Mathematics skills for discretionary trading.

Quote from spike500:

I even went to the bank to ask if the money on my account was real or whether it was an illusion. The answer shocked me: it seemed to be real money.
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I only know that, before sending it to my brokers again, my money stayed in bank account is always real. :confused:
 
Quote from spike500:

I have a problem; can someone help me please.

First I will give some background information:

· I went to University but never finished it.
· My knowledge of maths is very limited.
· Most of the intellectual terms that are use on elitetrader go beyond my knowledge.
· Apparently trend doesn’t exist.
· The markets should be “at random”.

My problem is that I make consistently profits in trading the ES since several years. The profits are small but consistent.
I even went to the bank to ask if the money on my account was real or whether it was an illusion. The answer shocked me: it seemed to be real money.

What’s wrong with me ? I seem to do things that are impossible. Can someone cure me from my disease?

Perhaps this is the answer:
If I have the illusion to see an illusionary trend and I have the illusion to see a “non random” market , then i will use my illusionary knowledge of math to do an illusionary trade. When the trade ends I will probably have the illusion that all this is a illusion, so that it all becomes reality.

Or in other words: only consistently making or losing money can bring the answer to the question.
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Hey spike,

Continue like you are doing. Never start searching for "the Trend" or you will end up on ET's scrap heap like so many other sorrowly afflicted hopeful.

Be good,
nononsense
 
Quote from TSGannGalt:

Actually:

0 + 0 = 0

Is more important. Then it's:

0 - 0 = 0
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I tried the 1's and 0's thing on the variables of the market a while back.

All the combinations and permutations of them gave me 8 possibilities.

Low and behold they all exist and, furthermore they occur in a specific smooth time sequence (barring external market disruptions.)

How nice.

The maths of it answer three impotant questions too. They are:

1. Where are you in the cycle?

2. what is next in the cycle?

3. and how fast is the cycle progressing?

Assigning the 1's and 0's to the three variables was easy.

The trickiest part was discovering that they sequenced. I had to discover the relative importance of the variables first.

Learning that the sequence was a countdown was just a mild surprise.

This occurred at a time when relays and vaccuum tubes were what computers were made of. We used card decks with holes in them to program so the 1's and 0's were always there in piles of punched holes for sweeping up at the end of the day.

Getting to see the variables of the market as one condition or the other is not easily done today because everyone is so lazy from the conveniences available.

Probably only a few people can understand my comments nowadays.
 
Quote from Grob109:

I tried the 1's and 0's thing on the variables of the market a while back.

All the combinations and permutations of them gave me 8 possibilities.

Low and behold they all exist and, furthermore they occur in a specific smooth time sequence (barring external market disruptions.)



How nice.

The maths of it answer three impotant questions too. They are:

1. Where are you in the cycle?

2. what is next in the cycle?

3. and how fast is the cycle progressing?

Assigning the 1's and 0's to the three variables was easy.

The trickiest part was discovering that they sequenced. I had to discover the relative importance of the variables first.

Learning that the sequence was a countdown was just a mild surprise.

...
Getting to see the variables of the market as one condition or the other is not easily done today because everyone is so lazy from the conveniences available.
...
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OK Grob109. I know and recognize ur stuff is one of excellence and I've been trying to fill in the holes that I cannot recognize. I recognize ur means of transference and thus would like to ask a few Q's. Conceptually, I can see the tip of what is on the table and recognize that there is a vastness to some degree. What I lack is recognizing my own weaknesses (ie, deciphering that I am learning things incorrectly). I was educated in electrical engineering and a smidgen of stochastics at the private institution where the Manhattan project took place, so the lingo is still somewhat fresh since I only recently graduated (ie. Laplace transforms, fourier transforms, gating, etc...). You may be glad to know the lab devices from the Manhattan project still sit in the displays of some the lecture rooms. The fallout shelter was and is still kind of scary when I walk thru the halls to the various labs/classes. OT there. One and two, I understand, 3 however appears to be trickier. Can you elaborate? I would presume that 3 is volume related but my limited scope would lead me to believe that this is a derivative item, more volume per unit of time indicates quicker progress. Is this correct? Also you mention disruptions, are these disruptions categorizeable? I don't consider myself to be lazy and would like to get the job done. I am as new as it gets 13 days in the market, and any guidance would be very much appreciated.
 
Quote from TSGannGalt:

Actually:

0 + 0 = 0

Is more important. Then it's:

0 - 0 = 0
More...

Has this become the "bi" thread?

(That's "bi-nary", not "bi-sexual") :D
 
It is interesting how many ways the 0 ' and 1 of binary splits can enter into trading. Leo Goodman is the king of such splits to me in statistics and his ' ' movements and comovements between m dependent series" ( with grunfield) I find the most helpful statistical paper on trading as it generalizes the splits to multivariate and correlated series. I once worked with a consultant who had written some of the seminal papers on turning points, and asked him to develop some statistical methods to predict markets and he chose Logit Regressions as his approach, ( a good book on this is Logit Modeling by alfred demaris in the sage university series). For my sins, I occasionaly play with op amp circuits and find that the myriad combinations of saturated and off there with positive and negative feedbak always inspire me to come up with a good predictive relations, e..g that between oil and gold . profturf
 
I parsed your comments below. Look for ****'s.


Quote from makosgu:

OK . One and two, I understand, 3 however appears to be trickier. Can you elaborate?

*****I think it would be better to back up a little. The 1, 2, and 3 go together to make trading a very smooth money making process. No predicting just monitoring the sequence and differentiating the coming and going of the 8 parts of the cycle.
they are defined by the three variables of the market which I chose because of their importance.

In order of declining importance I picked P, V , and A/D. They are all determined by people. People's views are what runs the market. All activities occur because of disagreements about the entitiy that is traded in the market. An integration of views occurs continually. Finally, it comes down to two groups of people whose views are opposed to each other except for one point of agreement. As you see the maths skills ivolved so far are not very apparent. But reasoning skills have entered the picture. I really can't expect anyone to gleen much from what I suggest at first. It is difficult to examine how to make money anywhere and most people are copy cats in the final analysis. Very few people do anything original anywhere it turns out. So reading me is just a fun thing for now.

I made a chart of four columns to just list all the combinations and permutations. Obviously it is the "counter" of repeated addition that yields multiplication. Relays or bi stable multivibrators of 12AX7 tubes did this each count requiring a micro second.

The chart counts from 7 to 0 in 8 steps. This is what completes a cycle. Think of periodic functions (some math at last). Lay out 360 degrees on the X axis and plot a sine wave. The making money cycle starts at a phase angle of -90 degrees. for money making it is a long trade followed by a short trade.


Here I have to decide an important thing for you. Do I continue or do I let you label each 45 degree increment with the numbers associated with that part of the money making cycle.

I am giving you the gift of creating the relationship. In my life I have created many of them ranging through many many fields of expertese. So I am giving you this moment in your life to step up and get the essence of how the market works. This is the deep and abiding moment when a person discovers the P, V relationship.
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Fantastic Jack!


So I will finally be able to throw that "Trend" crap into the garbage can and start making money. Do I still have to apply MM with this?

Thx again,
nononsense

Quote from Grob109:


"I am giving you the gift of creating the relationship. In my life I have created many of them ranging through many many fields of expertese. So I am giving you this moment in your life to step up and get the essence of how the market works. This is the deep and abiding moment when a person discovers the P, V relationship."
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