Matcha's Dow E-mini Journal
- Thread starter Matcha
- Start date
Of course you are right dst888.
I was just ranting. There are many engineers, lawyers, doctors, etc. - past or current - who are successful traders dispite the stereotype.I just felt that sometimes I was too much of an indecisive trader having to satisfy the engineer's inquisitive mind to know "why".
Quote from Matcha:
hehe, sis
I wouldn't mind to put the snobbish outfit on!
Oh, I don't like working out at all. Now I just started to go to the gym. Metabolism is slowing down. haha
Good for you! I have darker skin tone. Everytime I am in Hong Kong and China, I feel really weird. All the girls there are so tiny and pale...
Fashion Queen Matcha, you're the California Sunshine type of gal..
'Sun-Tan" & "Hot".. we can feel your 'Super-Heat' here!
the americans will go "ga~ga~" over gal like you. i have crystal clear porcelain fair skin but i am not tiny or pale. ( i might be taller or as tall as u, sweetie! )..i can eat all i want and i don't have to worry about my weight because i love to swim and do yoga
honey..you feel weird when you are in Hong Kong or China maybe because you're very "american" in many ways already ...
Just wanted to share my view on this. I'm an engineer and I believe I have found trading difficult because of it, although not the reason quoted. Personally I have no problem accepting a trade may or may not work out, my problem has been my need to be clever. I have many times passed on a trade because it was too obvious, easy, and unchallenging.
Spent years focusing on algos with no success, had to force myself with much fighting to to stick to the ridiculously simple, profitable stuff. Anyone else had similar?
Quote from Matcha:
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Market overnight reaction: broke up the consolidation zone, then sold off. When market opened up it retraced back up 50%, then sold off. I took a quick short position, 6:40 bar, the extra long body. It worked well in the first 50 second, then it was hit by the next long green body bar. By the time, I realized market formed a double bottom pattern, trend is turning to the upside, price has run up 50 Points. Then I waited for a second leg pull back to enter. It was Trade A.
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Matcha:
Just want to provide my view on Friday's movement. Near the opening.
You said a big "gap" down. You thought it was breaking down further. At 6:40... so you shorted.
I think this was a very low-odd play for short. Because:
#1) Typically the ES/YM markets do not continue to run in the gap's direction. This is an important note. More often than not: they do not continue to gap-and-go. Doing a "gap-and-go" bet would have, let me suggest, only 20%-30% chance of being right.
#2) You need to take a look at the longer time-frame (always). Note the recent bullishness of the market. It had already reversed from the Double Top high on Thursday. This morning's gap down happened around the 38% retracement mark. (Anything less than 38% is still quite bullish). It's unlikely that it would gap down and still forge a big down move. You were tricked by a down head fake.
#3) Note that price has already gone through what I call a "1 zig" - which was Thursday's low back to high move... and the overnight gap. So... should be cautious in going short after the morning down-gap. Enclosed is my chart on DIA (proxy of YM).
Thank you Boli. Great idea to go with the flow in trend trading!
Ha Ha
What an epiphany!!!!! Now, I know why it is so hard for me to become a CP trader for being an engineer by training...... Got to listen to Matcha that there are no "certainties", only "high probabilites" in trading. Thank you Matcha, you are so smart!
Now Boli, I feel better that there is hope for me.
You all are great! This is the best lesson I've learned for the weekend. After spending extra time to "analyze" my charts for the week, I need to shed this "inquisitive" and "indecisive" mind set and just follow the rules that are necessary for High Probability trading without hesitation.
--po
Thanks Boli. I think I am going to keep the 2.5 points initial stop for ES trading and adjust it accordingly after the trade is set in motion. Also, I will wait for that pullback (reaching the end of the rip) so that I can set a tighter stop using the immediate prior low for going long. I think Matcha is doing something similar and practices a tight stop. She is more diligent than I am and don't seem to normally chase the market too far away from the optimal buy/sell point.
I think I need to do a bit more work on this. But this is an important element to preserve my trading capital.
--po