Matcha's Dow E-mini Journal

[Matcha]

Quote from NoDoji:

I've been dealing with this for quite some time now. Significantly limiting profits by choosing what I think are the "best" and "most confirmed" setups. The upside is very few losses. The downside is less profits overall. The additional downside is that if you skip several trades waiting for a "best" setup and then the best setup fails (and the best of the best sometimes fail miserably), you can end up with a losing day despite the fact that a 5-year-old trading your strategy would've come up quite profitable.

I can't believe you are dealing with it... You are too modest. I think you are a super trader!
I actually think for someone who is so exerienced like you. Its not a bad idea to only take "the best" and "most confirmed" setups. So what if it's less profit, you got high win rate. As long as you catch 50% of the whole move! If you want more profit, slowly add more contract... You can't catch all the major moves and setups anyway. And life will be so easy and relaxed. I think I have read someone only trade one instrument and one set up and make a very good living.

But I think you are targeting for more setups. More profits I guess. And you like to trade different setups. Whatever formulas work for you!! You are already a very very profitable Hot Pro trader!

For me, totally different. Got to trust one sep up first.

When you get to where you react to every setup instantly with no second-guessing and no excuses, please let me know how you got there, because I've been conducting an exercise very similar to the one you describe above for months now and STILL haven't broken through this barrier! :eek: [/B]

I will definitely share with you my analysis

 

[Matcha]

Quote from PatientOperator:

Hi Matcha,

First of all, congratulations on your 1st week of profitable LIVE trading! And you did great on keeping the number of trades in check to target the high probability opportunities. Keep it up!

Your analysis is superb! I, too have to reflect on how I can improve on my confidence and not second guess my setup and be robotic about my execution. My problem tend to be after I open a trade, I fiddle with my stops quite often that it ended up shortening a lot of good trades. Looking back at my trades in the last few months, I would have done better should I have been more unemotional and follow my trading rules. Case in point, my trading was everywhere today. Twice, I shorted at 11:18 e.t. 14:47 e.t and I quickly moved my stop to breakeven, missing 2 great short trades. I hesitated after executing the trades and loss confidence on my setup. Wasn't a good trading day for me. I need to work on my weakneses.

Have a great weekend everyone!

--po

I played the long side majority of time today. I especially like the buying activity after fluid emotional sell-off on small time frame.

Trading is so damn hard!!! At least we have found our setup to trade with. Next step is to really trust it and trade with eyes close. Trading is also fascinating, we learn everyday. Eventually, it will pay off. Let today be another lesson to learn...

 

[FreeMarketRider]

Congratulations on a winning week
Anyone who reads your story here can't help but learn from it. I admire your willingness to:

1. Research methods and tirelessly work on your approach.
2. Ask your self hard questions and dig for their answers.
3. Avoid self criticism and self doubt, steering clear of those mental traps.
4. Uptake a lot of good advice and work to integrate it into your trading.

I hope you have a great weekend, for sure you've worked hard this week and earned time off for good behavior (and good results)

 

[PatientOperator]

Quote from Matcha:

I played the long side majority of time today. I especially like the buying activity after fluid emotional sell-off on small time frame.

Trading is so damn hard!!! At least we have found our setup to trade with. Next step is to really trust it and trade with eyes close. Trading is also fascinating, we learn everyday. Eventually, it will pay off. Let today be another lesson to learn...

Hi Matcha,

Yes, you are right that trading is so damn hard yet so fascinating!!!!!

I really like your attitude. Your hardwork will pay off!!!!!

--po

 

[Bolimomo]

Today's YM chart including the VWAP plot and volume profile. Towards mid/late afternoon price reversed to mean... pretty well. Pulled down from VAH and up from VAL towards the VWAP.

 

[Picaso]

Quote from NoDoji:

I've been dealing with this for quite some time now. Significantly limiting profits by choosing what I think are the "best" and "most confirmed" setups. The upside is very few losses. The downside is less profits overall. The additional downside is that if you skip several trades waiting for a "best" setup and then the best setup fails (and the best of the best sometimes fail miserably), you can end up with a losing day despite the fact that a 5-year-old trading your strategy would've come up quite profitable.

Today I skipped a valid signal because Mich sentiment news was due in about 15 minutes and I missed an $840 move from my entry price ($270 of which occurred before the news even hit). I decided to take the next signal, and got $370 of a $430 move from my entry price, a fantastic trade, BUT by picking and choosing because I'm afraid of a specific risk scenario (having to exit just before the news or risk holding through the news), I leave twice as much on the table.



I often wait for extra confirmation before putting on the trade and then either get left with a much smaller profit or get stopped out b/e because so much of the move is already over. Yet another case of less risk limiting losses but severely limiting profits.

When you get to where you react to every setup instantly with no second-guessing and no excuses, please let me know how you got there, because I've been conducting an exercise very similar to the one you describe above for months now and STILL haven't broken through this barrier! :eek:

Nod, while I'm probably not the best person to give you trading advice (if you want to know it all about freezing in the headlights, then I'm the guy you want to talk to, though ), I'd recommend increasing your size - paradoxical as it may seem. Then once, you continue to trade successfully the setups you deem the "best", you will find it way easier to start trading with minimum size the setups you currently have qualms about. You'll still leave some money on the table (by not sizing all trades equally), but you'll have a smoother equity curve - and an increase in profits bigger than your increase in size.

I think you're planning to size up on Robo-Nod instead, but while Robo-Nod will - if your system holds in its actual implementation, which I'm sure it will - have a higher expectancy, I'm positive you, the one and only real Nod, will still have a higher profit factor (which is so insanely high it would have got you burned as a witch not that long ago ). <del>IMHO</del> IMNSHO you'd be better served by gradually sizing up your discretionary trading while implementing Robo-Nod with smaller size (and possibly more markets and timeframes).

(Sorry for the intrusion, Match, keep it up!)

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from Picaso:

(Sorry for the intrusion, Match, keep it up!)

Sending you a PM to keep the intrusion minimal here

 

[perr]

NoDoji Matcha Bolimomo

To you all,

I'm reading and listening to your work daily and enjoy
reading your conversations about the markets. ( YM )

Please keep up the good work. Thanks!

perr

ps I'm one of your fans. The three of you.
Matcha your doing fine.

 

[Went Fishing]

Quote from Matcha:
Maybe I could become CP soon?
First trade is a short,
Then I took a long trade, the stop was a bit wide.
It worked out well at first, then next 10 minutes I was whipsawed by a large bottoming tail again.
It took my stop then went back in favor of my direction.
Quickly re-asset the situation, I re-entered.
TRADE A: finally worked. Long , took profit at the 61.8 retrace where is also a R level. It was a right thing to do. 31Pt.
TRADE B: Buy set up at Pivot Point, a double bottom at 5 min chart. Set my target at the range high,
But I didn’t hold the trade very long because market was very slow

Matcha,
You are indeed a unique individual, Great job. I,m sure you will be (if not already) CP before you know it!

Your first trade, the short: I said in my last post "I always figure something stopped the rally, and if I don't know what it was (YH, 3DH 5o%fib) how do I know the resistance was penetrated"? I believe you found a perfect example of resistance becoming support. That level, 10500 was a major player every day last week! Monday it was resistance Friday it was support. I was happy to see you only took one shot at a short.

Your longs,
Quickly re-asset the situation, I re-entered. Hesitation ? What hesitation! I believe this is an excellent example of being on top of your game. That 10500 level held off two attempts and you saw the reversal coming. It's to bad you were shaken out on the first long (that fine line of stop placement) on the third attempt. Not all trades work, but damn it, I want to be on board for the retrace, you go girl. And the target... What could anyone say, nothing! Picture perfect, I looked at my chart and saw the .618 @ 550 and VWAP @ 548. I think my three bars read 50 48 and 51.

I hate long slow drawn out trades, especially on a Friday afternoon.

Congratulations, profitable LIVE trading, What a thrill!

 

[Matcha]

How foolish I am today. Did not extract anything from market.

First trade was D/B pullback buy at the open. Stopped out at -10Pts loss. Then market came down to Pivot Point, rapidly went back up. I didn’t enter. The 2nd entry-pullback on 2min chart happened very fast too. I didn’t have time to react. Market made its parabolic move up. It moved up 70Pts.

Market retraced back down to YTD’s high at around 9:30PST. I was waiting for a pullback at confluent zone 10616 ( 38.2%Fib, VWAP, S/R etc), then look for a D/B or a W bottom at the zone to enter. But market did not retrace deeper. At 10:15, it formed a bottoming tail, a W bottom. This time I went in. Then market continued to move slowly… I was out too since I thought the momentum isn’t supporting the move….

Then market shoots to the moon….

This is the 2nd time I missed the trend day. The only thing I improved today is only “Think Bullish”.

I will catch some profits up next time…

Today’s PnL: -$30. 2 trades