Matcha's Dow E-mini Journal

[Matcha]

Today is one of those “screwed up” day. Didn’t follow the rules.
Turned winners to losers again, set B/E stops prematurely, set up large stop loss. Over trade, make “get even” trades.

Day like today, I should have taken profits quickly. While watching green P/L gets higher, my greed told me to wait. Then I waited, but just in a second, it quickly declined, I was so frustrated and hoped it come back and gets higher. But market was rather volatile, by the time I am willing to take profits, it turned into losses, before I even realized. The whole process repeated itself a few times today.

The last 3 trades were able to minimize my loss although those were revenge trades…

Now I am looking at the chart, everything is so clear.
Trade 1: made the mistake on move stop prematurely
Trade 2, it was a channel up, I should have taken profit quickly on this counter-trend trading

Today -$143, 16 trades, 42% win rate.

Not happy with myself. I have to go back and look at my trades again.

Tomorrow is another day!

 

[Bolimomo]

Yesterday YM and S&P were very bullish.

After a bullish day, my tendency to trade is on the long side. The only question is where to pull the trigger.

If you look at the YM/ES intraday movements... they did have a late morning "bearishness", at 9:30 am PDT.

If you use the closing price from yesterday (forget about the overnight climb)... Today S&P rose about 6 points or so from yesterday's close. Dow about 60 to 70 points. From there it went to a late morning low. Do a measured move (mirror) about the closing price... you get a projected low for the day. That would be a good place to long. The bulls are not going to give up that easy. They will go in and support the indices. (Under normal circumstances). There you have a climb back to net 0.

 

[Matcha]

Quote from Bolimomo:

Yesterday YM and S&P were very bullish.

After a bullish day, my tendency to trade is on the long side. The only question is where to pull the trigger.

If you look at the YM/ES intraday movements... they did have a late morning "bearishness", at 9:30 am PDT.

If you use the closing price from yesterday (forget about the overnight climb)... Today S&P rose about 6 points or so from yesterday's close. Dow about 60 to 70 points. From there it went to a late morning low. Do a measured move (mirror) about the closing price... you get a projected low for the day. That would be a good place to long. The bulls are not going to give up that easy. They will go in and support the indices. (Under normal circumstances). There you have a climb back to net 0.

Very cool! Hopefully I can build up this type of "common sense" soon. Thanks for help again!

 

[Matcha]

It could have been a day to make a great fortune if I had stayed in with the trend. I for sure didn’t catch the opportunity. I continued to take some trades I didn’t think through. And leave wide stops.

The gap open down + first 3 bearish bars indicate the trend for today is highly likely very bearish. The lousy jobless report and Hungary’s problem suddenly becomes the end of the day on CNBC and Market watch signals another sign of bearish day. But I just didn’t have confidence to stay with the trend on such a volatile market… So I jumped in and out. End the day in positive and exhaustion.

Big loss was from counter-trend trade. I need to stop taking Counter-trend trades and reversal trades for now. Those killed most of my profits these days.


+141 for the day, 10 trades, 60% win rate.

Weekly Recap:
PNL: +$380
Win Rate: 48%
Avg Trade Per Day: 12
Mistakes: 5
Cost of Mistakes: $417

Mistakes cost me a lot. Most of them are due to counter-trend trades. I will stay away from those set ups for now.

 

[Bolimomo]

Matcha:

Another "one tip a day" thing from Boli.

Today's mantra is "sell, sell, sell"! From Europe's bearishness overnight, to the job report.

But... it is not that simple.

I alway believe in "3 waves" in a price move. Sometimes 2, sometimes 4, but usually 3.

Take a look at the ES before market opened. (I don't have price feed for YM. So you adjust it.)

The wave 1 and 2 occurred overnight. They corresponded to the European markets down run. 0530... job report... took about 20 points off ES (Dow probably 150-180 points). When our markets opened, it presented a big down gap. I think to chase this down gap and short is very risky. Because the price run had already done a 3-wave move. I would short aggressively if it were in wave 1 or 2. But not at 3.

See the bulls gathered and held up the market right after the open.

But from my experience... this kind of counter trend run would last about 60 minutes, max. See how ES ran back up to around 1087. Trade for a retest low.

That's probably a 80-100 Dow points.

 

[Bolimomo]

Also, if you do a mirror about the overnight congestions, the 100% for ES would be around 1080. ES opened at about that point. To short at that price point is very risky because price has already done a 2-stage run. Wait for price to come back a little bit (or try fade the down gap) then short would be safer.

 

[Matcha]

Quote from Bolimomo:

Also, if you do a mirror about the overnight congestions, the 100% for ES would be around 1080. ES opened at about that point. To short at that price point is very risky because price has already done a 2-stage run. Wait for price to come back a little bit (or try fade the down gap) then short would be safer.
[/QUOTE

Wow, thanks for the tip. Please continue to share tips

 

[~~~]

Hi Matcha

Got your PM and Sorry for the late-reply. I am not a Shanghainese but a "Huaqiao"(overseas Chinese). My grandparents came from a poor village of the southern province in China.(My ancestors village now is not a poor village anymore, i went back to visit in 2005, most people >90% live in 4-storey big hse now) My parents were extremely hard-working and resilence, intelligence and full of courage ... and i am glad i inherited some of these good qualities from my parents.

beside good at TA and FA.. to be a successful trader ... one needs to work not only hard but must work-smart.. intelligence alone will not be enough... work-smart and street-smart, resilient and full of courage...mental-toughness and be resourceful... to have a very good mentor by yourside is definitely a big plus..

We trade the asia market, stocks, oil & gold, dow and naq ..but we are not day-trader. We only go in the market when we anticipate a big move, high volatility etc. I am good at catching trend and reading charts ..plus i had a Very Good Mentor, so i was Lucky.

Good Luck to you Matcha and have a good weekend.

 

[dst888]

Quote from ~~~:

Hi Matcha

Got your PM and Sorry for the late-reply. I am not a Shanghainese but a "Huaqiao"(overseas Chinese). My grandparents came from a poor village of the southern province in China.(My ancestors village now is not a poor village anymore, i went back to visit in 2005, most people >90% live in 4-storey big hse now) My parents were extremely hard-working and resilence, intelligence and full of courage ... and i am glad i inherited some of these good qualities from my parents.

beside good at TA and FA.. to be a successful trader ... one needs to work not only hard but must work-smart.. intelligence alone will not be enough... work-smart and street-smart, resilient and full of courage...mental-toughness and be resourceful... to have a very good mentor by yourside is definitely a big plus..

We trade the asia market, stocks, oil & gold, dow and naq ..but we are not day-trader. We only go in the market when we anticipate a big move, high volatility etc. I am good at catching trend and reading charts ..plus i had a Very Good Mentor, so i was Lucky.

Good Luck to you Matcha and have a good weekend.

Do you mind telling us about how you found/met your Mentor? You learned from him/her in person or by seminar, training program or any other communication vehicles?
Thanks.

 

[Matcha]

Quote from ~~~:

Hi Matcha

Got your PM and Sorry for the late-reply. I am not a Shanghainese but a "Huaqiao"(overseas Chinese). My grandparents came from a poor village of the southern province in China.(My ancestors village now is not a poor village anymore, i went back to visit in 2005, most people >90% live in 4-storey big hse now) My parents were extremely hard-working and resilence, intelligence and full of courage ... and i am glad i inherited some of these good qualities from my parents.

beside good at TA and FA.. to be a successful trader ... one needs to work not only hard but must work-smart.. intelligence alone will not be enough... work-smart and street-smart, resilient and full of courage...mental-toughness and be resourceful... to have a very good mentor by yourside is definitely a big plus..

We trade the asia market, stocks, oil & gold, dow and naq ..but we are not day-trader. We only go in the market when we anticipate a big move, high volatility etc. I am good at catching trend and reading charts ..plus i had a Very Good Mentor, so i was Lucky.

Good Luck to you Matcha and have a good weekend.

~~~:
Thanks for replying me back. Always nice to know traders in Asia market I can learn from.
I agree with the mentorship part. You are very lucky. Great mentorship can save a trader so much time and finance in learning process. I had been searching a mentor on my own a while back, including attending trading schools, seminars, but now I decided to do it on my own.
However, I still want to get some constructive feedback from experienced traders. That's why I started this thread to learn from great traders on ET and also keep myself disciplined. I also hope new traders can learn from my mistakes. I have to say so far I am so grateful that I met Bolimomo who read my post everyday and gave me his insights and tips here. I also met a few traders on ET who pointed me to the right direction to start. Those I considered my "mentors"(who I never met).
If one day I could be a profitable trader, I would like to help new traders too.
Asia market is so exciting. Can same chart reading, price action, chart patterns, same methodology be applicable in that market too? Or should I say the mass psychology and human behavior are same as US market?
Matcha