Matcha's Dow E-mini Journal
- Thread starter Matcha
- Start date
Boli has taught us how to analyze a market like yesterday. With all the facts, I wish we can avoid a day like yesterday or play some fade the move trades.
Today is pretty easy to tell it is probably a range day, although it did break out in late session....
I tried to trade the tight range, my strategy wasn't working very well.
I couldnt wake up early either to do a detailed prep work.(look at news, look at overnight reactions) So I often missed the opening trades, or too late to get in...
Great title! Would you write me a "Forward" for this book?
Good thing you practice. Soak up more drills. Come up with some reasons to trade. Jot them down. Look at the result. Then evaluate your original assumptions. You have more than 9 lives in a simulator.
I did want to cry out early on... at 0645 wouldn't you believe... We are stuck in this mushy mud again! For the most part of the morning, 30 dow point range! (S&P 3 points!)
This is my view. I stated it before (not sure whether it was in this thread). And let me re-iterate it:
There are 3 "levels" of trading, if you will:
Level 1: Beginners... trade WITH the trend. Identify a good trend. Buy on the dip (uptrend) and sell on the rally (downtrend). Dip and rally usually is about 20MA. This is good for almost all time-frames. But don't get in a trend too late. (e.g. dipping 3 times... getting old)
Level 2: Intermediate... All the above plus: Fade a trend that is getting extended. This is a highly risky move because you are going against the herd. Getting in too early will cause big losses. But getting in right, it can be lucrative.
Level 3: Advanced... All the above plus: Trade the range-bound markets where it is trendless. Profit small but often but have discipline to get out. This is like picking up quarters on a highway. You gotta do it fast but be aware of being run over.
Hi Boli,
Thank you very much for the insight about using the momentum indicators in both range bound and trending markets. I shall use them accordingly.
I will also take note on the seasonal factor and how to trade the breakouts.
--po
Hi Matcha,
Indeed today was a really "Garbage" day for me too. It was choppy and stuck in a narrow range in the first 3/4 of the session. An environment suitable for advanced trader, not me. Then when the market broke to the downside, I did take advantage of it to a certain extent but when it started to reverse at 1520 ET, I continue to hang up on the short side and got really "bruised" given up all the profits plus more. When I was down, I kept chasing - lost 4 trades in a row.
I really need to work on my discipline to not try to make hastily trades when I am down. That's my weakest link.
My PnL was worse than yours. WinRate at only 38%. Traded 13 times, way too many especially at the last half hour. I need to limit my trades the way you do to reserve my "bullets" for better and clearer setups. May be I should have kept 9 lives and traded only 9 times today...
Thanks a lot for all your constructive input and many thanks too to Boli for his excellent trading strategies.
--po
Thanks Boli,
I got it... No wonder I did poorly when the market is trendless and range bound.
For now, I will keep my bullets for mainly Level 1 and some Level 2 trades. And take a nap in Level 3 situations rather than trying to pick quarters on the highway.
--po
Market prep: Market overnight made more than 4 pushes up. Jobless claim data improved, Exron earning was solid. Open gapped up more than 60Pts. everything seemed to be bullish. But it will be silly to continue to go long at the opening because market moved so much. So I waited for a breakout pullback trade. I also see the gap open broke the consolidation pattern from yesterday and the day before, so I anticipated the break out pull back trade to be on the long side.
Market only went up for 15 min after opening, and then started to sell off. I waited and waited, counting the wave on 1 min chart. Then at 7:50Pst, a great double bottom pattern formed, and it could be a great entry for breakout pullback. But pattern failed before I was ready to get in. Market started to continue to sell-off. I continue to think I need to go long, go long. But market collapse, so I missed the whole move.
Before I left the day, at11:25, I took one long trade.
Trade A: Market is making a 3rd push up. The retrace of the 2nd move is about 38%, so the up momentum is still strong. At this point, market is making itâs âselloff at the opening then retrace back in the mid dayâ type of day. Just like the price action in 7/15. In a larger time frame chart, its still in a consolidation stage. So I entered a pullback long trade with some confidence. Stopped out once, the second time it worked. I took profit at the 3 wave.
Stopped out trade: -8Pts loss
Trade A: 33Pts
I found that I have some problems trading at the opening; I had a lot of uncertainties. Probably because I just started to pay attention to opening trades. I feel like itâs hard for me to find the direction of the market at the opening. Like today, I kept thinking of going long while market is collapse. Not that I am doing a great job at the late session, but I have a little bit more confidence.
Todayâs PnL: +$120 2 trades, 50% winrate
Market only went up for 15 min after opening, and then started to sell off. I waited and waited, counting the wave on 1 min chart. Then at 7:50Pst, a great double bottom pattern formed, and it could be a great entry for breakout pullback. But pattern failed before I was ready to get in. Market started to continue to sell-off. I continue to think I need to go long, go long. But market collapse, so I missed the whole move.
Before I left the day, at11:25, I took one long trade.
Trade A: Market is making a 3rd push up. The retrace of the 2nd move is about 38%, so the up momentum is still strong. At this point, market is making itâs âselloff at the opening then retrace back in the mid dayâ type of day. Just like the price action in 7/15. In a larger time frame chart, its still in a consolidation stage. So I entered a pullback long trade with some confidence. Stopped out once, the second time it worked. I took profit at the 3 wave.
Stopped out trade: -8Pts loss
Trade A: 33Pts
I found that I have some problems trading at the opening; I had a lot of uncertainties. Probably because I just started to pay attention to opening trades. I feel like itâs hard for me to find the direction of the market at the opening. Like today, I kept thinking of going long while market is collapse. Not that I am doing a great job at the late session, but I have a little bit more confidence.
Todayâs PnL: +$120 2 trades, 50% winrate