Matcha's Dow E-mini Journal

[Went Fishing]

Matcha,

Quote 07-13-10 04:28 PM
Matcha ......"I can’t believe I had a negative day today. Today could be one of the best days for me"…

Hang in there Girl, you're doing GREAT! That was a great entry!

I'm not a big fan of the book Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, however there is a paragraph or two where he talks about changing our (traders) beliefs about hope and fear. He says it's common for traders to FEAR that our profits will go away. And it's common for traders to HOPE our losses won't get any larger.

He suggests we change our thoughts to:
HOPE our PROFIT will INCREASE
&
FEAR our LOSS will INCREASE

Knowing when to take profits is in fact the hardest part of trading. IMO
You're a lucky girl, listen to your "Sifu".

I'll leave you with a story;
You're at the mall, and you have just finished shopping. You walk out to your car and as you put your key in the door you notice, a one hundred dollar bill laying on the ground by the left front tire......What are you going to do? Bend over and PICK IT UP? Or, are you going to go back into the mall,,,,,, shop for another hour or so ,,,, return to your car,,,, and hope there's two hundred dollars laying there !!

I say take every target, you can work on optimizing your profits later. )


<*)))><

PS,,,,,, You guys EAT to much!!

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from Went Fishing:

He suggests we change our thoughts to:
HOPE our PROFIT will INCREASE
&
FEAR our LOSS will INCREASE

Knowing when to take profits is in fact the hardest part of trading. IMO

I say take every target, you can work on optimizing your profits later. )

Beautiful post, WF, thank you for that. I knew I had crossed a hurdle some time ago when I NEVER moved my stop further away, but I sometimes moved my profit target further away.

I found that my targets are generally very good and worth taking profits there! Sure, some will be taken too soon, but that's easily remedied when a trader starts sizing up

 

[Matcha]

Keep losing today…
No trade early morning. I spent the first 2 hours calling Think and Swim and Tradestation trying to figure out the different data showing on Tick and Trin chart between 2 brokers. Wasted the morning with no correct answers found. They couldn’t figure out why and insist their data are both correct… TOS suggested I run different platform in different platform…
Well, I will go with Tradestation. Paying $1 per month is ok… Because Boli is using that too so I know we are looking at the same data.

I started trading from 11:00. saw the sell off took off the low of the day. Staring at the trin and tick the whole time. Not sure if I am just a super slowww learner. Trin and Tick are very difficult read to me today. I remember tip on range bound play when Trin between 0.7 and 2.0. Obviously, I didn’t play that well.

Trade A: 11:22pst . Trade A was a chase trade. Everything signals bearish. Even though it was a 3rd wave on 1 min chart. I went in and short. Luckily I didn’t lose much. Just a scratch trade take my stop to b/e.

Trade B; 11:56pst. long. Tick signals reversal at 11:30Pst. I was waiting for the reversal to S level then pull back. Breakout then pullback trade. The entry was fine. But I was stopped out around 12:15. 10 pts loss.

Trade C: 12:19Pst. Long. Big loss. After the stop was taken out(trade B). I contradicted myself, I though today could be a late day sell off, on larger time frame it could be a leg of pullback. Then one 5 min chart the 20 EMA cross below the 100 EMA… So I flipped to short immediately and didn’t know where I had this guts. I set up a super large stop.
The stop was hit, now it looked as a second push up on 5 min chart, so I went in long. Stop hit again…
Total 28 pts loss….

Trade D: 12:47. Last trade worked. Great 2nd chance pullback setup I normally take.
Took a quick profits since I don’t want hold untill the last minute into close.
22Pts

Although I like the way I am looking at bigger picture now to “accurate” my trades, I still need to go back study how to use them properly. I was a bit all over the place lately.

I think I should try to stay in one side of the trade now…. Maybe I could confuse myself less and take less “every valid setup” .

Today’s PnL: -119, 6 trades, 17% winrate

I am showing 1 min chart today. I spent more time on 1 min chart today to count wave. Plus you can see my entry and exit clearer.

 

[Matcha]

Quote from NoDoji:

I trade CL which moves rather quickly from here to there. My trades last anywhere from 20 seconds to an occasional long term investment of 30-40 minutes

The stock index futures, however, are slower at getting from here to there and occasionally have trend days that are well worth holding through. I, personally, have no idea how to do that. I will work a trend by playing each leg of the trend rather than holding through deep retracements, only through shallow ones (where price does not break through the previous bar's high or low).



From the time I started day trading to becoming consistently profitable was a bit over a year. I've been trying to let winners run for a couple months now and it's been a real struggle to watch so many trades go from $150-$250 profit back to almost nothing. But this is more a result of micromanaging trades and not taking all signals more than anything else. On active trading days I usually have 2-3 winners (that reach my target), 2-3 scratch trades and 1-2 losers.

As of 6/30/10, my ROI was just over 100%.

Thanks for sharing. I see your strategy. Your performance is impressive. With 100% ROI, now you have all free ride!

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from Matcha:

Thanks for sharing. I see your strategy. Your performance is impressive. With 100% ROI, now you have all free ride!

Well, here's how free my ride is: The 100% ROI is almost completely used up after living expenses and some unforeseen medical/dental bills. So my trading account is not too different-looking than it was when the year started :eek:

This explains the difficulty in trading for a living with a small account. I'm a far more conservative trader than I'd be if I had a larger account, or a full-time job that paid the bills, or a very small monthly nut to cover.

 

[Matcha]

Quote from Bolimomo:

Hmmmm.... it doesn't sound right, what you said. Are we looking at the same thing?

On TradeStation, the ticker symbol is "$TRIN" (The NYSE ARMS index), and "$TICK" (number of advancing issues compared to declining issues).

$TRIN... the neutral is 1.0. Bullish is below 1.0 (e.g. 0.5 to 0.3 or even 0.2). But never zero or negative (mathematical impossibility). $TRIN >1.5 is bearish. Especially above 2.0. (Recently I have seen its value as high as 12. But that day it seemed very bogus.)

$TICK on the other hand fluctuates above and below the zero line. >600 is bullish. >1000 is rare... those are market spikes... won't stay >1000 for too long. When you see it >1000, and if the trend is already in the late stage, those are top out reversal times. Conversely, <-500 or so is bearish. <-800 is rare. Market capitulations. Won't stay <-800 for long. I know I know... why not <-1000. The value for $TICK is assymetrical. That's the way it is.

Sorry for confusion,Sifu. I reversed the Trin an Tick. Typo.

I had been using TOS tick and trin charts. I didn't want to pay extra data feed on tradestation during papertrading. But this morning I added the NYSE data feed in Tradestation, I found it's only $1, so it is OK to add! However, with all the real data feeds in both brokers, they read different datas! An obvious example will be, yesterday on tradestation Trin chart, the trin stay below 0.7 all day long. But on TOS Trin chart, yesterday from 10.10-11.30, trin was above 0.7 below 0.85.
Both brokers can't figure out why...

I am going to stay with tradestation at this point. since you are using it.

 

[Matcha]

Quote from Bolimomo:

Matcha:

Win rate is only one measurement. It is not enough. You may have a win rate of 80%. But if you win small and lose big... what we call "eat like a bird and pupu (keeping this G-rated) like an elephant", you won't make it.

In trading there are 4 quadrants - the outcome of each trade:

Win big
Win small
Lose small
Lose big

Over time, the "win small" and "lose small" will negate each other.

You MUST avoid "lose big" at all costs.

Focus on "win big". If you can do this well, the rest will take care of itself.

I had this formula for my style of trading. That's why I focus on winrate, but not only focus on winrate at this point.
I want

high winrate
small loss(high priority)
high probability trades(high-priority)
2:1, 3:1 ratio risk reward.

Now I want to add: let winner runs longer. (this takes longer to learn)

I am not sure if I can work this out soon.
It's the personality and psychology thing. The high win and instant gratificaion increase confidence. I can have better attitude for the next trade....
I like when you say"You MUST avoid "lose big" at all costs."

 

[luckylucy]

hello matcha.
It is not an easy job to daytrade index like today and yesterday. I didn't see many set ups, and when there was one, the R/R was not comfortable to get in.
Although i am not a profitable trader, I may advice that avoiding days like these is part of successful strategy.

 

[luckylucy]

Quote from NoDoji:

Well, here's how free my ride is: The 100% ROI is almost completely used up after living expenses and some unforeseen medical/dental bills. So my trading account is not too different-looking than it was when the year started :eek:

This explains the difficulty in trading for a living with a small account. I'm a far more conservative trader than I'd be if I had a larger account, or a full-time job that paid the bills, or a very small monthly nut to cover.

Nod, I have finished your trading journal. You did really excellent job!

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from Matcha:

Trade A: 11:22pst . Trade A was a chase trade. Everything signals bearish. Even though it was a 3rd wave on 1 min chart. I went in and short. Luckily I didn’t lose much. Just a scratch trade take my stop to b/e.

That trade looked promising. I had a similar pre-market trade in CL, sold a little before the test of the low, went 10 ticks my way, turned out to be a failed b/o and I was out b/e very quickly due to lack of follow through.

My advice on playing a with-trend entry after so many pushes in the trend are already in, is to scalp the move, knowing the other side are likely to be licking their chops looking for a reversal.

Quote from Matcha:

Trade B; 11:56pst. long. Tick signals reversal at 11:30Pst. I was waiting for the reversal to S level then pull back. Breakout then pullback trade. The entry was fine. But I was stopped out around 12:15. 10 pts loss.

I thought your entry was fine, but a reasonable target was the 50% level between the 9:00am high range and the pivot low around 11:30am. Bears will return there to feed.

Quote from Matcha:

Trade C: 12:19Pst. Long. Big loss. After the stop was taken out(trade B). I contradicted myself, I though today could be a late day sell off, on larger time frame it could be a leg of pullback. Then one 5 min chart the 20 EMA cross below the 100 EMA… So I flipped to short immediately and didn’t know where I had this guts. I set up a super large stop.
The stop was hit, now it looked as a second push up on 5 min chart, so I went in long. Stop hit again…
Total 28 pts loss….

My personal opinion is that a large time frame (such as daily) is helpful in the overall bullish/bearish picture, but I use a 5-min chart for setups an signal bars, and cross reference a 1-min chart to see inside the price action, and often get an early entry before the 5-min chart fully signals.

I'm not clear from your chart what happened here. The short looked good, but why would you place a wide stop? It looks like you shorted near 10278? The stop should've been just outside that pivot high (the lower high).

But I'm not sure I understand your entries and exits from looking at the chart.

Quote from Matcha:

Trade D: 12:47. Last trade worked. Great 2nd chance pullback setup I normally take.
Took a quick profits since I don’t want hold untill the last minute into close.
22Pts

This was a very good long signal off a failed breakout. Well played!

Quote from Matcha:

Although I like the way I am looking at bigger picture now to “accurate” my trades, I still need to go back study how to use them properly. I was a bit all over the place lately.

I think I should try to stay in one side of the trade now…. Maybe I could confuse myself less and take less “every valid setup” .

Keep it very simple. Look at pure price action: How many legs in the trend, where will trend followers look to start taking profits, where will the opposing side prepare to strike, wait for confirmation, the second mouse gets the cheese.

I think the only serious mistake you made was placing a wide stop on a trade. A wide stop can be (but isn't necessarily) an indication of trading defects: Directional bias, fear of missing a move, feeling that you need to be in a trade despite lack of a decent entry signal, fatique, and so on.

Almost all my wide stops got hit, and all my major losses came off very wide stops.

If you think of putting on a trade with a wide stop, instead place your limit order at the price where you plan to place that wide stop. Chances are you'll end up in a low-heat trade at almost the best price