master trading system
- Thread starter junkone
- Start date
never should use systematic method to do trading.
market never fits any system. look at those trending up market, you will find there is many versions of market going up.
some straight up, some climb three steps, retrace 2 steps, then sideway 3days, 7 days, half month and nowhere, some just gap up, gap up. some just keep printing green bars continuiously.
never should generalize the market. treat each market individually, find its particular personlity, then find suitable strategy to trade.
C is trending up, FB is too. FSLR too. but when exmine them individually, you know they climb in different ways.
AAPL is trending down, MCP too. but they are way different.
those guys are looking for systems, are those who are in academy. or those who want to sell software blackbox trading systems. just politely say to those sales person, no thanks, if that thing can work like ATM, oh, keep it yourself.
NEVER NEVER should trade individual market systematically. that is for sure to lose.
so there is no mastering trading system problem. the problem is master trading itself: interpret the market condition correctly, what is the market focus, how the market is thinking, what will the market bet on... all intelligently questions, not no brainer questions.
market never fits any system. look at those trending up market, you will find there is many versions of market going up.
some straight up, some climb three steps, retrace 2 steps, then sideway 3days, 7 days, half month and nowhere, some just gap up, gap up. some just keep printing green bars continuiously.
never should generalize the market. treat each market individually, find its particular personlity, then find suitable strategy to trade.
C is trending up, FB is too. FSLR too. but when exmine them individually, you know they climb in different ways.
AAPL is trending down, MCP too. but they are way different.
those guys are looking for systems, are those who are in academy. or those who want to sell software blackbox trading systems. just politely say to those sales person, no thanks, if that thing can work like ATM, oh, keep it yourself.
NEVER NEVER should trade individual market systematically. that is for sure to lose.
so there is no mastering trading system problem. the problem is master trading itself: interpret the market condition correctly, what is the market focus, how the market is thinking, what will the market bet on... all intelligently questions, not no brainer questions.
Those differences you refer to are collectively known as "context". Profitable automated systems are programmed to take context into account, just as a profitable discretionary trader does the same.
Context is how the market was thinking in the recent and distant past. There's no way to accurately predict how the market will act from right now forward; however, based on recent price action and longer term price action (context) an experienced trader/programmer can follow specific rules that will provide a profitable edge over series' of trades.
I lost money by not trading systematically. Once I learned to trade systematically the profits began to appear daily (I'm a scalper). I'm in regular contact with quite a few traders and the tiny minority who are consistently profitable are either fully automated or systematically follow specific rules.
My systematic trading is so net profitable and my forays into the occasional unplanned trades so net unprofitable that I've shortened the phrase "Out-Of-Plan trades" to OOPs.
There is great danger in trying to interpret what a market thinks. The market is what the market is. The market does not have to make sense to a profitable trader. To approach each trade entry on a case-by-case basis - relying upon your own objectivity or discretionary impulses or reasoning about the market psyche each time, and devoid of a framework or "system" is simply not viable. I would contend that from what I have seen through the years human beings are simply not capable of discretionary consistency over time and through the constantly changing market conditions and cycles.
Every profitable trader that I have ever personally seen has a system. Scalpers, spreaders, arbitrageurs, automatons, thieves and cheats - they have all developed and refined repeatable results and by definition it has to be called a system.
I am a contrarian. most things on table are obvious to everyone. so there is no sense to focus on. I look both ways, just like cross a street.
of course, if you want to make money. the only way is you stand in the right side of the market. whether you trade systematically or not, if you trade against the right side. no matter how systematic, you still lose. that is why I said, there is no need to care about systematic. making money and stand at the right side of the market is always your top NO.1 priority.
just like driving a car, only you drive properly, then you may reduce the accident chance.
you may dive slow, but that causes accident too.
you may drive fast, it may avoid accident, since someone drives and talks, slow, careless.
did you see systematic? no. it all depends on the road conditions, and those drivers's habit. based on different road conditions and other drivers's driving habits, adjust your driving style, you are safer than a robert drives ignoring what is going on on the real roads.
if I let a robert to drive for me, I will scare to death.
how you drive is not so important, your safe trip is the critical part!
weeks ago, I saw HLF drop hard, I read a bit of news about HLF, I figured out it is just a fake move. I bought it at cheapeast, late I bought HLF call options and made lots of money on the way up.
normally I just trade strong trends either up/down. I shorted AAPL from 680 when everyone talked 1000. still hold 300shares of short sale of AAPL. now I started to short FSLR/BAC/PSX.
kind of jump around. but I know where those big winners are at my hand!
never marry to a symbol, your opinion, your system, your holding (when AAPL started to trend up again, I have no hesistation to cover),... in trading, only one rule: do not put yourself in a losing situation, try best to go into winning situation. others are not important. as how, ways, all are superfical. making money efficiently is always your top no.1 priority
of course, if you want to make money. the only way is you stand in the right side of the market. whether you trade systematically or not, if you trade against the right side. no matter how systematic, you still lose. that is why I said, there is no need to care about systematic. making money and stand at the right side of the market is always your top NO.1 priority.
just like driving a car, only you drive properly, then you may reduce the accident chance.
you may dive slow, but that causes accident too.
you may drive fast, it may avoid accident, since someone drives and talks, slow, careless.
did you see systematic? no. it all depends on the road conditions, and those drivers's habit. based on different road conditions and other drivers's driving habits, adjust your driving style, you are safer than a robert drives ignoring what is going on on the real roads.
if I let a robert to drive for me, I will scare to death.
how you drive is not so important, your safe trip is the critical part!
weeks ago, I saw HLF drop hard, I read a bit of news about HLF, I figured out it is just a fake move. I bought it at cheapeast, late I bought HLF call options and made lots of money on the way up.
normally I just trade strong trends either up/down. I shorted AAPL from 680 when everyone talked 1000. still hold 300shares of short sale of AAPL. now I started to short FSLR/BAC/PSX.
kind of jump around. but I know where those big winners are at my hand!
never marry to a symbol, your opinion, your system, your holding (when AAPL started to trend up again, I have no hesistation to cover),... in trading, only one rule: do not put yourself in a losing situation, try best to go into winning situation. others are not important. as how, ways, all are superfical. making money efficiently is always your top no.1 priority
in the past, I traded sweet crude CL, NG, ES, did lots of day trading. but I found those vehicles are not suitable any more. I anbandoned them. of course, when they show some behaviors I like, I occasionally trade them, but not day trade. I want to ride a winner as hard as I can.
the big problem with futures is they ask for margin. that is what I hate. I know my timing skill is not so good, I need time to let the market work toward my winning odd. but I have bright trading ideas, and my market selection is super good. I can easily pindown a strong up/down market, then I want to stay as long as as I can, but in a trending market, there is corrections. those pullbacks may hit my margin calls (I do big size, one time I traded 33 contracts of sweet crude contracts my tiny account intra margin maximum). so I could not trade BIG, if I can not trade big, my profitability reduced greatly. I want to harvest big on a great idea.
then I dump my profit into my cash account, buy strong trending up stocks. I hold FB (buy from 23) almost 10k shares.
so I do not trade anything with margin requirements. I do not want to let my broker control how I make trading decision.
I kind of switch around. when things change, I siwtch, adjust my startegies. I found I am very successful.
I am not a robert. I am an intelligent bright trader.
the big problem with futures is they ask for margin. that is what I hate. I know my timing skill is not so good, I need time to let the market work toward my winning odd. but I have bright trading ideas, and my market selection is super good. I can easily pindown a strong up/down market, then I want to stay as long as as I can, but in a trending market, there is corrections. those pullbacks may hit my margin calls (I do big size, one time I traded 33 contracts of sweet crude contracts my tiny account intra margin maximum). so I could not trade BIG, if I can not trade big, my profitability reduced greatly. I want to harvest big on a great idea.
then I dump my profit into my cash account, buy strong trending up stocks. I hold FB (buy from 23) almost 10k shares.
so I do not trade anything with margin requirements. I do not want to let my broker control how I make trading decision.
I kind of switch around. when things change, I siwtch, adjust my startegies. I found I am very successful.
I am not a robert. I am an intelligent bright trader.
Those 2 statements dont go together (OXYMORON ) for intelligent bright traders NEVER EVER get margin calls . My #1 rule as a trader is not negotiable
NEVER EVER get a margin call , dont even get close
Those who get margin calls arent traders , they are GAMBLERS and gamblers blow up regularly and id like to thank them for their donations
PS ... for the morons out there a margin call liquidation is not a substitute for a stop loss