Matcha's Dow E-mini Journal

[NoDoji]

Quote from Picaso:

No more second thoughts. You see it, you trade it. Period.

You'll thank me later

Just ordered it on Amazon!

You've definitely read my journal because here are actual excerpts from it:

"Shorted ES twice on lower highs after some serious whack-a-mole action at the top."

"Later after the news I noticed that whack-a-mole action when price rallied to 1102.00, sold off, then tested again and sold off 1100.50."

"It was like Whack-a-Mole every time the market attempted to establish support and move up"

Thank you right now for locating that last remaining tool needed to complete my arsenal!

 

[Bolimomo]

This is the AAPL 42-tick chart on 7/16/10.

Is that the whack-a-mole trade? Keep hitting it whenever the gopher pokes his head around the resistance 252.80?

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from Bolimomo:

This is the AAPL 42-tick chart on 7/16/10.

Is that the whack-a-mole trade? Keep hitting it whenever the gopher pokes his head around the resistance 252.80?

Holy Whack-a-Moley, Boli!

You trade that??? A 42-tick chart??? You must've felt like you entered a time warp the other day. Now I understand

 

[Bolimomo]

Quote from NoDoji:


You trade that??? A 42-tick chart??? You must've felt like you entered a time warp the other day. Now I understand

What can I say? I am an arcade game addict, itching on the trigger finger!

This is my trading computer keypad:

Belkin n52t

 

[Matcha]

Quote from Bolimomo:

......
How far will it go? (This is your homework. Due Monday.)....

How far it goes? Hmmm. Here are just a beginner’s “anticipation”. All of them are not predictions. I am not trying to predict. I am just trying to prepare how to react when market does it’s thing. Know myself, know the battle field first. Plus I am turning on my homework to SIFU before Monday.

Scenario #1:
I am using ES chart in TOS, so you know what I am talking about. For experienced trader who is looking at this analysis, please don’t laugh. Any constructive advice is welcomed. For starters, please please DO NOT copy your trade from my shallow amateur analysis.

Daily ES chart.
1. The turning point has been established for a while( since 4/28). this is the FIB 61.8% of the previous retrace. So for medium long term. Bear is more in control.
2. On this chart, I saw the confluent zone #1(orange box) @ 1006 zone. This level is a significant S level. This level has been tested twice lately. (7/1 and 7/6)
3. Confluent zone #2 is 23.6 and 61.8 area, 872 level
By looking at this chart. Price could come down to: (in a long run)
Level 1. 1006 level. I am looking for it comes down again forming a double bottom, then retrace up. This is also a confluent zone #1
Level 2. 990. The lower channel. On chart #2. Obviously, we are channeling down. So I would be very careful when price comes down to the lower channel as support.

If price broke the down side channel then pullback, then send me a strong bearish trend signal bar. I will continue to short . My next target will be doing a measured move.
Level 3: around 900. this level is in-between confluent zone 872 and 50% fib 940. Although this could be very aggressive.
It would be horrible if that really happened….

 

[Matcha]

chart 2

 

[Matcha]

Senario #2: This scenario is more inclined to short term, Price now stalls at 38% retrace(finished 4 legs move down). Next Monday price “might” retrace up. If price next week continue to sell off:
Level 1: 1054, Measured move from top high to low. (1098-1076),yellow line
Level 2: 1039. 61.8 fib
Level 3: 1023. Measured leg move down. Green line. If the first green line leg is valid.

chart 3

Senario #3. If price rallys back up at the current level 1063, or at 1054 and then broke the up channel line. Then I will have to switch gears and come up with some other “anticipations”.

Right now everything looks very bearish. …

 

[Matcha]

Again, all of them are for learning purpose. I don't trade ES, only Dow. I am using ES chart on TOS. Just because I don't have ES data feed in Tradestation.

It took me 3X more time to draw those lines in TOS then in TS.... TOS better update their drawing and charting functions!!!!

Any comment from anyone is welcomed! Or you found I didn't use FIB,S/R, measured move properly. Or my thought process is way off. Please feel free to point out!

 

[Matcha]

Quote from NoDoji:

That's the biggest challenge for everyone, because to be able to do that would indicate you're psychic, and if you were psychic you'd own the market.

By the time you identify what kind of day it will be, the best part of the trading day is mostly over. We've seen big opening moves completely reverse. We've seen small opening ranges break out. We've seen price trend all day and reverse violently in the last hour; we've seen price make a strong opening move and drift painfully in the same direction the rest of the day (like yesterday).

The way to rise to the challenge is to keep yourself positioned well when there's clarity and on the sidelines when there's lack of clarity. When there's lack of clarity (narrow range), rather than guess where price will go, be prepared to play the breakout, which places you in the direction of price movement.

ic. go with the flow...

 

[Matcha]

Quote from Bolimomo:

I am very proud of you applying the concepts on Friday!

.....1) Matcha you use TradeStation. Take advantage of the large set of chart types. Play with some non time-based charts (RangeBar, Renko, Kagi and Line Break). Those charts are composed based on price movements without consideration of time. They show trends better. And they show a bigger picture than the 1-min charts. Enclosed is a Line Break chart on @ES (3 LB, 3 min).
.....

when I first started out, I tried range bars before I even use Tick and Min chart. I like the way how it's distributed. And I see price moves clearly. And it;s very smooth. The problem for me at that time is, I don't know where the entry is because I don't have an "emotional" read on the bars. And I don;t know where the FIB goes. I don't think I knew what I was doing when I was using them. I think it's a great idea for me now to visit only because I get just a little bit better idea on DOW....

I see your range bar parameters are 3 min interval, 3 points per bar? Nor sure if I read this right. What parameter do you recommend I use for DOW. If my risk is usually 10 points(max.) on 5 min. should I be using 11 points on 5 min interval? risk one bar? Or 5 points per bar on 2 min interval?