Matcha's Dow E-mini Journal

[~~~]

Quote from Matcha:



I don’t like today. A big negative day…

........................

I don’t know what I am doing anymore…

Matcha,

"The Key to growth is the introduction of higher dimensions of
consciousness into our awareness." from Lao Tze~Dao De Jing.

sweetie..you must learn to control your emotions and be calm always no matter what happen.:eek:

you have your sifu, Boli, PO, NoDoji, Picaso etc,etc all nice people and good day traders to help you. You will be Okay! Cheer up!

i gotta go away for a while to fulfill my other mission ...
so take care and good luck!

 

[Matcha]

Quote from Matcha:

Hi, Sifu! You are super!

It's very clear to me now. Today's chart has similarity with 7/13's chart. The over night reaction is bullish. market open gaped up . then making it's second stage move. second impulse move. The third move will mostly like failed. Then do a FIB level and FIB extension to ge the 100% or 113% measured move.

TRIN trade bullish all day long.

The difference is 7/13 the pullback is more fluid, so it has more room to go up.

Today when price finished it's 2nd stage move, and 3rd exhaustion move. it then spent most of the day just range bound.-bear flag.

My mistakes today is keep thinking price is going to break out. You have pointed out that on 7/13. But today I didn't remember it at all!!!:eek: That's why hold position at 3rd move today to "hope it's going to the moon" is not working. Buying the breakout for sure is even a worse idea. I should have taken profits quickly on my first and 2nd trade. Then buy at the pull backs. At least I would have had a breakeven day!


Now it makes sense that why Nodoji defined today is the classic "midday mush" day.

I need to start to pay more attention to premarket and overnight move....

7.13 chart with FIB

 

[Bolimomo]

Quote from Matcha:


.....
Now it makes sense that why Nodoji defined today is the classic "midday mush" day.

I need to start to pay more attention to premarket and overnight move....

I gotta make one more remark on today's move. We knew it was a very bullish day, with TRIN = 0.6 and all. I also noticed that ES had made several attempts to break high (but failed). 2 in the early morning, around 8:00 am and 9:00 am. Then it was stuck in a tight range. After the doldrums was over, It had made another attempt at 11:30 am and failed. One more time (fourth time now) at around 12:15 pm. I knew that if this time it doesn't break clean, it will reverse somewhat. Because the bulls were frustrated. Many will want to hold on to the profits from the early morning before the day is over.

Not much drop at 12:30 pm. I knew some of these robots are going to engineer a "sell off". They probably position themselves with massive shorts on the liquid caps like AAPL, GS, AMZN, GOOG, BIDU, etc.. which follow the market closely tick-for-tick. Then they would sell, sell, sell on the S&P futures (futures are easier to manipulate, with high margin, high liquidity, fast movements). Then the landslide started. S&P dropped fluidly for 5-7 points starting at 12:35 pm. Then these robots will buy back all the stocks.

I was pretty sure this was a fake drop and will bounce. ES typically "runs" in a 5 point increment. i.e. when it runs, it quickly runs for 5 points. I would imagine the Dow would be about 40-45 points at a time. I set my buy orders at the mirror low anchored about the earlier low 1088, which made it about 1083 or so. But it didn't move that low and price started bouncing.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from PatientOperator:

So you set both a buy and a sell stop order to cover both sides of the breakout?

That would be the plan. I normally assume I'll be awake and focused to get into the trade at right moment.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from Bolimomo:

I was pretty sure this was a fake drop and will bounce. ES typically "runs" in a 5 point increment. i.e. when it runs, it quickly runs for 5 points. I would imagine the Dow would be about 40-45 points at a time. I set my buy orders at the mirror low anchored about the earlier low 1088, which made it about 1083 or so. But it didn't move that low and price started bouncing.

Boli, I was wondering why the buying kicked in at the 1085 level. My favorite Master of the Obscure Trend Line, pointed it out to me: Draw a trend line from 1:30 low through 5:30 low on your chart and look where it leads.

 

[Matcha]

Finish the day early. Because I am approaching daily limit.

Another losing day. Most of my entries are wrong. The direction is right, but I had hard time to get the entry right. It’s the typical “Matcha’s all over the place day”.

I have had a lot of challenges reading multiple time frames and the momentum indicators on each chart. It’s a bit frustrating lately. If I make sure everything is perfectly lined up in my direction, I get in late and can’t seem to be able to hold the trade very long. If I don’t wait everything lined up perfectly, then I got in at a very bad place. Then my stops are constantly hit.

Is it normal that the more I trade, the more I learn, the more confusion I get? Or it’s because of my lack of skill set and experience. One thing I know is I really don’t know how to properly use all the indicators and price actions together to play an orchestra. Looking at my trading plan now, I still see lots of flaws in it….

I need to stay in SIM longer.

The only thing I did right today is to stay with long side most of time. Because 60 min momentum is up, trend is up. TRIN isn’t trading too bearish. Wandering around 1.00-1.36. To be able to “anticipate” which side I am going to play can add some edge into my trading life. I didn’t have that “common sense” 2 weeks ago! A little bit to celebrate and encourage myself this weekend! Whoo-Hoo!!

OK! Here are some bad trades for today to log in my journal.

TRADE A:
Market open formed a D/B with YTD Pivot low, then retrace almost 100% back to form a double bottom pullback, enter when price cross above EMA. Then I set my target to 10350(measured move), but price didn’t break the base very far, not yet. It came back run my stop. Gave away all the profit. I didn’t trail the stop, only set it on a b/e point…

Then around 10PST, after the Euro bank stress test news. Market rallied into my target level. So I developed a very bullish bias. I chase the breakout, chase the pullback. But none of them works for me. I then took a short trade around 12:30Pst, it ran my large stop.

Today’s PnL: -$209, 8 trades, 25%winrate

Weekly result:
PnL: -$164
Avg # of trades per day: 7
Winrate:42%
Comment: Continue to work on using multiple time frame, no over trades

I like to review my journal and trades on every Saturday afternoon then flip through some books in bookstore. Lately I had some very little “aha moment” by repeatedly reading Boli’s daily analysis, Nodoji’s comments and comparing with my trades! I found the best book I have ever read is my journal now. I am glad I really take the time writing this journal and keep reading it and taking all the notes every Saturday. And many thanks to everyone who contribute to my journal! But please be patient to me. To transfer “little aha” every Saturday to “big AHA” at the market hours, I need more time… At market, things just don’t click very well to me

Anyway, my favorite show “Mad Men S4” is on this Sunday! Best show ever!! John Hamm is my latest crush!

Have a great weekend, every one!

 

[Matcha]

Quote from Bolimomo:

I gotta make one more remark on today's move. We knew it was a very bullish day, with TRIN = 0.6 and all. I also noticed that ES had made several attempts to break high (but failed). 2 in the early morning, around 8:00 am and 9:00 am. Then it was stuck in a tight range. After the doldrums was over, It had made another attempt at 11:30 am and failed. One more time (fourth time now) at around 12:15 pm. I knew that if this time it doesn't break clean, it will reverse somewhat. Because the bulls were frustrated. Many will want to hold on to the profits from the early morning before the day is over.

Not much drop at 12:30 pm. I knew some of these robots are going to engineer a "sell off". They probably position themselves with massive shorts on the liquid caps like AAPL, GS, AMZN, GOOG, BIDU, etc.. which follow the market closely tick-for-tick. Then they would sell, sell, sell on the S&P futures (futures are easier to manipulate, with high margin, high liquidity, fast movements). Then the landslide started. S&P dropped fluidly for 5-7 points starting at 12:35 pm. Then these robots will buy back all the stocks.

I was pretty sure this was a fake drop and will bounce. ES typically "runs" in a 5 point increment. i.e. when it runs, it quickly runs for 5 points. I would imagine the Dow would be about 40-45 points at a time. I set my buy orders at the mirror low anchored about the earlier low 1088, which made it about 1083 or so. But it didn't move that low and price started bouncing.

How did you "know" what those robots are doing? How did you anticipate their move? Hmmm..... Can you teach me?

Today after rally up. Dow made 2 attempts to break the high 10395-R2 level (@11:00ish and 12ish). Then it made the fake sell off again,just like yesterday and 7/13. The degree of the drop is about 55 pts. Not that fluid, but the strength of the drop is about the same. The it quikly ralleyed back....

I bought 2 false breakout. Then I short at the fluid sell off but was stopped out by 12:30 volatility...

Can I summarize to this characteristics to:

Generally, Usually, after dow had 2-3 stage very bullish rally , then stuck into the range for more than 2 hours. If it made 2 or more attempts to break the high but failed. Market would most likely sell off fluidly, The depth of the sell off would be around 40-50. Then market will rally back. In all, it's a Failed Failure...
All this would happen at the later session before market close, because Long need to hold the positions after failed to break the high. Robots would initiate a sell-off. Then buy back when they see price drop to around 40-50 Pts.

 

[dandxg]

Matcha I just watched today. This wasn't easy at all with Stress Test and Friday on a summer day. August can even be worse. Don't feel bad is what I am saying. Al Brooks said it was challenging for him too.

 

[Matcha]

Quote from dandxg:

Matcha I just watched today. This wasn't easy at all with Stress Test and Friday on a summer day. August can even be worse. Don't feel bad is what I am saying. Al Brooks said it was challenging for him too.

Thank you! At least good for practice.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from dandxg:

Matcha I just watched today. This wasn't easy at all with Stress Test and Friday on a summer day. August can even be worse. Don't feel bad is what I am saying. Al Brooks said it was challenging for him too.

Glad to hear that. I didn't trade at all before the news because I had an irrational fear that the stress test results would be announced early or leaked out and there would be a huge market move against whatever position I, personally, was in

Then after the news, what an indecipherable mess in CL. Maybe a scalper's dream, but I scalped my way to -$3.86 with 3 scratch trades that all looked really good at first until they whipped right back to my entry price. I totally lost focus after that and basically called it a day as far as actual trading was concerned. Of course that's when the good moves occurred :eek: