I disagree. trading, when done correctly, is a science--not a craft. Sure, its an art for some--but these folks 99% of the time are overall losers or barely making minimum wage when all is factored in. On the other hand, folks like Jim Simons who approach the markets as a science rake in the dollars. Just look at the success of HFT and quant shops overall compared to the chart readers and craft makers of the market. The crafters and chart minions have been defeated so many times, I am shocked they are still trying...
Maverick74 and marketsurfer's TopstepTrader Combine (daily trade reports and journal)
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I disagree. trading, when done correctly, is a science--not a craft. Sure, its an art for some--but these folks 99% of the time are overall losers or barely making minimum wage when all is factored in. On the other hand, folks like Jim Simons who approach the markets as a science rake in the dollars. Just look at the success of HFT and quant shops overall compared to the chart readers and craft makers of the market. The crafters and chart minions have been defeated so many times, I am shocked they are still trying...
I disagree with you big time on the first point there. There is a never ending line of suckers reaching young adulthood ready to try their hand at this game. That is why there is a large training industry.
The reason most educators don't post track records is because they don't have them, or they aren't the sort of track record you would take home to meet your parents. If something looks like a turd, smells like a turd...You get the idea.
Please nobody misunderstand that I am directing this at Austin. I'm not. I've stated in the past I paid for his course and found it to be a good value. And no, I'm not a shill.
And really? We are going to go back to the old conspiracy theory of a broker fading its traders?
Only one way? Is it possible there are at least 2 discrete streams, the big bucks algo driven and the talented individual?
I am not going to do the research for you, but how about that enormously successful Japanese chap who trades all day and eats instant noodles? What about that trader for some bank who bought a castle in Germany, who sued the bank for the performance bonuses denied him at the height of the bailouts?
If it can be done and there are no physical barriers, why say otherwise?
That's the trick to fading a trader. They* don't automatically fade everyone, they first study the trading style, and pick the ones who trade liquid instruments with a swing trader style and consistency.
There is another way for them to make extra money (theoretically of course), piggy backing winning traders. Who is to say they can not play 5-10 times more contracts with the Live traders? If they have a consistent live trader with a swing trading style, they can easily back him with more money without his knowledge.
When you are picking a trader, consistency is the key, not winning or losing. You back the winner and fade the loser, but they have to be fairly consistent and also not a scalper, because that eats up commissions and too much slippage...
P.S.: *I am not saying they do, but that's how I would do it...
When I asked, Michael didn't know what piggy backing was, although I did explain it in the question....
The "talented individual" is mostly hearsay or unsubstantiated rumors. When they do exist, its often "inside information" or other edge that simply is unreplicatible. Jack hershy types working alone in their basements and cracking the TA code are myths and creations of overactive imaginations.
No there isn't a never-ending line of people interested in trading. Those days are gone for now, maybe forever. When the real-estate market and banking market and stock market crashed in 2008, it wiped out all that bubble-wealth discretionary income.
The reason volume is so thin now and markets so algo-dominated is a massive exodus of individual traders from all markets... but especially anything stock or stock-index related. Equity markets have been hit hardest from fallout of individual traders by far.
Those who still remain interested in this game are much more cautious, savvy and knowledgable than ever before. So the guys who post a blog, upload a website with something to sell and think the money will start rolling in are soon shaken hard by reality. A vast majority of new "educators" that try to get started now often attract zero customers before they drop off the grid forever.
I purposely avoided working with brand newbies from day one because that is nothing but headaches and misery. I do know for a fact that more than one of the big companies that made their wealth "training" complete newbies to the market are mere shells of what they once were in the bubble days.
As for the broker = fade myth, it's just that. Trying to write software that will buy/sell against every contract of every sim trader all at once would be a logistical nightmare on the execution side. Just plain difference on slippage of order fills in and/or out would be great variance overall.
If someone figured out how to create a profit stream of real money off the paper trades of anyone else, my hat's definitely off to them. They deserve anything that's rewarded for such efforts.
Even if that was indeed the case, how would it affect each individual trader and their own chance for success? None, not one iota. So who has time to be jealous of others in this industry with successful business models?
Our own energy is fixated on improving ourselves every way possible. We have no time for envy of others.
You have data or studies to support your premise, or is this opinion masquerading as fact?
Now I do know one thing, is you haven't put in the work to be able to trade successfully. It is evident in what you have posted. Whether your process is flawed or you are flawed only you know that. Self awareness is very important to progress, are you the problem or your price drivers?
If you want an example of someone who successfully trades using a discretionary approach with audited results...check out Peter Brandt. There are many more. I trade prop in Chicago and I personally know many profitable discretionary traders. Guys that have been in the game for 10+ years and still going strong.
Peter Brandt, the guy who charges $7000 plus for a weekend seminar, ok, whatever you say. Maybe he is one of the very few savants who does well with intuitive or craft TA charts... I don't know for certain-- i AM much more interested in the results of his students.
http://www.elliottwave.com/peter-brandt/default.aspx?code=CG3
Yes, i do agree that there are many prop traders who make a good living, but its due to edges taught to them by the prop shop and access to the capital provided by the firm. I don't believe these folks are "crafters" but rather executors of taught edges. Obviously, this is just my opinion and what my experience has been in the business. surf