Matcha's Dow E-mini Journal

[luckylucy]

Quote from Matcha:

Yes. Future commision in tradestation is $2.40 round trip

$ 2.4 round trip??
mine is 4.88 round trip..
And Match, I have the same problems today. i have no idea why i kept trading in a small range. Over-trading and tight stops are killers in days like these.
Most My set ups are traps. I have no idea whether to trade my set ups or let them go.

 

[luckylucy]

Quote from NoDoji:

I finally learned my lesson a while back about days like this and scalped small profits instead of trying to catch anything of significance.

CL was the choppiest/whippiest thing I've seen. My two best trades of the day pretty much transpired in a single 5-min candle before price whipped the other way!

Nod, did you try to take every set up in days like today?
It seems the market offered some set ups which turned to be traps.
I can't help myself overtrading like today, do you have any suggestion?

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from luckylucy:

Nod, did you try to take every set up in days like today?
It seems the market offered some set ups which turned to be traps.
I can't help myself overtrading like today, do you have any suggestion?

I absolutely did not, because the setups I would normally take weren't "clean" if you know what I mean. Either survivable stops would be too wide, or it would look like a trap. I believe there were few solid opportunities today and am happy to have captured 2 1/2 of them :eek:

I used the 1-min chart today to work through the whippiness and get early entries into a few trades.

I'm just about to do my bar-by-bar and find out how I would've done using only the 5-min chart with fixed stops/targets. It's always reassuring to find out how one's standard strategy works on days like this. I definitely didn't trade "standard" today.

And, yes, Lucy, tight stops were account-eaters today unless you got tops/bottoms of moves. That's where the 1-min chart really helped me.

 

[PatientOperator]

Quote from Matcha:

A consolidation boring day. –“Market’s constipation day”. Almost fell asleep at my desk.

...

Not too much fun today… Maybe everyone is waiting for tomorrow’s monthly jobless claim report?

All my stops are pretty tight today.

Hi Matcha,

I concur with you that today was a very boring narrow range day. I don't do good at all in this type of days so I tried to limit my trading and I traded only 3 times ended up the day with the smallest gain ever ----> 50 cents!!!!!

You are right that everyone is waiting for tomorrow's job report or like Boli said the big traders are on vacation.

I got this feeling that this consolidation might lead to a melt-up unless the job report is going to be really weak.

Quote from Matcha:

Thank you! I love Hong Kong. I bet you would like Shanghai if you like HongKong so much!

This trip I will have to be very frugal. Only window shopping... I would spend more time at the coffee shop reading trading material. And I will trade at the openings. It will be nighttime in Hong Kong.
I won't be able to trade when I am in Shanghai.

I will definitely like to go to visit Shanghai some day and all those other wonderful places in China ~~~ and Boli talked about! But, I will have to wait till I become a CP trader

Window shopping is fun too. Oh! You can find bargains in HK even in TST district as long as you don't shop at the Ocean Terminal or places alike.

Please let us know if the internet service is good enough to day (night) trade. My favorite coffee shop in TST is the Pacific Coffee, they have computers for customers to use to check their emails or browse the web. Last time I was there (a few years back), there were not that many wifi hotspots to use for the laptop outside of the hotel. I hope things have changed for the better.

Ah! So much fun to visit the pearl of the orient, makes me want to be there right now!

Great trading tomorrow!

--po

 

[Bolimomo]

Quote from Matcha:


.....
This trip I will have to be very frugal. Only window shopping... I would spend more time at the coffee shop reading trading material. And I will trade at the openings. It will be nighttime in Hong Kong.
I won't be able to trade when I am in Shanghai.
.....

#1. Suggestions for you: The best "coffee shop" location(s) in Hong Kong IMO.

Starbucks, Tsimshatsui, next to the New World Centre along the "Avenue Of The Stars". Go to the second floor balcony. You can be overlooking the Victoria Harbour and study your trading books all day, sipping your capacino. Another Starbucks is in the Ocean Terminal... the far end on the 3/F (I think). Just go to the end. They have window panes around. You can see the west side of Victoria Harbour. A little bit hot in the summer though. Another one is Pacific Coffee Company at the tram's terminal, The Peak (Victoria Peak). They are located on the ground floor, overlooking the postcard-moneyshot of Hong Kong/Kowloon. A bit crowded because of being in a tourist hotspot. But spectacular view.

#2. You know your big sis ~~~ has been avoiding you? You go to Hong Kong, she will be in Shanghai. You go to Shanghai, she will be in Xian. Good luck claiming your nice meal! LOL

#3. Why not trading in Shanghai? No internet access? There are probably plenty of coffee shops in Shanghai that have wifi now. Market opens at 9:30 pm local.

 

[Bolimomo]

Quote from Matcha:

A consolidation boring day. –“Market’s constipation day”. Almost fell asleep at my desk.

Couldn’t find setup on morning session, so no position.
.....

Matcha: I am not sure what kind of setups you were looking for everyday. But here is some food for thought.

Especially in a range-bound kind of market that we are in today. You may want to consider some RTM (Return To Mean) kind of plays. The theory is that price moves are like a dog on a leash. It move way up or way down sometimes. But sooner or later it would move towards a more "reasonable" mean value - like a dog on a leash... can never stray too far. That's the abstract idea. In practice different people have different approaches on how to determine "how far is too far from the mean". The shorter the time-frame (e.g. 1-min), the more zig-zag you will experience (thus risk being wiggled out). The longer the time-frame (e.g. 5-min, 10-min), the more reliable but you will get less trading opportunities.

Here is a simple sample approach. Take a look at the market (I use ES) 5-min today. Overlay with a simple 200MA (red curve). You see in the middle of the night it went to as high as almost 1128 - 3-4 points above 200MA, which was rising (bullish). Suddenly early in the morning 5:00 am or so ES got pushed way down. Probably some report or something released at 8:00 am EDT. There if you take a measurement from the swing high to where price crossed the (rising - bullish) 200MA, and make a Fib projection. Price went down to almost 250% that distance from the crossing. Usually prices overshoot - immediate, knee-jerk reaction to some news/reports. Look to the left for some probable support/resistance zone. Bet on price to "Return To Mean"... i.e. towards the 200MA. Maybe not quite reaching 200MA, but somewhere close. Estimate your potential, then calculate your risk to take the trade.

When price breaks below a rising 200MA (bullish), it's likely to bounce back up. Likewise when price breaks above a falling 200MA (bearish), it's likely to fall back down.

This approach, of course, will fail when the market starts to trend against you. But if it stays in range, it may give you a few good opps.

You stand a reasonable chance if you observe the 3 waves on the down leg in a shorter time-frame, reaching a support/resistance zone, and seeing typical reversal signals (Momentum Divergence, Double Bottom/Top, etc..)

 

[Matcha]

Missed all the stunning move today. Only one trade was taken. Pullback trade

Market open gap down. Then retraced back (double bottom pattern on 24hour chart). 7:00 market formed a toping tail bearish trend bar at PP level- A bearish signal. Then market made it’s higher low and lower low then broke down. I missed the entry, so I had to let it go.

Market was in a bearish tone. $TRIN is trading above 1.8. So I would look for a pullback signal to go short. At 9:00, I took a short position- a double top pullback trade. I held it and wait for the momentum at the LOD, if it’s bearish, then I would hold on to it longer. But price didn’t test the LOD even though it formed a bearish bar at 9;30. then started to consolidate again. –the tight trading range triangle pattern. So I got out, no need to stay in the indecisive trading area, I learned the lesson.

11:30 am-bottoming tail and small break out. I didn’t take a long trade because the trend isn’t strong yet. Market is still in a trading range. But this time. Market quickly break out and shoot straight up to the North. I had to again watch it leave without me.

Today’s PnL: +$27, 1 trade

Weekly PnL: $-1.4
Avg trades per day: 3
Winrate:44%

Have a great weekend!

 

[Matcha]

Quote from PatientOperator:

Hi Matcha,

I concur with you that today was a very boring narrow range day. I don't do good at all in this type of days so I tried to limit my trading and I traded only 3 times ended up the day with the smallest gain ever ----> 50 cents!!!!!

You are right that everyone is waiting for tomorrow's job report or like Boli said the big traders are on vacation.

I got this feeling that this consolidation might lead to a melt-up unless the job report is going to be really weak.




I will definitely like to go to visit Shanghai some day and all those other wonderful places in China ~~~ and Boli talked about! But, I will have to wait till I become a CP trader

Window shopping is fun too. Oh! You can find bargains in HK even in TST district as long as you don't shop at the Ocean Terminal or places alike.

Please let us know if the internet service is good enough to day (night) trade. My favorite coffee shop in TST is the Pacific Coffee, they have computers for customers to use to check their emails or browse the web. Last time I was there (a few years back), there were not that many wifi hotspots to use for the laptop outside of the hotel. I hope things have changed for the better.

Ah! So much fun to visit the pearl of the orient, makes me want to be there right now!

Great trading tomorrow!

--po

PO:
As long as you are break even, follow with your plan. You are doing a very good job!

I miss Shanghai a lot. I think I would prbably get lost there since it changes so fast every year!

Let's support each other and work hard to be CP soon. So we can all be in Asia celebrate and party!

I do like local small boutiques on Grandville Road and Causway bay. I will go to Mongkok-tennis shoes street to hunt some limited edition shoes. I have internet access in hotel. But I like to go to coffee shop reading and people watching.;-P

I will let you know the internet speed, I have never tried to take my laptop in pacific cafe.

Not sure if exactly next, or near to the pacific cafe in TST, there is a "Norht Point Eggette" Booth. The Eggette( egg puff) is the best in town! It's worth the wait!

 

[Picaso]

Matcha,

First, nicely done, it's days like these that kill new traders (even if in hindsight it all seems so easy).

When reviewing the trading day, it would probably help you to do it, either in a Market Replay simulator (real-time or accelerated) or like your big sister NoDoji: bar by bar (covering the chart and uncovering one bar at a time).

If you simply go back and say "Oh, it went down a lot here, it would have been a great long/short", you will literally go crazy, preposterously overestimate the amount of money you should be pulling out of the markets and seriously underestimate your progress.

Only some of these huge moves will be "predictable" or tradable by your system; out of these moves many times, as per your system, you will only capture a portion of the move - that's ok.

When reviewing your trading, focus on what, based on your system/methodology/etc., you should have done (and find out why you didn't so you can correct that) and forget about what you could have done if only you had the power of hindsight, psychic abilities and a million dollar account.

Shanghai rocks, hope you have a great time.

 

[Matcha]

Quote from Bolimomo:

#1. Suggestions for you: The best "coffee shop" location(s) in Hong Kong IMO.

Starbucks, Tsimshatsui, next to the New World Centre along the "Avenue Of The Stars". Go to the second floor balcony. You can be overlooking the Victoria Harbour and study your trading books all day, sipping your capacino. Another Starbucks is in the Ocean Terminal... the far end on the 3/F (I think). Just go to the end. They have window panes around. You can see the west side of Victoria Harbour. A little bit hot in the summer though. Another one is Pacific Coffee Company at the tram's terminal, The Peak (Victoria Peak). They are located on the ground floor, overlooking the postcard-moneyshot of Hong Kong/Kowloon. A bit crowded because of being in a tourist hotspot. But spectacular view.

#2. You know your big sis ~~~ has been avoiding you? You go to Hong Kong, she will be in Shanghai. You go to Shanghai, she will be in Xian. Good luck claiming your nice meal! LOL

#3. Why not trading in Shanghai? No internet access? There are probably plenty of coffee shops in Shanghai that have wifi now. Market opens at 9:30 pm local.

Wow! Thanks! I will definitely check them out! I have been to the SB Ocean Terminal one, always lots of people! Is there WIFI access in Starbucks Hong Kong too?

I don't have much to do in HongKong. To stop me from exploding my credit card, I better spend time reading trading books and eating street food.

Really wish ~~~ is there, we can at least go to afternoon tea like local HongKong ladies in Harbor City TST.

Hmmm, I am booked in Shanghai, so no trade. haha.

Do you know if tradestation offer the asia future index to trade. Hangseng or shanghai. Then I can play with it. Or maybe I will trade JPY/USD in daytime if I am bored in Hong Kong...