Matcha's Dow E-mini Journal

Quote from Bolimomo:

I don't know where this "10000 hours" figure came from.

Matcha, PO and tlow I think you guys will do all right in the long run. You all are very modest and eager to learn and listen to comments. It will take time but you are on the right track. Some people (like me) will take more than 10k, some geniuses will take less. :) All depends on you. (And how much testosterone you have... LOL :D ) And whether you have people watching over you and helping along the way....

Matcha: keep up the good work. Sim or real. It's really hard day trading YM or ES. Because you have a very tight time window to ride the swings. Swing trading may be easier, especially with 1 contract. Be mindful that... as one broad poster pointed out... the market may have a big down swing soon. I kind of lean towards that thought too. But... I have been wrong for the past months. Not to say it won't happen. Anything can happen in this market. A black swan event can completely take you out. The Devil is always at the gate, pointing a rifle at you... and shoot when you are not watching...
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That 10,000 hours rule was from book "outlier". I now think I might need longer that...

Cocky, i am not. And I really don't want to blowup my account...

I am thinking of swing QQQQ or SPY, only becasue I could risk less to start. But then there is GAP...

I am trying to intra-day swing YM, but seems like really it depends on what type of the day...
 
Quote from Bolimomo:

I don't know where this "10000 hours" figure came from. Maybe the rough measure for most highly skilled professions like pilots and sport stars and golfers and etc..

Matcha, PO and tlow I think you guys will do all right in the long run...
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Boli, thanks for the vote of confidence. Man, I hope it doesn't take 10,000 hours of this, thats a lot of emotion and stress rollercoaster rides.

Have you guys ever thought about how long 10,000 hours actually is? Working every trading day for about 10 hours for about 4 years...thats a lot of practice. Lets see, I started this whole day trading thing about 3 months ago...quick math...thinking thinking...yup, only 45 months more to go. I feel like I never dedicated that much time to anything in my entire life...wait does my marriage count? :) Crap, I've only been married 3 years...Wait, can I use more than 10 hours/day and more than 250 days/year in my calculations?
 
Quote from Bolimomo:

I don't know where this "10000 hours" figure came from. Maybe the rough measure for most highly skilled professions like pilots and sport stars and golfers and etc..

Matcha, PO and tlow I think you guys will do all right in the long run. You all are very modest and eager to learn and listen to comments. It will take time but you are on the right track. Some people (like me) will take more than 10k, some geniuses will take less. :) All depends on you. (And how much testosterone you have... LOL :D ) And whether you have people watching over you and helping along the way.

....

Matcha: keep up the good work. Sim or real. It's really hard day trading YM or ES. Because you have a very tight time window to ride the swings. Swing trading may be easier, especially with 1 contract. Be mindful that... as one broad poster pointed out... the market may have a big down swing soon. I kind of lean towards that thought too. But... I have been wrong for the past months. Not to say it won't happen. Anything can happen in this market. A black swan event can completely take you out. The Devil is always at the gate, pointing a rifle at you... and shoot when you are not watching...
More...

Hi All,

Ha Ha!! If it took sifu >10k hours, I will have a long way to go.

:mad:

Yes, 10,000 hours is approximately equal to 4 years if one spends about 2,500 hours a year, 200+ hours per month. It's like going to professional schools to become a lawyer or a doctor. I guess nothing venture nothing gain.

Good luck and hang in there. We have some great mentors here looking over our shoulders. We might get a break sooner!

Thank you Boli for your encouragement.

--po
 
Ha! The 10,000 hour thing is a hoot. :) I think the real truth behind this that if someone survives 10,000 hrs, they will make it. In 97, I met Joe DiNapoli (a big proponent of Fib's and DMA's) at a futures conference. He had some great stories to tell. He said trading was a 5 / 50 proposition. You needed about 5 years and an ability to tie up (not lose) about $50K to become CP. He seemed like a great guy. I'm sure he was the genuine article, but in general I'm a bit suspect of folks on the lecture circuit. Most of the one's selling were not trading. :( They seemed to prove the rule: "Those who can do; those who can't teach"
The SIFU's and their great students here disprove this rule and show that great mentoring and hard work are a winning combination :D
 
I like a day like today-trending range day(mostly trending), most of the day is somewhat “predictable”. Unlike those nasty range days. I can never recognize whether it is going to be the tight range bound day before it’s too late. Where the range high/low is, When price is going to breakout of the range, etc….

But I still make the mistake that I didn’t wait until the 5 min bar to close to enter.

Market open gapped away from YTD high and away from the up channel from YTD close. First bar was closing bearish. 24 hour chart is making a deep retracement down. So I was looking for playing a failed breakout if the 2nd bar violate support. I didn’t wait until bar close, when the bar showing a full length bearish bar, I entered one tick below the 2nd candle. Then the bar quickly turned into a Doji bar before closing. The 3rd bar was a long bullish candle with bottom tail. It ran my large stop. -16Pts

TRADE A: long. Breakout pullback. The 3rd bullish candle really show a lot of bull strength. This time I was fast enough to react a “breakout pullback trade-failure of the failed beakout.:-P. And thanks to the bullish momentum. Price just goes up and up with no looking back for 10 minutes. Since the bull is so strong, the day could turn into a trending day. So I would like to plan to hold it for longer.

I held this position for almost 1.5hours. I think this is the first time I actually held a position for so long. I sold it when it reached April/25 high and R1 level. 2nd push of the run. +59Pts

Then market made it’s last push then formed a 3 push wedge pattern midday. I am not making any assumption this time, but I am ready to take a breakout pullback either way the price is breaking out from the wedge.

TRADE B: Short. Breakout-pullback. Stopped out by the large green candle. The volatility was too strong before closing, otherwise this trade would work out. Stop out at +6Pts. But I am happy this time I moved my stop to at least a small profit. The volatility isn’t my style at all.

So, 2 nice and easy patterns really worked out today. Breakout pullback from opening and wedge reversal breakout pullback after mid-day.

Now I am going back to trading plan. Highlight and bold one of my rule: Enter 10sec before signal bar close.”

PnL: $237, 3 trades, 67% winrate

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Quote from Matcha:

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I held this position for almost 1.5hours. I think this is the first time I actually held a position for so long. I sold it when it reached April/25 high and R1 level. 2nd push of the run. +59Pts
More...

Hi Matcha,

1.5 hours hold for +59pts. Very impressive!!!!

Definitely trading plan worthy!

--po
 
Not sure when I can really learn to hold a position longer. Learn to ride the major swing intraday. I don’t like to jump in and out trading my brain out any more…Seems like a long way to go to achieve the goal-confidently hold a swing for hours.

My first trade was a long. Price came down to support. Broke the channel was created @ Ytd’s close and today’s open. Then price made a 3 mini push then reverse to the down side. Wasn’t in the trade since I kept thinking how bullish the day is still possibly be….

The last two trades were jumpy.
11:08 Took a short. Failed wedge reversal pattern. The follow through wasn’t great, I was shaked out by the large hammer candle. That hammer candle and the bullish run to the left fooled me to believe the buyers are showing up and the H/S pattern is about to form.
11:25. Took another short. After being stopped out by the hammer candle, the buyers now have no follow through either. Market failed to test the pivot high then formed a bearish candle. So I went back in. But this time I was again fooled by 3 doji candles and the green candle at 11:55 after the Day low was tested. Out for a scratch trade.

Then I decided I need to stop.

All scratched trades.

PnL: $-19, 4 Trades, 50% winrate.
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Matcha,

For the past couple of days it appears you've been changing things up again. Maybe you're suffering from paralysis of over analysis, LOL. You mentioned earlier that Boli's charts looked like "colorful fishnet stockings". Yours on the other hand remind me of a very skimpy string bikini :cool: . Your chart with only two (tan) lines is a bit more revealing than Boli's, but those two MAs seem to support the markets T&A (pun intended) very well. I'm amazed at the respect prices give that 20b ma. I often noticed in the past if you were in a winning trade and prices approached the 20 ma you would bail out, and not let prices test that level. Wednesday prices did approach the 20 ma, and I was amazed that you SOH and rode it out, and in turn was well rewarded.

You now seem to desire to trade a longer time horizon, and allow trades to sit in the market longer. I believe you have a nice trend indicator with your two MAs and if you can learn to respect those levels as much as prices do I think you can achieve your goal.

We never know when prices will trend, or how the day will unfold, but you have "Nice Instincts" and when you settle down and find your fit your confidence will strengthen. :)
 
Market created a climatic run up to close yesterday. This morning market then created another spiky down from open until 7:30. I guess whoever bought the spiky up were selling from the open this morning. Besides, we were at a resistance level and failed to break.

I didn’t enter short on the down move-the stage 1 move. So I was looking into a “ spiky buy” at a stage 2 if the setup qualified.

7:30am . Market tested YTD’s low and the channel of Yesterday. A D/B pattern. Buyers finally came in more aggressively.
7:54 long., 4 bullish bar ran up, one bar retraced, buy at retrace and also the S1 level. I then decided to try set my stop and target and leave my desk, so I don’t micro-manage my trade anymore. My target was -3tick away from daily pivot level which is also a S/R level and also a measured move from the 4 bar run up.

When I came back from coffee run-the coffee run I haven’t had for months, I saw that my stop was hit. My target was missed by 2 tick!!! So the 36 profit tick turned into a 13Pt loss… errr, Maybe I am destined to be glued to my computer…

After the 3 stage run, market turned in to a Trading range move. So all the trades should be scalping strategy…

11:28 long at a higher low. It reached a quick scalp target, then I changed my mind to hold for a breakout since the momentum is strong. But breakout often failed in a trading range… So I was stopped out for 1 tick loss. Turned a 12 tick profit into loss again.

Then I took a short at a mini micro trend sell off. Took a scalp profit at 12 Ticks.

Today’s PnL: -$17.2 3 trades, 33%winrate

Weekly recap:
PnL: $ 134.00
# of trades per day: 3
Winrate: 53%

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