Matcha's Dow E-mini Journal

[Bolimomo]

Quote from PatientOperator:


.....
This is the best trading tip of the day from Boli, remember next time before you pull the trigger, visualize those Abalone and Shark Fin soup. It's either that or Campbell Soup!

Ha! LOL!

Of course there is anything the canned "shark fin" soup for USD $5 a can. Flavorful soup with corn starch and mung bean threads... LOL

 

[Bolimomo]

Quote from Matcha:


Today I watched TRIN and TICK almost 1/3 of the time. (Still getting used to it though. )That's how I decided the trade A is a great entry, I was so excited when I saw it shooting up. Then the tick was still low today below 0.7 and above 0.3 after I entered. So I set the OCO order and left my desk, I figured today could be the very bullish day. I am riding the trend without getting out. I would only do long trades.

But after I got back,(after 10:30ish) and saw tick was trading above 0.7, TRIN was coming down below 0, Price is breaking the up trend line and making higher low, Price also formed a double top pattern, Plus I was stopped out, I thought the trend is reversing.... Then I took short trade.... I didn't have that thoughts of buy into the "fluid sell"... so instead I short at the low, and keep shorting...
.....

Hmmmm.... it doesn't sound right, what you said. Are we looking at the same thing?

On TradeStation, the ticker symbol is "$TRIN" (The NYSE ARMS index), and "$TICK" (number of advancing issues compared to declining issues).

$TRIN... the neutral is 1.0. Bullish is below 1.0 (e.g. 0.5 to 0.3 or even 0.2). But never zero or negative (mathematical impossibility). $TRIN >1.5 is bearish. Especially above 2.0. (Recently I have seen its value as high as 12. But that day it seemed very bogus.)

$TICK on the other hand fluctuates above and below the zero line. >600 is bullish. >1000 is rare... those are market spikes... won't stay >1000 for too long. When you see it >1000, and if the trend is already in the late stage, those are top out reversal times. Conversely, <-500 or so is bearish. <-800 is rare. Market capitulations. Won't stay <-800 for long. I know I know... why not <-1000. The value for $TICK is assymetrical. That's the way it is.

 

[~~~]

Quote from Matcha:

Thank you, ~~~! You are so nice! I won't let lady pay for me though! Wow, Heard of Per Se, it's a very nice restaurant. I miss NYC!
Have you been to French Laundry in Napa? I have always wanted to try.

To Matcha & PO.

It's okay for big sister to buy U2 a nice dinner and when you become CP, you can take big sister to eat dim sum & drink tea lol. Hey, i have good appetite, can eat many plates of dim sum and drink many cups of tea, so be prepare lol

Yes, i have been to the French Laundry in Napa. I like California, especailly San Francisco and Sausalito

 

[Bolimomo]

Quote from Matcha:


RE: win rate
...

Matcha:

Win rate is only one measurement. It is not enough. You may have a win rate of 80%. But if you win small and lose big... what we call "eat like a bird and pupu (keeping this G-rated) like an elephant", you won't make it.

In trading there are 4 quadrants - the outcome of each trade:

Win big
Win small
Lose small
Lose big

Over time, the "win small" and "lose small" will negate each other.

You MUST avoid "lose big" at all costs.

Focus on "win big". If you can do this well, the rest will take care of itself.

 

[Bolimomo]

Quote from Matcha:

Dow did drop 40 points at that time. Was there any reason and logic behind "40pts drop from a second push mostly fail"? get in and long after a fluid sell(40points) in a bullish day?

Okay. I wasn't very clear. Here is a chart on SPY today 7/13/10. It's about the same for Dow/DIA.

Left circle: That's the first push. It was a big "gap" up for the general market. (But ES trades 24 hours so there really wasn't a "gap".) Settle slightly at about 8:00 am PDT.

Center circle: At 08:30 am, some traders are going to give somebody a run for their money. But being that it was entering the doldrums, I call these "Bull Day Second Push (implied "up")... will have a high chance of failure. Not a real break out. If you chase the break out on these, you will get stopped out.

But because overall this was still a big bull day (no evidence of a reversal yet)... it will most likely head back higher. The best case is a second break in trending hours (starting around 10:30 am to 11:00 am). Worst case is a forced range bound. At any rate, a long is a better bet.

Right circle: So the best place to long, of course, is a lower price. You watch the lower time-frame (e.g. 100 tick) for a fluid sell. When, in the lower time-frame, things look "very bearish". It will shake the weak bulls out. They will sell you the contracts at a lower price. That's where you move in. Especially after a small "double bottom" after the fluid sell.

The rectangle highlights the fluid sell movement. "Bearish"

 

[Bolimomo]

This chart (SPY, 133 tick) is a blow-up view of the rectangular area, roughly, on the 1min chart. This is the lower time-frame. As I stated earlier, look for a "fluid sell". Market sold down for ES 6 points. Probably Dow down 40-50 points. Count your waves: 1... 2... 3... followed by a "protest". And Adam/Adam Double Bottom. The second bottom at 10:54 was definitely a good place to be on long.

 

[Bolimomo]

Quote from ~~~:

To Matcha & PO.

It's okay for big sister to buy U2 a nice dinner and when you become CP, you can take big sister to eat dim sum & drink tea lol. Hey, i have good appetite, can eat many plates of dim sum and drink many cups of tea, so be prepare lol

Yes, i have been to the French Laundry in Napa. I like California, especailly San Francisco and Sausalito

Wow... me2 me2... a free meal would worth me driving 2 hours out there, whoever pays the bill! French? Or Chinese? I WILL TAKE IT!!!!

 

[~~~]

Quote from Bolimomo:

I am not a pro. ~~~ is a pro. I am just a small potato making a living trading stocks. I don't work on Wall Street. No suit/tie. No cold calls. No desk or inbox. No commute (yay!)

Boli...Thanks for you kind words... i worked very hard & work smart but I am not a billionaire and not even half a billionaire...When i first started, i never dreamed of making it big ... so now i am taking it easy and enjoy my life lol.

You are not a small potato but a trader who choose to lead a solitary and reclusive life. Good for you, amigo! We all love peaceful living....

 

[~~~]

Quote from Bolimomo:

Wow... me2 me2... a free meal would worth me driving 2 hours out there, whoever pays the bill! French? Or Chinese? I WILL TAKE IT!!!!

ha! honestly ... i love Chinese food is always the Best!!! Hey, if 4 of us going for dinner.. it's either you or me pay the bill ( we can toss a coin to decide but if Matcha and PO are CP winners. We make sure they pay the bill for their "mentor" & "big sister" lol

 

[~~~]

Quote from Matcha:



In chinese resraurant, I like to stuff my face and stomach.
I love those Abalone,Shark Fin, Giant Clam(xiang ba bang), crab, sashimi tiger shrimp, steam fish, lobster shashimi and soup..etc! And have that bird nest thing for desert...

Yes, Got to have the CP $500 day to spoil myself in those restaurants now.

haha sweetie.. you have quite a big appetite like me
Yes! food is always a very good incentive for foodie to become CP.
Now have confidence in yourself... with the right attitude.. you can make it happen.