get abducted by aliens in the supernatural Bermuda triangle.

Trading is part art, part science. -- that's the beauty of the market. (sometimes it reacts purely on economic reports, while other times on noise/rumors/etc...or a cross in between)
I hope you all see the light -- and may the force be with you...

There's always Two sides of the market to consider that are constantly battling against each other. -- kind of like a relationship...or a sports match...or a political debate. religion...good and evil. or in movies, the bad guy and good guy.

 

[dartmus]

I used it to tell him where the DOW was going and the levels it would hit. He's an insufferable ass. Barron should create a kiddie room for him to pontificate in with his absurd sockpuppets. Maybe he'd stop clogging up other peoples threads with his sophmoric bullshit.

It's amazing he doesn't have enough faith in himself to believe he could figure out how u were doing it. One thing I guarantee is Surf will never change. If u and I and everyone continue enabling him by responding to his flawed perception this scenario will continue to loop forever.

 

[dartmus]

There's always Two sides of the market to consider that are constantly battling against each other

I like this line of thought. For my own benefit, I will name them. Supply and Demand. I don't think of it this way often enough.

 

[schizo]

Biggest problem in downtrends is that people short when price is making lower lows, and that's precisely when you should be thinking about taking or trailing for profits, you want to short the LOWER HIGHS, short lower lows and you will most likely take it up the ass because the thing would need to go down vertically for you to make money without taking massive heat, and price very rarely does that; it moves in waves. By shorting low not only do you receive much less reward, but you are asking to take massive heat, learn to short high and learn to buy low (in uptrends), but please, no manipulation theories, it makes you look dumb and act dumb. Until you learn the game, stay out of ranges, they are harder for most. Wait for a well defined trend and try the above, no trend, no trades, don't use MAs, use channels (sometimes wedges, other times broadening formations) and remember that price doesnt have to perfectly hold inside of it, due to volatility and stop runs it can sometimes behave erratic and fake out of these formations a lot creating failed breakouts and screwing breakout traders.

This is one of the best advice I've read here on ET. And yet I can't believe it comes from the same person who made the dumb call in that other thread.

To the OP: what @Autodidact wrote is exactly what any good trader does, at least in theory. Above all, follow close attention to the keyword "adept" (or was that "adapt"?).

 

[romik]

Absolutely gigantic shmorc rip up based on nothing for U.S. session Thursday, make me have to cover all my shorts. Then "they" sell it off overnight. THIS IS RIDICULOUS, and I CRY MANIPULATION or a bunch of dumb investors.

Fuck this charade. They pulled off the same exact bullshit May-July 2015 before the huge selloff in August.

WHAT A JOKE.

Of course it's manipulated, just like fashion is, big capital creates trends, small capital follows big capital.