Matcha's Dow E-mini Journal

Quote from Bolimomo:

Great title! Would you write me a "Forward" for this book? :)


Good thing you practice. Soak up more drills. Come up with some reasons to trade. Jot them down. Look at the result. Then evaluate your original assumptions. You have more than 9 lives in a simulator.


I did want to cry out early on... at 0645 wouldn't you believe... We are stuck in this mushy mud again! For the most part of the morning, 30 dow point range! (S&P 3 points!)

the title was PO's idea!!

I am thinking of a book related trading to Art and Fashion! But I write poorly. Maybe you can be my editor! :p

Just curious, are you also trading in tight range? or you just sit tight
 
Quote from Bolimomo:

This is my view. I stated it before (not sure whether it was in this thread). And let me re-iterate it:

There are 3 "levels" of trading, if you will:

Level 1: Beginners... trade WITH the trend. Identify a good trend. Buy on the dip (uptrend) and sell on the rally (downtrend). Dip and rally usually is about 20MA. This is good for almost all time-frames. But don't get in a trend too late. (e.g. dipping 3 times... getting old)

Level 2: Intermediate... All the above plus: Fade a trend that is getting extended. This is a highly risky move because you are going against the herd. Getting in too early will cause big losses. But getting in right, it can be lucrative.

Level 3: Advanced... All the above plus: Trade the range-bound markets where it is trendless. Profit small but often but have discipline to get out. This is like picking up quarters on a highway. You gotta do it fast but be aware of being run over.

You stated these 3 levels in this thread before

Although I am only trading level 1, Level 2 and 3 are equally important too....In order to find and take level 1 trade(buy dip, sell rally within the trend) with high probabilities. I got to be able to identify reversal(leve 2), identify trend or range bound(level 3). Those are challenging to me lately ...
 
Quote from PatientOperator:

Hi Matcha,

Indeed today was a really "Garbage" day for me too. It was choppy and stuck in a narrow range in the first 3/4 of the session. An environment suitable for advanced trader, not me. Then when the market broke to the downside, I did take advantage of it to a certain extent but when it started to reverse at 1520 ET, I continue to hang up on the short side and got really "bruised" given up all the profits plus more. When I was down, I kept chasing - lost 4 trades in a row.

I really need to work on my discipline to not try to make hastily trades when I am down. That's my weakest link.

My PnL was worse than yours. WinRate at only 38%. Traded 13 times, way too many especially at the last half hour. I need to limit my trades the way you do to reserve my "bullets" for better and clearer setups. May be I should have kept 9 lives and traded only 9 times today...

Thanks a lot for all your constructive input and many thanks too to Boli for his excellent trading strategies.

--po
I hope you traded in SIM?

I think your last "could have been a good trade" failed due to lots of exhaustion from trading range bound. You weren't thinking clearly when you hold to it untill it turned to a loss. I have same problem too... And when it turned to a loss(from winning), it became more contagious. The emotion and loss were carried to follow up trades. over and over again...

I do this all the time... We are all human, it's hard not to repeat this habbit I guess... That;s why we all need a limit loss per day...And we have to do our best abandon this habbit so we can have enough capital to stay play...

Even though this kind of bad day happened, remember not to carry the emotion to next trading day... focus on individual trade.

You are not alone, dont feel too bad. Besides, we can always remind each other not to take bad trades. It's easier to complete the mission when we have so much support from everyone here.
 
Quote from Matcha:

Market prep: Market overnight made more than 4 pushes up. Jobless claim data improved, Exron earning was solid. Open gapped up more than 60Pts. everything seemed to be bullish. But it will be silly to continue to go long at the opening because market moved so much. So I waited for a breakout pullback trade. I also see the gap open broke the consolidation pattern from yesterday and the day before, so I anticipated the break out pull back trade to be on the long side.

Market only went up for 15 min after opening, and then started to sell off. I waited and waited, counting the wave on 1 min chart. Then at 7:50Pst, a great double bottom pattern formed, and it could be a great entry for breakout pullback. But pattern failed before I was ready to get in. Market started to continue to sell-off. I continue to think I need to go long, go long. But market collapse, so I missed the whole move.
.....

Borrowing ~~~'s voice: "Oh, sweetie..."

This early morning was not good to hope for a big bull move. Take a look at the market (ES/YM) for the past 3 sessions. Remember that we had a big sell off on Tuesday. This early morning's move only pushed prices right up to the "Supply Zones". (3 yellow lines) Thus a pointy reversal triggered another sell off today. (blue circle)



Boli's advice:

Don't pay attention to the "good" report this, "good" report that. Market Participants have minds of their own. Focus on the charts. Just note that there is a this-and-this report out at what date/time. Don't pay attention to the content of the report. (I have not cared to read any "news" for over 10 years.) Let the charts, price actions guide you to trade.

You need to put into consideration the "bigger" picture. To day trade, the one-step bigger picture is obviously price movements in the past 4-5 sessions.

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Quote from Matcha:


I found that I have some problems trading at the opening; I had a lot of uncertainties. Probably because I just started to pay attention to opening trades. I feel like it’s hard for me to find the direction of the market at the opening. Like today, I kept thinking of going long while market is collapse. Not that I am doing a great job at the late session, but I have a little bit more confidence.

Trading the opening is the "Quick and the Dead". It takes lots of experiences. And certainly price movements from prior sessions into considerations.
 

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Quote from Matcha:

the title was PO's idea!!
.....
Just curious, are you also trading in tight range? or you just sit tight

Oh. Thank you PO.


Do I trade in tight range? Well... "Sweetie" ;)... trading is the only source of my income. I need to trade in all environments. :D But trading the opening and the chaotic markets are my favorites.
 
Quote from Bolimomo:

Oh. Thank you PO.


Do I trade in tight range? Well... "Sweetie" ;)... trading is the only source of my income. I need to trade in all environments. :D But trading the opening and the chaotic markets are my favorites.

So, "Oh, Sifu..." :-P
Do you also play premarket?
 
Quote from Bolimomo:

Borrowing ~~~'s voice: "Oh, sweetie..."

.........
Trading the opening is the "Quick and the Dead". It takes lots of experiences. And certainly price movements from prior sessions into considerations.

Prior session you mean, overnight, premarket, 3-5 days all together?
 
Quote from Bolimomo:

Borrowing ~~~'s voice: "Oh, sweetie..."


Oooh Boli ... i'd loved to hear how you imitate my "Sweet" voice:D
it would be Hilarious lol :D :D :D
 
Quote from Matcha:

Market prep: Market overnight made more than 4 pushes up. Jobless claim data improved, Exron earning was solid. Open gapped up more than 60Pts. everything seemed to be bullish. But it will be silly to continue to go long at the opening because market moved so much. So I waited for a breakout pullback trade. I also see the gap open broke the consolidation pattern from yesterday and the day before, so I anticipated the break out pull back trade to be on the long side.

Market only went up for 15 min after opening, and then started to sell off. I waited and waited, counting the wave on 1 min chart. Then at 7:50Pst, a great double bottom pattern formed, and it could be a great entry for breakout pullback. But pattern failed before I was ready to get in. Market started to continue to sell-off. I continue to think I need to go long, go long. But market collapse, so I missed the whole move.

Your market prep and opening observations included two useful price action concepts: "Market overnight made more than 4 pushes up" and "Market only went up for 15 min after opening, and then started to sell off".

Everything else you stated is either irrelevant (news), or bias on your part that will keep you from extracting the easy money from the market ("seemed to be bullish", "anticipated the breakout pull back trade to be on the long side", "great double bottom pattern formed", "I continue to think I need to go long").

Let's ignore all the news and simply look at what the price action leading into the open tells us:

"The market overnight made more than 4 pushes up."

Tells us this trend may be getting tired. Let's watch for a sign of further strength (trend continuation) or a sign of weakness (trend reversal).

Market opens and soon leaves a potential reversal signal (a strong 5-min bull bar that has retraced most of its move by the time it closes). At this point, a sign of trend continuation would be a strong bull bar that engulfs this weak bar and closes at a higher price, OR a pullback that establishes support at a higher low than the previous support zone.

"Market only went up for 15 min after opening, then started to sell off."

Tells us that instead of signs of further strength, price breaks down previous support altogether and tells us quite clearly that a potential trend reversal is in play.

As a price action trader, what do you do? You can put on a short position immediately upon the break of previous support, you can put on a short position when price breaks the base of the first or second "double bottom" patterns (the second of which you circled on your chart). Second lower highs generally produce the strongest moves and today was no exception as you can see from the breakout of your circled consolidation range. A break out of consolidation most often goes in the direction of the move that preceded it.

You write: "Wanted to go long, pattern failed" That's your bias preventing you from profiting on what's happening before your very eyes. What if instead of wanting to go long, you simply went whatever direction price went - long if it broke out to the upside, and short if it broke out to the down side?


Quote from Bolimomo:

Boli's advice:

Don't pay attention to the "good" report this, "good" report that. Market Participants have minds of their own. Focus on the charts. Just note that there is a this-and-this report out at what date/time. Don't pay attention to the content of the report. (I have not cared to read any "news" for over 10 years.) Let the charts, price actions guide you to trade.

This is some of the best advice you can get. Once you reach the point that you can truly do this, you are nearing the highest level of trading.

Don't be discouraged if it takes a while to get there. Over 7000 hours later, I'm still very, very far from it.

In fact, I handled the open in CL just as you handled YM today, as you can see from this post I made earlier:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2910334#post2910334

So after (like you) watching an amazing move transpire without me, I placed a buy stop in CL at the high of the day after price had already moved up nearly 2.00 from the opening pivot low (seems unthinkable), and also placed a sell stop 1 tick below the consolidation range low (just in case there was a reversal instead of continuation). By doing this, I proved that I no longer had any bias. Instead I had made the decision to allow price itself to go wherever it wanted to go and to TAKE ME ALONG WITH IT IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
 
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