May Heating oil?

TraDaToR

TraDaToR

May-Jun @ 60 and Jun-Jul @ -6???

Take a look at the curve...Really weird. Somebody knows what's happening?

PS: I know about the change in contract caracteristics between april and may. It's not what I am talking about...
 
The curve is just abruptly moving from inverted to contango in the summer. It's normal for heating oïl prices to decrease in spring and then flatten during summer but here it's just too much IMO. Historically there is nothing wrong with value of the spreads, it's just the shape of the curve...If somebody can post it, I can't...

Whatever, I entered Short May/Jun/Jul fut butterfly @ 62...
 
By the way, I don't understand prices in fall too. Prices are supposed to get stronger in fall, independently from the general shape of the curve... flat in inverted market and strongly upward in contango...( I really need to learn the lingo.:p)
 
Do any of you trade rbob or heat outrights? I traded crude for a while but recently started looking into the refined markets. They seem to trend really good. Just curious if anybody is trading these markets, I never really ever see anybody talking about them.
 
The curve looks more normal in the front months now( I should have just tried long Jun/ Short jul instead of the butterfly ), but I still don't understand this summer/fall...Compare it to further years...

 
the future is at a discount.. do you know much about the proportions of time that the curve is backwards? or anything about that?
 
I am not talking about that. I am talking about the fact that the curve is flatter during summer when normally it should be in the end of fall.
 
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