Is numerology part of the objective, programmable automated TA trading system?
Maverick74 and marketsurfer's TopstepTrader Combine (daily trade reports and journal)
- Thread starter TST_Hoag
- Start date
Is numerology part of the objective, programmable automated TA trading system?
It could be part of an objective, programmable automated TA system. Round numbers, for example, tend to get defended following deep trending moves into them from above or below. You could effectively buy or sell counter to the approach near the round number and set stop/target based on research of MAE/MFE around the figure in the instrument you desire to trade. If you find a way to make this work in your favor over N number of trades, give it a go and see how it works over a longer time period.
You can create a profitable trading method this way using all kinds of frameworks - fibs, stochs, MAs, Keltner channels, trend lines/channel lines, previous S/R becomes R/S, anything you want. A framework for choosing setups and trade triggers, combined with trade management rules based on study of MAE/MFE around the framework(s) over thousands of trades is how I developed my trading plan.
Quote from nazzdack:
You traded from ~5am til ~7am according to the report. Are you able to put in "killer days" from 2am until 3pm to "hit the numbers"?
that was 6am thru 8am est, then 9am thru 2pm est
if trading real $$ with no performance mandates, I trade roughly 8am - 2:30pm est or until profitable enough... whichever comes first.
There has actually been some legitimate research done into the perceived attraction of round numbers-- I'll look into to to see if I can dig it up, I forget what the conclusion was. surf
If i recall, some significance was determined via clustering but I don't think it is anything actually tradeable--
http://www.internationalresearchjournaloffinanceandeconomics.com/ISSUES/IRJFE_95_15.pdf
Quote from nazzdack:
1) I believe that report, on page-118, is just for what he's done in the euro-currency futures.
2) He has to do "2 out of 3" for EACH futures market he has traded, i.e. all five listed on the report. :eek:
3) He has to be net-profitable for each of those five markets too in order to get the refund. His account balance is below $50,000. Therefore, he has a loss in atleast one of them.
4) That's my "interpretation" of those rules. I still hope he does the "blaze of glory" to the upside........or downside.
Yep, I overlooked it, the page only reflected the trades for the Euro currency.
Here's the refund criteria:
Deposit will be refunded once all Combine trading days (10 or 20 days) have been completed, if the following requirements have been met:
1. Daily loss limit has not been hit or exceeded
2. Overall Winning Day % of 50 or greater
3. Each product traded has a Trading Average greater than zero ($0)
4. Each product traded has met 2 out of 3 performance requirements, which are as follows:
- Overall Average Win greater than Overall Average Loss
- Overall Average Win Duration greater than Overall Average Loss Duration
- Total Win % of 45 or greater
Ok I see what you're saying. However, it is possible for the backer to lose more than the "bagged profits." Here's an excerpt from the Q&A thread:
Yup. Tying up loose ends. Had two products out of the five that were NOT meeting the performance criteria. Checked one off that list today with ES. So now 4 out 5 are meeting the performance criteria with one to go, the Aussie Dollar. Of course I fully admit it's silly to go for the full house (all five) but that's really the only thing making this fun at this point. LOL.
So here's the catch. I need 21 ticks in the Aussie tomorrow. I kind of put myself in this corner by trading 5 products which I've seen NO one attempt to do yet on the combine. I wasn't trying to make this hard, it's just these are all the products I watch for my macro trades.
My advice to anyone doing the combine is just pick one product. That makes the metrics MUCH easier. My second word of advice...trade oil!
