Matcha's Dow E-mini Journal

[PatientOperator]

Quote from Matcha:

Took another loss today.
.....
I have seen this type of day over and over. I can’t believe that I still have so much uncertainty while trading today. I am doing so poorly…

Hi Matcha,

If it is of any consolation, I am doing DOUBLE poorly today (& YTD). It was tough finding any good setups during the long consolidation phase after the run-up. Was thinking about using the HYN method to jump onto the moving train earlier in the day.

Same # of trades (4), 25% winrate and again max limit loss -4.5 ES pts. All of my trades were towards the end of day. Could have saved the day a little bit by the LONG trade at 12:46 pst, but I closed the position too early just before the closing bell and the market went up more afterward.

This has to be the worst 3 consecutive days I ever had. I am going to sit out tomorrow - no trading, just watching....

Quote from Matcha:


.....
Trade 2: long. Betting on the late day break out to the outside. Stopped out.

Watch out using the "Betting" word. The Sifu(s) here might get upset that you have resolved to "gambling". Just kidding!

Quote from Matcha:

Yes, They have all different theme in every plaza, store, shopping mall!!

And they keep the xmas decorations and played Jingle bell songs from thanks giving through Chinese new year. Its very amusing! Maybe because we chinese are very frugal?

xmas I will be in TW this time! I miss the night market in TW!

Thank you,PO! Although I haven't met my goal, the best reward this year is to get to know all my ET friends and Sifus!

Yeah, last time I was in HK, it was Christmas time. It was really beautiful. I didn't know they kept the decorations and played Jingle Bell till the Chinese New Year.

I have never been to TW. I heard a lot of nice things there. Tell me all about it.

Same here, I agree with you 101% that the best reward this year is to get to know all of you wonderful ET friends and Sifus!!!!!! I feel better already despite having a real bad week trading. Now, back to more studying....

Have a good day trading tomorrow. It might be a TR day. The TR PA strategies will come in handy!

--po

 

[PatientOperator]

Quote from ~~~:

PO .... in life/trading Not only we need to work hard but we must *Work~Smart* !!!

Luck can only goes so far .... What we get in life is based on our *decision~making* in life ... LOL

Thank you Sis ~~~. I will keep that in mind. Work hard and work smart!

--po

 

[Matcha]

Small gap open and first bar is a long tail doji bar below YTD’s trading range. Then price tried to go back to the TR but failed. I looking for an entry to get in the opening sell of.
After price violated the Pviot point then retrace. I sell at the near top of the retrace on smaller time frame. Price bounced off at the round number 11100 area-also YTD’s opeing small trading range. I didn’t take profit at 11100, I thought it was a reasonable bounce and willing to hold through a 2 leg retrace. And I didn’t move my stop.
After 2 leg retrace( the retrace is very deep). I moved my stop and thinking it could go a bit further if this time price can violate 11100 area. Lots of void area to the left. But buying pressure is accumulating so hard. I had to get out since the bottom tails are getting larger, and bull bars are getting bigger. Trade 1: long , +7tick.

Then bull spike up then make another trading range at the opening level. The day at that point to me is spike up and down then trading range. So I was ready to fade the range. So my trade 2 was a fade a bull trap. But I underestimated the bull strength and didn’t pay too much attention on the buying pressure accumulation base. I got out of my position right away at +1 tick.

Then the day to me is possible spike and channel day. I was looking to buy at the lower channel and after 3-4th push, short at the first H/L when channel was broke then target a few magnetic price area 11334, 11127, 11100(if possible).

Didn’t not get in long at 9:30, buy at lower channel, and wedge bull flag. The down momentum is a bit strong. So I was waiting for a 2nd entry… didn’t get it.

12:35 short H/L. BO PB from wedge top. Got in too early, still in the channel. Mistake 1)Shorted at the lower channel. Mistake 2) leave a bit wider stop since it’s the last half hour until close, don’t want to be whipsawed out of a valid trade. But price didn’t reverse down this time, it shoot up to the close. -8tick

Today PnL:$-8 3 trade

Weekly:
PnL: -$16
# Trades Per Day: 3
Winrate: 47%

Have a great weekend everyone!

 

[jokepie]

Quote from Matcha:

12:35 short H/L. BO PB from wedge top. Got in too early, still in the channel. Mistake 1)Shorted at the lower channel. Mistake 2) leave a bit wider stop since it’s the last half hour until close, don’t want to be whipsawed out of a valid trade. But price didn’t reverse down this time, it shoot up to the close. -8tick

Today PnL:$-8 3 trade

A question and may be a point for you to mind in the future.

Why did you not reverse the last trade. It was quite a strong move up and in the channel that you had drawn earlier ?
I have learned this the hard way that traders usually sit feeling exhausted after a trade is stopped out, when the fact is that they were wrong and the right trend is the other way. So, the logical step should be to instantly reverse the trade and get on the move.

let me know wht you think about this.

 

[Matcha]

Quote from jokepie:

A question and may be a point for you to mind in the future.

Why did you not reverse the last trade. It was quite a strong move up and in the channel that you had drawn earlier ?
I have learned this the hard way that traders usually sit feeling exhausted after a trade is stopped out, when the fact is that they were wrong and the right trend is the other way. So, the logical step should be to instantly reverse the trade and get on the move.

let me know wht you think about this.

I probably would if it's not 15 min into the close!! I thought abou that when price almost took my stop. Then I told myself not to do anything since it's near close. I have lost so much SIM money flip, reenter in last 15 min. Then price just choppy or went crazy. Today, when I didnt reverse, it trended nicely in the last 15 min...

But very great reminder! I just came back from my 15 min workout and was thinking to put that in my starts and trading plan for this particular setup." Be ready to reverse if price formed a D/B, failed BOPB after stopping out". Thank you!

 

[jokepie]

Quote from Matcha:

I probably would if it's not 15 min into the close!! I thought abou that when price almost took my stop. Then I told myself not to do anything since it's near close. I have lost so much SIM money flip, reenter in last 15 min. Then price just choppy or went crazy. Today, when I didnt reverse, it trended nicely in the last 15 min...

But very great reminder! I just came back from my 15 min workout and was thinking to put that in my starts and trading plan for this particular setup." Be ready to reverse if price formed a D/B, failed BOPB after stopping out". Thank you!

DO you/ Hav you used tick charts? they usually help me gauge momentum (Spurts - as I call it) in the trend better than time interval charts.

Having a system is great ! and when you are starting it helps save you from big runaway trades. however, try to scale back and zoom out into a higher time frame and see the trend - might help u stay in a trade longer and play wider stops. (note mid day till close on 15 min.)
In my experience stops have caused me more damage than help. OR just do not rely on STOPs as EXITS. they are sort off Fail/Safes. They should not be synonymous.

"Do you notice that you so well on Nice trending days"
when Futures are not gapping more that 70 points, try fewer trades and on longer time frames.

hope this helps.

Keep it up. you are doing great.

 

[PatientOperator]

Quote from Matcha:



.... I was looking to buy at the lower channel and after 3-4th push, short at the first H/L ...



12:35 short H/L.
...

Hi Matcha,

I like the upward channel that you drew.

Couple of PA questions -

1) At around 11:00 pst, did it look like a H2 LONG setup after a small 2-legged pull back to the lower channel?

2) When you said looking for a short at the first H/L, does H/L mean LOWER HIGH (as in your 3rd trade)?

From your chart, it looked like all of your 3 trades today could have netted you a few small profits that might have added up to your daily goal of 20 YM points.

Even though you had a b/e week, but your number of trades was good (avg 3/day). With some adjustments to your exit strategy you could have turn your PnL around. My week was pretty dismal. I need to give it a bit more thoughts on my stops and exit strategy also.

Have a great weekend everyone!

--po

 

[Matcha]

Market is pretty generous and mellow today except the mid day reversal is too strong to get in long.

7:16 Trade 1 is a bad long, I was out when I didn’t see too much follow through and realized that it was a bad spot to get in. Then I paused for… as far as I can remember only 30 Sec to decide whether I should reverse the trade. But market didn’t wait on my decision , it sold off quickly. – 6 pt.

8:34 Trade 2: short L2. The bull reversal bar that at 8:40 looks a bit strong. Market was entering in a very tight trading range. So I exited here, and willing to wait form more clarity. -9Pt

9:01. Trade 3” short, Another L2 sets up; Wedge Double top Bear flag, market tried 2 attempts to go up and failed at 11110; close to EMA. +52Pts

Today’s PnL: +$177, 3 trades, 33%winrate

 

[Matcha]

Quote from PatientOperator:
1) At around 11:00 pst, did it look like a H2 LONG setup after a small 2-legged pull back to the lower channel?

It is a perfect H2 D/B long set up. I was too conservative since it was a 3rd push up in the channel. ...

2) When you said looking for a short at the first H/L, does H/L mean LOWER HIGH (as in your 3rd trade)?

wrong typing again. sorry, I meant to say Lower high... But it then turend to be a H/L...

 

[PatientOperator]

Quote from Matcha:


7:16 Trade 1 is a bad long, I was out when I didn’t see too much follow through and realized that it was a bad spot to get in. Then I paused for… as far as I can remember only 30 Sec to decide whether I should reverse the trade. But market didn’t wait on my decision , it sold off quickly. – 6 pt.

9:01. Trade 3” short, Another L2 sets up; ..... +52Pts

Today’s PnL: +$177, 3 trades, 33%winrate

Hi Matcha,

Beautiful trade #3. You stayed with the trade through the next pullback and captured the full run of it. 33% winrate and the PnL was excellent. This is a classic example of being able to win big and lose small.

The exit on trade #1 showed that you can make quick decision to stop the trade when it was not in your favor. Something I have yet to be able to master.

Question for your trade #3. How did you count the L2 setup? Did you use the 5 bars preceding the setup/entry bar or did you look at the 2min or 1 min chart?

Quote from Matcha:

It is a perfect H2 D/B long set up. I was too conservative since it was a 3rd push up in the channel. ...

Thanks for your reply on that H2 setup from last weak.

Keep up the good work!

--po