Mathematics skills for discretionary trading.

as a new member, I was interested to read the posts about maths skills. I believe the main maths skills is a state of mind that is always ready to count. A good aid in this direction is a template for 2 by 2 tables that can be carried around in one's wallet.( In Victorian England , the great countists liked to keep a pin and index card handy and judge time with the pulse so as not to offend any woman's sensibilities but this is no longer necessary). I have had , am currently , and hope to be in the future associated with many people with maths skills, including my first partner who won the MAA as a high school junior way bak when. I always try to improve mine, by reading such things as books like Ecological Inference by King et al or StaticaL Methods in Pschologoy by David HOWELL, or Practical Time Series by Janicek,( all of which I happen to have on my desk at present and are highly recommended ). The effort to constantly improve, the persistence to count at all times, the humility to know that no matter how much you improve the math, you are still a paloooka compared to the man of wisdom and flexibility, these are the main maths skills required. profturf
 
a query on the math list follows an enumeration of supposedly great traders like livermore and wyckoff and soros, buffett and a few others. I would point out that livermore went bankrupt 3 times and eventually committed suicide broke. Also, similar qualitative details are revealed by study of the writings of Wyckoff, and I have heard from peoople who know that the same is true of Gann. Thus, i dont think that the lack of mathematical training is the cause of success for these ''Legends" . A point on the other side is made about Victor Niederhoffer. Apparently acccording to the poster he had a degree in mathematcs, although I have heard that it was in statistics. And then the point is raised " what happened to him to prove that mathematics didnt help him. I often look at the latest updates on managed account performance and hedge fund performance from the usual sources such as tass, hedgeworld, mar, barcley's. As far as I can tell, victor is not a poster boy for how mathematics sinks . Indeed, for all the funds above 9 figures, I believe that the ratings for his operation, Matador,shows the opposite may be true for all periods given. But perhaps this is overridden by his downfall in 1997 as presumably those who dont use mathematics have never had a bad year like that and the record before and after should not be considered.Sincerely, and checked for accuracy,
Profturf.
 
Quote from John Merchant:

I think that all you need to know is how to recognize when insiders are trying to shake the crowd out of a good position and trade against that. The mathematics of that are pretty simple. On the fingers of two hands, usually.
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"All Warfares are thus based upon Deceptions" --- Sun Tzu
:confused:
 
Quote from TSGannGalt:

All you "need" to know is that 1+1=2.

Anything after that is voluntary.
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I have a problem; can someone help me please.

First I will give some background information:

· I went to University but never finished it.
· My knowledge of maths is very limited.
· Most of the intellectual terms that are use on elitetrader go beyond my knowledge.
· Apparently trend doesn’t exist.
· The markets should be “at random”.

My problem is that I make consistently profits in trading the ES since several years. The profits are small but consistent.
I even went to the bank to ask if the money on my account was real or whether it was an illusion. The answer shocked me: it seemed to be real money.

What’s wrong with me ? I seem to do things that are impossible. Can someone cure me from my disease?

Perhaps this is the answer:
If I have the illusion to see an illusionary trend and I have the illusion to see a “non random” market , then i will use my illusionary knowledge of math to do an illusionary trade. When the trade ends I will probably have the illusion that all this is a illusion, so that it all becomes reality.

Or in other words: only consistently making or losing money can bring the answer to the question.
 
Quote from science_trader:

Who's talking about PhD ? Do you have any personal frustration vs PhD holders ? Personally I don't.

When it comes to all these 'common sense' traders who make money, I have some bad news for them : they have to fall in one of the following categories

1) They manipulate markets : illegal
2) They have access to insider information : illegal
3) They are market makers (and not traders)
4) They are lucky and haven't bankrupted yet
5) They lie about their performance
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no grudge against phds at all. if it wasnt for phds, what would we do when we are ill?

as for your point:
1/Bullshit. Manipulation is not illegal. markets would not exist if they couldnt be manipulated. governments and banks manipulate fx & fixed income EVERY DAY
2/ Bullshit. there is no such thing as insider dealing in derivatives. if it was, they couldnt exist. derivatives markets exist so that commercials can HEDGE on their INSIDER KNOWLEDGE
3/ market makers still speculate, some also trade their own accounts.
4/ maybe, but not all the time
5/ some do - but if they are not honest with themselves and the market, they will get eaten.

come on science. you can do better than this. youve posted some great stuff before. has someone stolen your login???
 
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